Forecasting bus passenger flows by using a clustering-based support vector regression approach

As a significant component of the intelligent transportation system, forecasting bus passenger flows plays a key role in resource allocation, network planning, and frequency setting. However, it remains challenging to recognize high fluctuations, nonlinearity, and periodicity of bus passenger flows due to varied destinations and departure times. For this reason, a novel forecasting model named as affinity propagation-based support vector regression (AP-SVR) is proposed based on clustering and nonlinear simulation. For the addressed approach, a clustering algorithm is first used to generate clustering-based intervals. A support vector regression (SVR) is then exploited to forecast the passenger flow for each cluster, with the use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) for obtaining the optimized parameters. Finally, the prediction results of the SVR are rearranged by chronological order rearrangement. The proposed model is tested using real bus passenger data from a bus line over four months. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model performs better than other peer models in terms of absolute percentage error and mean absolute percentage error. It is recommended that the deterministic clustering technique with stable cluster results (AP) can improve the forecasting performance significantly.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Short-Term Forecasting of Passenger Demand under On-Demand Ride Services: A Spatio-Temporal Deep Learning Approach

Short-term passenger demand forecasting is of great importance to the on-demand ride service platform, which can incentivize vacant cars moving from over-supply regions to over-demand regions. The spatial dependences, temporal dependences, and exogenous dependences need to be considered simultaneously, however, which makes short-term passenger demand forecasting challenging. We propose a novel deep learning (DL) approach, named the fusion convolutional long short-term memory network (FCL-Net), to address these three dependences within one end-to-end learning architecture. The model is stacked and fused by multiple convolutional long short-term memory (LSTM) layers, standard LSTM layers, and convolutional layers. The fusion of convolutional techniques and the LSTM network enables the proposed DL approach to better capture the spatio-temporal characteristics and correlations of explanatory variables. A tailored spatially aggregated random forest is employed to rank the importance of the explanatory variables. The ranking is then used for feature selection. The proposed DL approach is applied to the short-term forecasting of passenger demand under an on-demand ride service platform in Hangzhou, China. Experimental results, validated on real-world data provided by DiDi Chuxing, show that the FCL-Net achieves better predictive performance than traditional approaches including both classical time-series prediction models and neural network based algorithms (e.g., artificial neural network and LSTM). This paper is one of the first DL studies to forecast the short-term passenger demand of an on-demand ride service platform by examining the spatio-temporal correlations.Comment: 39 pages, 10 figure

Short-Term Traffic Prediction Based on Genetic Algorithm Improved Neural Network

This paper takes the time series of short-term traffic flow as research object. The delay time and embedding dimension are calculated by C-C algorithm, and the chaotic characteristics of the time series are verified by small data sets method.Then based on the neural network prediction model and the chaotic phase space reconstruction theory, the network topology is determined, and the prediction is conducted by the wavelet neural network and RBF neural network using Lan-Hai expressway experimental data. The results show that the prediction effect of RBF neural network is better. Due to the poor stability of the network caused by the initial parameters randomness, the genetic algorithm is used to optimize the initial parameters. The results show that the prediction error of the optimized wavelet neural network or RBF neural network is reduced by more than 10%, and prediction accuracy of the latter is better

AN APPROACH OF TRAFFIC FLOW PREDICTION USING ARIMA MODEL WITH FUZZY WAVELET TRANSFORM

It is essential for intelligent transportation systems to be capable of producing an accurate forecast of traffic flow in both the short and long terms. However, the counting datasets of traffic volume are non-stationary time series, which are integrally noisy. As a result, the accuracy of traffic prediction carried out on such unrefined data is reduced by the arbitrary components. A prior study shows that Box-Jenkins’ Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models convey demand of noise-free dataset for model construction. Therefore, this study proposes to overcome the noise issue by using a hybrid approach that combines the ARIMA model with fuzzy wavelet transform. In this approach, fuzzy rules are developed to categorize traffic datasets according to influencing factors such as the time of a day, the season of a year, and weather conditions. As the input of linear data series for ARIMA model needs to be converted into linear time series for traffic flow prediction, the discrete wavelet transform is applied to help separating the nonlinear and linear part of the time series along with denoised time series traffic data