Uncertainty-Aware Workload Prediction in Cloud Computing

Predicting future resource demand in Cloud Computing is essential for managing Cloud data centres and guaranteeing customers a minimum Quality of Service (QoS) level. Modelling the uncertainty of future demand improves the quality of the prediction and reduces the waste due to overallocation. In this paper, we propose univariate and bivariate Bayesian deep learning models to predict the distribution of future resource demand and its uncertainty. We design different training scenarios to train these models, where each procedure is a different combination of pretraining and fine-tuning steps on multiple datasets configurations. We also compare the bivariate model to its univariate counterpart training with one or more datasets to investigate how different components affect the accuracy of the prediction and impact the QoS. Finally, we investigate whether our models have transfer learning capabilities. Extensive experiments show that pretraining with multiple datasets boosts performances while fine-tuning does not. Our models generalise well on related but unseen time series, proving transfer learning capabilities. Runtime performance analysis shows that the models are deployable in real-world applications. For this study, we preprocessed twelve datasets from real-world traces in a consistent and detailed way and made them available to facilitate the research in this field

Towards Data-Driven Autonomics in Data Centers

Continued reliance on human operators for managing data centers is a major impediment for them from ever reaching extreme dimensions. Large computer systems in general, and data centers in particular, will ultimately be managed using predictive computational and executable models obtained through data-science tools, and at that point, the intervention of humans will be limited to setting high-level goals and policies rather than performing low-level operations. Data-driven autonomics, where management and control are based on holistic predictive models that are built and updated using generated data, opens one possible path towards limiting the role of operators in data centers. In this paper, we present a data-science study of a public Google dataset collected in a 12K-node cluster with the goal of building and evaluating a predictive model for node failures. We use BigQuery, the big data SQL platform from the Google Cloud suite, to process massive amounts of data and generate a rich feature set characterizing machine state over time. We describe how an ensemble classifier can be built out of many Random Forest classifiers each trained on these features, to predict if machines will fail in a future 24-hour window. Our evaluation reveals that if we limit false positive rates to 5%, we can achieve true positive rates between 27% and 88% with precision varying between 50% and 72%. We discuss the practicality of including our predictive model as the central component of a data-driven autonomic manager and operating it on-line with live data streams (rather than off-line on data logs). All of the scripts used for BigQuery and classification analyses are publicly available from the authors' website.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure

Towards Operator-less Data Centers Through Data-Driven, Predictive, Proactive Autonomics

Continued reliance on human operators for managing data centers is a major impediment for them from ever reaching extreme dimensions. Large computer systems in general, and data centers in particular, will ultimately be managed using predictive computational and executable models obtained through data-science tools, and at that point, the intervention of humans will be limited to setting high-level goals and policies rather than performing low-level operations. Data-driven autonomics, where management and control are based on holistic predictive models that are built and updated using live data, opens one possible path towards limiting the role of operators in data centers. In this paper, we present a data-science study of a public Google dataset collected in a 12K-node cluster with the goal of building and evaluating predictive models for node failures. Our results support the practicality of a data-driven approach by showing the effectiveness of predictive models based on data found in typical data center logs. We use BigQuery, the big data SQL platform from the Google Cloud suite, to process massive amounts of data and generate a rich feature set characterizing node state over time. We describe how an ensemble classifier can be built out of many Random Forest classifiers each trained on these features, to predict if nodes will fail in a future 24-hour window. Our evaluation reveals that if we limit false positive rates to 5%, we can achieve true positive rates between 27% and 88% with precision varying between 50% and 72%.This level of performance allows us to recover large fraction of jobs' executions (by redirecting them to other nodes when a failure of the present node is predicted) that would otherwise have been wasted due to failures. [...

Autonomic Cloud Computing: Open Challenges and Architectural Elements

As Clouds are complex, large-scale, and heterogeneous distributed systems, management of their resources is a challenging task. They need automated and integrated intelligent strategies for provisioning of resources to offer services that are secure, reliable, and cost-efficient. Hence, effective management of services becomes fundamental in software platforms that constitute the fabric of computing Clouds. In this direction, this paper identifies open issues in autonomic resource provisioning and presents innovative management techniques for supporting SaaS applications hosted on Clouds. We present a conceptual architecture and early results evidencing the benefits of autonomic management of Clouds.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, conference keynote pape