On Automating the Doctrine of Double Effect

The doctrine of double effect ($\mathcal{DDE}$) is a long-studied ethical principle that governs when actions that have both positive and negative effects are to be allowed. The goal in this paper is to automate $\mathcal{DDE}$. We briefly present $\mathcal{DDE}$, and use a first-order modal logic, the deontic cognitive event calculus, as our framework to formalize the doctrine. We present formalizations of increasingly stronger versions of the principle, including what is known as the doctrine of triple effect. We then use our framework to simulate successfully scenarios that have been used to test for the presence of the principle in human subjects. Our framework can be used in two different modes: One can use it to build $\mathcal{DDE}$-compliant autonomous systems from scratch, or one can use it to verify that a given AI system is $\mathcal{DDE}$-compliant, by applying a $\mathcal{DDE}$ layer on an existing system or model. For the latter mode, the underlying AI system can be built using any architecture (planners, deep neural networks, bayesian networks, knowledge-representation systems, or a hybrid); as long as the system exposes a few parameters in its model, such verification is possible. The role of the $\mathcal{DDE}$ layer here is akin to a (dynamic or static) software verifier that examines existing software modules. Finally, we end by presenting initial work on how one can apply our $\mathcal{DDE}$ layer to the STRIPS-style planning model, and to a modified POMDP model.This is preliminary work to illustrate the feasibility of the second mode, and we hope that our initial sketches can be useful for other researchers in incorporating DDE in their own frameworks.Comment: 26th International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence 2017; Special Track on AI & Autonom

Automatic Probabilistic Program Verification through Random Variable Abstraction

The weakest pre-expectation calculus has been proved to be a mature theory to analyze quantitative properties of probabilistic and nondeterministic programs. We present an automatic method for proving quantitative linear properties on any denumerable state space using iterative backwards fixed point calculation in the general framework of abstract interpretation. In order to accomplish this task we present the technique of random variable abstraction (RVA) and we also postulate a sufficient condition to achieve exact fixed point computation in the abstract domain. The feasibility of our approach is shown with two examples, one obtaining the expected running time of a probabilistic program, and the other the expected gain of a gambling strategy. Our method works on general guarded probabilistic and nondeterministic transition systems instead of plain pGCL programs, allowing us to easily model a wide range of systems including distributed ones and unstructured programs. We present the operational and weakest precondition semantics for this programs and prove its equivalence

Formally justified and modular Bayesian inference for probabilistic programs

Probabilistic modelling offers a simple and coherent framework to describe the real world in the face of uncertainty. Furthermore, by applying Bayes' rule it is possible to use probabilistic models to make inferences about the state of the world from partial observations. While traditionally probabilistic models were constructed on paper, more recently the approach of probabilistic programming enables users to write the models in executable languages resembling computer programs and to freely mix them with deterministic code. It has long been recognised that the semantics of programming languages is complicated and the intuitive understanding that programmers have is often inaccurate, resulting in difficult to understand bugs and unexpected program behaviours. Programming languages are therefore studied in a rigorous way using formal languages with mathematically defined semantics. Traditionally formal semantics of probabilistic programs are defined using exact inference results, but in practice exact Bayesian inference is not tractable and approximate methods are used instead, posing a question of how the results of these algorithms relate to the exact results. Correctness of such approximate methods is usually argued somewhat less rigorously, without reference to a formal semantics. In this dissertation we formally develop denotational semantics for probabilistic programs that correspond to popular sampling algorithms often used in practice. The semantics is defined for an expressive typed lambda calculus with higher-order functions and inductive types, extended with probabilistic effects for sampling and conditioning, allowing continuous distributions and unbounded likelihoods. It makes crucial use of the recently developed formalism of quasi-Borel spaces to bring all these elements together. We provide semantics corresponding to several variants of Markov chain Monte Carlo and Sequential Monte Carlo methods and formally prove a notion of correctness for these algorithms in the context of probabilistic programming. We also show that the semantic construction can be directly mapped to an implementation using established functional programming abstractions called monad transformers. We develop a compact Haskell library for probabilistic programming closely corresponding to the semantic construction, giving users a high level of assurance in the correctness of the implementation. We also demonstrate on a collection of benchmarks that the library offers performance competitive with existing systems of similar scope. An important property of our construction, both the semantics and the implementation, is the high degree of modularity it offers. All the inference algorithms are constructed by combining small building blocks in a setup where the type system ensures correctness of compositions. We show that with basic building blocks corresponding to vanilla Metropolis-Hastings and Sequential Monte Carlo we can implement more advanced algorithms known in the literature, such as Resample-Move Sequential Monte Carlo, Particle Marginal Metropolis-Hastings, and Sequential Monte Carlo squared. These implementations are very concise, reducing the effort required to produce them and the scope for bugs. On top of that, our modular construction enables in some cases deterministic testing of randomised inference algorithms, further increasing reliability of the implementation.Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Cambridge Trust, Cambridge-Tuebingen programm

The emergence of French statistics. How mathematics entered the world of statistics in France during the 1920s

This paper concerns the emergence of modern mathematical statistics in France after the First World War. Emile Borel's achievements are presented, and especially his creation of two institutions where mathematical statistics was developed: the {\it Statistical Institute of Paris University}, (ISUP) in 1922 and above all the {\it Henri Poincar\'e Institute} (IHP) in 1928. At the IHP, a new journal {\it Annales de l'Institut Henri Poincar\'e} was created in 1931. We discuss the first papers in that journal dealing with mathematical statistics

A Taxonomy of Causality-Based Biological Properties

We formally characterize a set of causality-based properties of metabolic networks. This set of properties aims at making precise several notions on the production of metabolites, which are familiar in the biologists' terminology. From a theoretical point of view, biochemical reactions are abstractly represented as causal implications and the produced metabolites as causal consequences of the implication representing the corresponding reaction. The fact that a reactant is produced is represented by means of the chain of reactions that have made it exist. Such representation abstracts away from quantities, stoichiometric and thermodynamic parameters and constitutes the basis for the characterization of our properties. Moreover, we propose an effective method for verifying our properties based on an abstract model of system dynamics. This consists of a new abstract semantics for the system seen as a concurrent network and expressed using the Chemical Ground Form calculus. We illustrate an application of this framework to a portion of a real metabolic pathway