Economic loss estimation for earthquake hazard in Istanbul

Natural hazards, especially earthquakes, cause disasters when they hit large settlements such as metropolitan areas. After the first shock, the damage is counted by deaths and injuries. In a while, the destroying effects of disaster appear on economic asset of the region. Direct losses including damages in buildings and lifelines can caused non-structural or indirect losses as interruption of business activities and services. Loss estimation techniques have been developed to evaluate losses from earthquakes and other natural hazards. Recently, loss estimation models have improved due to advances in information technology and have been automated using Geographic Information Systems. The aim of this paper is to find out economic effects of probable earthquake in Istanbul. In this study, damage ratios of the most probable and the worst-case earthquake scenarios have been used in order to estimate total damage cost from destruction of houses and interruption of business activities. Despite the loss estimation model does not include monetary losses in lifeline system, centers of administration, emergency services and historical assets, the findings show that future losses, caused by a severe earthquake in Marmara Sea, will exceed the total damage cost of Kocaeli earthquake in 1999.

Earthquake Risk and Earthquake Catastrophe Insurance for the People's Republic of China

The year 2008 witnessed the renewed interests in earthquake risk management and insurance in the People's Republic of China (PRC), after the Wenchuan earthquake hit the country in May. Located along the southeastern edge of the Euro-Asian Plate, the PRC has a relatively high seismicity, which is manifested by the frequent occurrence of large and disastrous earthquakes. Buildings and infrastructure in the earthquake-prone regions of the PRC have relatively low earthquake resistance levels. Hence, disastrous earthquakes result not only in large numbers of injuries and fatalities but also in huge economic losses from property damages. While the PRC began testing earthquake insurance programs in the late 1980s, the overall penetration rate remains very low. The low penetration rate not only creates disruptions for the government after a major earthquake but also, in some cases, delays the reconstruction efforts. Moreover, as a result of the low penetration of earthquake insurance in the PRC, the government serves as the predominant bearer of financial risk from earthquake catastrophes. This paper discusses historical earthquakes and earthquake risk in the PRC and the recent developments of PRC's earthquake risk reduction efforts. The general principles of earthquake programs are explained and the critical issues of formulating earthquake programs in the PRC are discussed, including lessons from earthquake insurance in other countries and other catastrophe insurance in the PRC, data issues, loss risk modeling issues, financial risk modeling issues, legislative issues, and public awareness issues. The paper concludes with several policy directions that the Asian Development Bank can take to help the PRC in its design and implementation of earthquake insurance.earthquake insurance; China; earthquake risk; Wenchuan earthquake; catastrophe insurance

From natural hazard to environmental catastrophe: Past and present

The number of environmental catastrophes is rising, mostly owing to an increase in hydrometeorological hazards. The number of disasters is escalating as the world population grows and people settle in marginal areas. In order to improve preparedness, the geological and archaeological records must be investigated as they hold a wider range of possible events than the much shorter instrumental record. Catastrophes will gain amplitude with rapid onset, long duration, larger affected area, inflexible society and, of cause, convergence of threats. Too often, it seems that today’s societies resist learning from the past and therefore tend to repeat errors. A new field of science is emerging: the science of environmental catastrophes, which requires not only robust chronologies to firmly link cause and effect, but also bridges the crossing between the geosciences and social sciences

Building Disaster Resilience within the Emirati Energy Sector through a Comprehensive Strategic Mitigation Plan

Disasters, both natural and man-made, have been occurring with increasing frequency and effect in recent decades in many countries around the world. Such threats have been shown to result in a loss of life, property and income and all of which have an impact on the country’s socio-economic structure and geo-political positioning. The UAE is steadily adapting its policies and practices to manage any potential disaster, whether natural or man-made. However, evidently the UAE is exposed and vulnerable to tectonic activity from a number of sources and yet there is little in the form of seismic detection, protection, resistance or design for some of the newest and tallest structures in the world. The paper highlights the importance of the strategic mitigation planning for disaster resilience within the Emirati Energy sector. It discusses the issue of disaster globally and then specifically with regards to the UAE, forming a critical analysis on crisis and its management. A broad literature review of the problems readily associated within the discourse is undertaken so that the definition, classification and the application of the disaster and its management cycle are appropriately contextualised in regards to the Emirati problem. The window of opportunity that the UAE has for improvement is emphasised by the findings of this paper

Landslide Risk: Economic Valuation in the North-Eastern Zone of Medellin City

Natural disasters of a geodynamic nature can cause enormous economic and human losses. The economic costs of a landslide disaster include relocation of communities and physical repair of urban infrastructure. However, when performing a quantitative risk analysis, generally, the indirect economic consequences of such an event are not taken into account. A probabilistic approach methodology that considers several scenarios of hazard and vulnerability to measure the magnitude of the landslide and to quantify the economic costs is proposed. With this approach, it is possible to carry out a quantitative evaluation of the risk by landslides, allowing the calculation of the economic losses before a potential disaster in an objective, standardized and reproducible way, taking into account the uncertainty of the building costs in the study zone. The possibility of comparing different scenarios facilitates the urban planning process, the optimization of interventions to reduce risk to acceptable levels and an assessment of economic losses according to the magnitude of the damage. For the development and explanation of the proposed methodology, a simple case study is presented, located in north-eastern zone of the city of Medellín. This area has particular geomorphological characteristics, and it is also characterized by the presence of several buildings in bad structural conditions. The proposed methodology permits to obtain an estimative of the probable economic losses by earthquake-induced landslides, taking into account the uncertainty of the building costs in the study zone. The obtained estimative shows that the structural intervention of the buildings produces a reduction the order of 21 % in the total landslide risk. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd

Urban seismic risk index for Medellín, Colombia, based on probabilistic loss and casualties estimations

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2056-4Medellín is the second largest city of Colombia with more than 2 million inhabitants according to the latest census and with more than 240,000 public and private buildings. It is located on an intermediate seismic hazard area according to the seismic zonation of Colombia although no destructive earthquakes have occurred having as a consequence low seismic risk awareness among its inhabitants. Using the results of a fully probabilistic risk assessment of the city with a building by building resolution level and considering the dynamic soil response, average annual losses by sectors as well as casualties and other direct effects are obtained and aggregated at county level. Using the holistic evaluation module of the multi-hazard risk assessment CAPRA platform, EvHo, a comprehensive assessment that considered the social fragility and lack or resilience at county level is performed making use of a set of indicators with the objective of capturing the aggravating conditions of the initial physical impact. The urban seismic risk index, USRi, is obtained at county level which is useful to communicate risk to decision-makers and stakeholders besides making easy identifying potential zones that can be problematic in terms of several dimensions of the vulnerability. This case study is an example of how a multidisciplinary research on disaster risk reduction helps to show how risk analysis can be of high relevance for decision-making processes in disaster risk management.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Assessment of Seismic Risk in Istanbul

The 1999 earthquakes occurred in Turkey caused destructions in every field and level in nation wide with the high number of deaths and injuries, the remarkable rates of collapsed and heavily damaged buildings and the interruption of business activities in long-term. In the last 5 year-period, various scientific researches focusing on seismic issues have investigated the relationships among seismicity, site conditions and vulnerability. Moreover, with the co-operations of central and local governments, universities and international agencies, many comprehensive projects have been carried out, such as “A Disaster Prevention/Mitigation Basic Plan for Istanbul” by Istanbul Greater Municipality - Japan International Cooperation Agency. Despite 1999 earthquakes had slight effects on Istanbul, the probability of a great earthquake (estimated to occur up to 30 years), has accelerated the attempts on risk evaluation, development of mitigation strategies, readjustment of disaster management system and so on. The primary studies on this field are focused on understanding seismicity and site conditions at large scale so that the earthquake maps produced show risky zones related to geological indicators. Aftermath of many great disasters, it has been observed that land-use decisions, demographic and economic pattern are the key components which increase or decrease the vulnerability level of settlements. In this context, the aim of this paper is to evaluate vulnerability components affecting risk levels and to explore risky zones of Istanbul. In this paper, urban and seismic indicators (i.e. site conditions, demography, land use, economy) have been aggregated and factor analysis has been used in order to reveal principal components of earthquake risk in Istanbul. According to these main factors, using cluster analysis, the critical zones of Istanbul have been indicated on urban pattern.

Natural hazards and disaster management in Pakistan

The present study explains the various concepts used in disaster management. The concepts explained include: Disaster, Hazard, Vulnerability, Capacity, Risk and Disaster Management Cycle. In addition to the terminologies, the study also seeks to explain various types of disasters. It also gives a detail of various disasters occurred in Pakistan as well their management and mitigation strategies. The paper also discusses disaster management policy at national level as well as disaster management and national plans in Pakistan