Spatiotemporal Neurodynamics Underlying Internally and Externally Driven Temporal Prediction: A High Spatial Resolution ERP Study

Temporal prediction (TP) is a flexible and dynamic cognitive ability. Depending on the internal or external nature of information exploited to generate TP, distinct cognitive and brain mechanisms are engaged with the same final goal of reducing uncertainty about the future. In this study, we investigated the specific brain mechanisms involved in internally and externally driven TP. To this end, we employed an experimental paradigm purposely designed to elicit and compare externally and internally driven TP and a combined approach based on the application of a distributed source reconstruction modeling on a high spatial resolution electrophysiological data array. Specific spatiotemporal ERP signatures were identified, with significant modulation of contingent negative variation and frontal late sustained positivity in external and internal TP contexts, respectively. These different electrophysiological patterns were supported by the engagement of distinct neural networks, including a left sensorimotor and a prefrontal circuit for externally and internally driven TP, respectively

Value and prediction error in medial frontal cortex: integrating the single-unit and systems levels of analysis

The role of the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) in cognition has been extensively investigated with several techniques, including single-unit recordings in rodents and monkeys and EEG and fMRI in humans. This has generated a rich set of data and points of view. Important theoretical functions proposed for ACC are value estimation, error detection, error-likelihood estimation, conflict monitoring, and estimation of reward volatility. A unified view is lacking at this time, however. Here we propose that online value estimation could be the key function underlying these diverse data. This is instantiated in the reward value and prediction model (RVPM). The model contains units coding for the value of cues (stimuli or actions) and units coding for the differences between such values and the actual reward (prediction errors). We exposed the model to typical experimental paradigms from single-unit, EEG, and fMRI research to compare its overall behavior with the data from these studies. The model reproduced the ACC behavior of previous single-unit, EEG, and fMRI studies on reward processing, error processing, conflict monitoring, error-likelihood estimation, and volatility estimation, unifying the interpretations of the role performed by the ACC in some aspects of cognition

Optimal Aging and Death: Understanding the Preston Curve

The present study examines whether the Preston curve reflects a causal impact of income on longevity or, for example, factors correlated with both income and life expectancy. In order to understand the Preston curve better, we develop a model of optimal intertemporal consumption in which the representative consumer is subject to physiological aging. In modeling aging we draw on recent research in the fields of biology and medicine. The speed of the aging process, and thus the time of death, are endogenously determined by optimal health investments. We calibrate the model to US data and proceed to show that the model accounts for nearly 80% of the cross-country differences in life expectancy that the Preston curve captures.aging; longevity; health investments; savings; Preston curve

Modeling age-related differences in immediate memory using SIMPLE

In the SIMPLE model (Scale Invariant Memory and Perceptual Learning), performance on memory tasks is determined by the locations of items in multidimensional space, and better performance is associated with having fewer close neighbors. Unlike most previous simulations with SIMPLE, the ones reported here used measured, rather than assumed, dimensional values. The data to be modeled come from an experiment in which younger and older adults recalled lists of acoustically confusable and nonconfusable items. A multidimensional scaling solution based on the memory confusions was obtained. SIMPLE accounted for the overall difference in performance both between the two age groups and, within each age group, the overall difference between acoustically confusable and nonconfusable items in terms of the MDS coordinates. Moreover, the model accounted for the serial position functions and error gradients. Finally, the generality of the model’s account was examined by fitting data from an already published study. The data and the modeling support the hypothesis that older adults’ memory may be worse, in part, because of altered representations due to age-related auditory perceptual deficits

Working memory revived in older adults by synchronizing rhythmic brain circuits

Published in final edited form as: Nat Neurosci. 2019 May ; 22(5): 820–827. doi:10.1038/s41593-019-0371-x.Understanding normal brain aging and developing methods to maintain or improve cognition in older adults are major goals of fundamental and translational neuroscience. Here we show a core feature of cognitive decline—working-memory deficits—emerges from disconnected local and long-range circuits instantiated by theta–gamma phase–amplitude coupling in temporal cortex and theta phase synchronization across frontotemporal cortex. We developed a noninvasive stimulation procedure for modulating long-range theta interactions in adults aged 60–76 years. After 25 min of stimulation, frequency-tuned to individual brain network dynamics, we observed a preferential increase in neural synchronization patterns and the return of sender–receiver relationships of information flow within and between frontotemporal regions. The end result was rapid improvement in working-memory performance that outlasted a 50 min post-stimulation period. The results provide insight into the physiological foundations of age-related cognitive impairment and contribute to groundwork for future non-pharmacological interventions targeting aspects of cognitive decline.Accepted manuscrip

"The Saving Rate in Japan: Why It Has Fallen and Why It Will Remain Low"

During the 1990s, Japan began experiencing demographic changes that are larger and more rapid than in other OECD countries. These demographic changes will become even more pronounced in future years. We are interested in understanding the role of lower fertility rates and aging for the evolution of Japan's saving rate. We use a computable general equilibrium model to analyze the response of the national saving rate to changes in demographics and total factor productivity. In our model aging accounts for 2 to 3 percentage points of the 9 percent decline in the Japanese national saving rate between 1990 and 2000 and persistently depresses Japan's national saving rate in future years.

The saving rate in Japan: Why it has fallen and why it will remain low

During the 1990s, Japan began experiencing demographic changes that are larger and more rapid than in other OECD countries. These demographic changes will become even more pronounced in future years. We are interested in understanding the role of lower fertility rates and aging for the evolution of Japan?s saving rate. We use a computable general equilibrium model to analyze the response of the national saving rate to changes in demographics and total factor productivity. In our model aging accounts for 2 to 3 percentage points.

Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:

We present a quantitative analysis of the effects of population aging and pension reform on international capital markets. First, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within each country. Second, this process may be amplified when a pension reform shifts old-age provision towards more pre-funding. Third, while the patterns of population aging are similar in most countries, timing and initial conditions differ substantially. Hence, to the extent that capital is internationally mobile, population aging will induce capital flows between countries. All three effects influence the rate of return to capital and interact with the demand for capital in production and with labor supply. In order to quantify these effects, we develop a computational general equilibrium model. We feed this multi-country overlapping generations model with detailed long-term demographic projections for seven world regions. Our simulations indicate that capital flows from fast-aging regions to the rest of the world will initially be substantial but that trends are reversed when households decumulate savings. We also conclude that closed-economy models of pension reform miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility.25 August, 2004

Modeling the Interdependences between Voltage Fluctuation and BTI Aging

With technology scaling, the susceptibility of circuits to different reliability degradations is steadily increasing. Aging in transistors due to bias temperature instability (BTI) and voltage fluctuation in the power delivery network of circuits due to IR-drops are the most prominent. In this paper, we are reporting for the first time that there are interdependences between voltage fluctuation and BTI aging that are nonnegligible. Modeling and investigating the joint impact of voltage fluctuation and BTI aging on the delay of circuits, while remaining compatible with the existing standard design flow, is indispensable in order to answer the vital question, “what is an efficient (i.e., small, yet sufficient) timing guardband to sustain the reliability of circuit for the projected lifetime?” This is, concisely, the key goal of this paper. Achieving that would not be possible without employing a physics-based BTI model that precisely describes the underlying generation and recovery mechanisms of defects under arbitrary stress waveforms. For this purpose, our model is validated against varied semiconductor measurements covering a wide range of voltage, temperature, frequency, and duty cycle conditions. To bring reliability awareness to existing EDA tool flows, we create standard cell libraries that contain the delay information of cells under the joint impact of aging and IR-drop. Our libraries can be directly deployed within the standard design flow because they are compatible with existing commercial tools (e.g., Synopsys and Cadence). Hence, designers can leverage the mature algorithms of these tools to accurately estimate the required timing guardbands for any circuit despite its complexity. Our investigation demonstrates that considering aging and IR-drop effects independently, as done in the state of the art, leads to employing insufficient and thus unreliable guardbands because of the nonnegligible (on average 15% and up to 25%) underestimations. Importantly, considering interdependences between aging and IR-drop does not only allow correct guardband estimations, but it also results in employing more efficient guardbands

Flexible operation and maintenance optimization of aging cyber-physical energy systems by deep reinforcement learning

Cyber-Physical Energy Systems (CPESs) integrate cyber and hardware components to ensure a reliable and safe physical power production and supply. Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) add uncertainty to energy demand that can be dealt with flexible operation (e.g., load-following) of CPES; at the same time, scenarios that could result in severe consequences due to both component stochastic failures and aging of the cyber system of CPES (commonly overlooked) must be accounted for Operation & Maintenance (O&M) planning. In this paper, we make use of Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to search for the optimal O&M strategy that, not only considers the actual system hardware components health conditions and their Remaining Useful Life (RUL), but also the possible accident scenarios caused by the failures and the aging of the hardware and the cyber components, respectively. The novelty of the work lies in embedding the cyber aging model into the CPES model of production planning and failure process; this model is used to help the RL agent, trained with Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Imitation Learning (IL), finding the proper rejuvenation timing for the cyber system accounting for the uncertainty of the cyber system aging process. An application is provided, with regards to the Advanced Lead-cooled Fast Reactor European Demonstrator (ALFRED)