The practice of qualitative parameterisation in the development of Bayesian networks

The typical phases of Bayesian network (BN) structured development include specification of purpose and scope, structure development, parameterisation and validation. Structure development is typically focused on qualitative issues and parameterisation quantitative issues, however there are qualitative and quantitative issues that arise in both phases. A common step that occurs after the initial structure has been developed is to perform a rough parameterisation that only captures and illustrates the intended qualitative behaviour of the model. This is done prior to a more rigorous parameterisation, ensuring that the structure is fit for purpose, as well as supporting later development and validation. In our collective experience and in discussions with other modellers, this step is an important part of the development process, but is under-reported in the literature. Since the practice focuses on qualitative issues, despite being quantitative in nature, we call this step qualitative parameterisation and provide an outline of its role in the BN development process.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figures, technical not

Application of Bayesian Network in the EX-Risk-Based Inspection

In the oil and gas industry, many operating expenses assigns to the cost of inspection and maintenance. Therefore, an optimized inspection strategy can reduce the cost of inspection and maintenance when the system's integrity does not change. One of the inspection's main issues is providing the right balance between the benefits of inspection and the inspection cost. It has led to the emerging of a new concept of inspection called risk-based inspection (RBI). This is based on the logical view that most high-risk equipment is concentrated within a small portion of the plant. Therefore, this equipment has priority for inspection, and the extra cost could be decreased with reduced inspection for other equipment with lower risk. Different risk-based inspection approaches have been accepted and developed in the petroleum industry in the past few years. However, there is not any integrated approach for RBI. In this research, to minimize the inspection cost, a new risk-based methodology has been developed by employing the Bayesian Network. Therefore, this study started with the most common risk analysis techniques such as fault tree and event tree and then tried to present a Bayesian network that can deal better with uncertainty. The critical point is that the BN model has met the RBI principle, which required increasing inspection for high-risk equipment to ensure safety level. On the other hand, it makes balance in the cost by reducing the inspection for low-risk equipment

Sociedades fracturadas : la exclusión social en Centroamérica

El presente texto tiene un doble origen. Por un lado, desde hace ya varios años en la Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO), Sede de Costa Rica, se ha venido desarrollando un enfoque sobre las carencias materiales de la población, alternativo al de pobreza. Se ha elaborado una propuesta teórica y metodológica en torno al concepto de exclusión social que se ha aplicado en estudios tanto de alcance regional como nacional. Por otro lado, el Estado de la Región, para su IV Informe, identificó la problemática de la exclusión social como una de las cuestiones centrales a abordar en Centroamérica. En este sentido, ambas instituciones colaboraron para generar documentos a base de estudios tanto de tipo cuantitativo como cualitativo, que han servido de insumos para la elaboración del capítulo 10 de este IV informe

COLLECTIVE ACTION SYSTEMS IN IMMIGRATION AND MULTICULTURALISM POLICY AND PRACTICE: COMPLEXITY AND DYNAMICS OF INTER-ORGANIZATIONAL NETWORKS

Collective action has been explored as an alternative to traditional or single-minded actions in solving complex or ‘wicked’ problems prevalent in contemporary society. Yet, in order to improve its applicability and potential, existing gaps in field research need to be identified and filled. Pointing out the lack of research in complexity and dynamics of collective action systems in every day social policy and practice, this dissertation focuses on uncovering those aspects by asking: How and why did collective action systems emerge in the first place, and continually change over time? What were the roles of public policy in the processes? How could the value of collective action systems be enhanced? To answer these questions, this dissertation investigates collective action systems in immigration and multiculturalism policy and practice of two cities in South Korea, based on a theoretical framework drawn from the ‘institutional analysis and development framework’, theories of structures—complex adaptive systems and social networks, and theory of fields. A set of data was collected by mixed methods, i.e., network coding, semi-structured interviews, and perception surveys, and documentation reviews. Then, descriptive/statistical social network analyses, process tracing, decision analysis, documentary analysis, and descriptive statistics were utilized to explore the emergence and change in local collective action systems in the policy arena from 2002 to 2013. Findings suggest that regardless of inherent contextual differences between the cases, local collective action systems emerged when local participants established a shared definition of local immigrants, and collective goals to serve those local immigrants. However, the immigration and multiculturalism Acts and policies, accompanied with standardized policy implementation procedures, resulted in change in the existing systems in both cities. Despite the frustration due to recent system changes and some contextual roadblocks, local participants still perceived benefits of local collective action systems in the policy arena. Thus, this dissertation suggests policy recommendations that can control the contextual, structural, procedural, and perceptual impediments, and enhance the value of the collective action systems in policy and practice