Landslide susceptibility modeling based on GIS and novel bagging-based Kernel logistic regression

Landslides cause a considerable amount of damage around the world every year. Landslide susceptibility assessments are useful for the mitigation of the associated potential risks to local economic development, land use planning, and decision makers. The main aim of this study was to present a novel hybrid approach of bagging (B)-based kernel logistic regression (KLR), named the BKLR model, for spatial prediction of landslides in the Shangnan County, China. We first selected 15 conditioning factors for landslide susceptibility modeling. Then, the prediction capability of all conditioning factors was evaluated using the least square support vector machine method. Model validation and comparison were performed based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and several statistical-based indexes, including positive predictive rate, negative predictive rate, sensitivity, specificity, kappa index, and root mean square error. Results indicated that the BKLR ensemble model outperformed and outclassed the KLR and the benchmark support vector machine model. Our findings overall confirmed that a combination of the meta model with a decision tree classifier based on a functional algorithm can decrease the overfitting and variance problems of data, which could enhance the prediction power of the landslide model. The resultant susceptibility maps could be useful for hazard mitigation in the study area and other similar landslide-prone areas

Optimizing an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for Spatial Prediction of Landslide Susceptibility Using Four State-of-the-art Metaheuristic Techniques.

Four state-of-the-art metaheuristic algorithms including the genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), differential evolutionary (DE), and ant colony optimization (ACO) are applied to an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility in Qazvin Province (Iran). To this end, the landslide inventory map, composed of 199 identified landslides, is divided into training and testing landslides with a 70:30 ratio. To create the spatial database, thirteen landslide conditioning factors are considered within the geographic information system (GIS). Notably, the spatial interaction between the landslides and mentioned conditioning factors is analyzed by means of frequency ratio (FR) theory. After the optimization process, it was shown that the DE-based model reaches the best response more quickly than other ensembles. The landslide susceptibility maps were developed, and the accuracy of the models was evaluated by a ranking system, based on the calculated area under the receiving operating characteristic curve (AUROC), mean absolute error, and mean square error (MSE) accuracy indices. According to the results, the GA-ANFIS with a total ranking score (TRS) = 24 presented the most accurate prediction, followed by PSO-ANFIS (TRS = 17), DE-ANFIS (TRS = 13), and ACO-ANFIS (TRS = 6). Due to the excellent results of this research, the developed landslide susceptibility maps can be applied for future planning and decision making of the related area

Evaluation of recent advanced soft computing techniques for gully erosion susceptibility mapping: A comparative study

© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Gully erosion is a problem; therefore, it must be predicted using highly accurate predictive models to avoid losses caused by gully development and to guarantee sustainable development. This research investigates the predictive performance of seven multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM), statistical, and machine learning (ML)-based models and their ensembles for gully erosion susceptibility mapping (GESM). A case study of the Dasjard River watershed, Iran uses a database of 306 gully head cuts and 15 conditioning factors. The database was divided 70:30 to train and verify the models. Their performance was assessed with the area under prediction rate curve (AUPRC), the area under success rate curve (AUSRC), accuracy, and kappa. Results show that slope is key to gully formation. The maximum entropy (ME) ML model has the best performance (AUSRC = 0.947, AUPRC = 0.948, accuracy = 0.849 and kappa = 0.699). The second best is the random forest (RF) model (AUSRC = 0.965, AUPRC = 0.932, accuracy = 0.812 and kappa = 0.624). By contrast, the TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) model was the least effective (AUSRC = 0.871, AUPRC = 0.867, accuracy = 0.758 and kappa = 0.516). RF increased the performance of statistical index (SI) and frequency ratio (FR) statistical models. Furthermore, the combination of a generalized linear model (GLM), and functional data analysis (FDA) improved their performances. The results demonstrate that a combination of geographic information systems (GIS) with remote sensing (RS)-based ML models can successfully map gully erosion susceptibility, particularly in low-income and developing regions. This method can aid the analyses and decisions of natural resources managers and local planners to reduce damages by focusing attention and resources on areas prone to the worst and most damaging gully erosion

Assessment of landslide susceptibility using statistical- and artificial intelligence-based FR-RF integrated model and multiresolution DEMs

© 2019 by the authors. Landslide is one of the most important geomorphological hazards that cause significant ecological and economic losses and results in billions of dollars in financial losses and thousands of casualties per year. The occurrence of landslide in northern Iran (Alborz Mountain Belt) is often due to the geological and climatic conditions and tectonic and human activities. To reduce or control the damage caused by landslides, landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) and landslide risk assessment are necessary. In this study, the efficiency and integration of frequency ratio (FR) and random forest (RF) in statistical- and artificial intelligence-based models and different digital elevation models (DEMs) with various spatial resolutions were assessed in the field of LSM. The experiment was performed in Sangtarashan watershed, Mazandran Province, Iran. The study area, which extends to 1072.28 km2, is severely affected by landslides, which cause severe economic and ecological losses. An inventory of 129 landslides that occurred in the study area was prepared using various resources, such as historical landslide records, the interpretation of aerial photos and Google Earth images, and extensive field surveys. The inventory was split into training and test sets, which include 70 and 30% of the landslide locations, respectively. Subsequently, 15 topographic, hydrologic, geologic, and environmental landslide conditioning factors were selected as predictor variables of landslide occurrence on the basis of literature review, field works and multicollinearity analysis. Phased array type L-band synthetic aperture radar (PALSAR), ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer), and SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) DEMs were used to extract topographic and hydrologic attributes. The RF model showed that land use/land cover (16.95), normalised difference vegetation index (16.44), distance to road (15.32) and elevation (13.6) were the most important controlling variables. Assessment of model performance by calculating the area under the receiving operating characteristic curve parameter showed that FR-RF integrated model (0.917) achieved higher predictive accuracy than the individual FR (0.865) and RF (0.840) models. Comparison of PALSAR, ASTER, and SRTM DEMs with 12.5, 30 and 90 m spatial resolution, respectively, with the FR-RF integrated model showed that the prediction accuracy of FR-RF-PALSAR (0.917) was higher than FR-RF-ASTER (0.865) and FR-RF-SRTM (0.863). The results of this study could be used by local planners and decision makers for planning development projects and landslide hazard mitigation measures

Landslide Identification and Zonation Using the Index of Entropy Technique at Ossey Watershed Area in Bhutan

The landslide is one of the natural disasters which claim human lives and incur huge economic losses, especially in the mountainous area. The main aim of this study is to develop different zones of landslide-prone area using the index of entropy (IOE) at the Ossey watershed area in Bhutan. During the landslide inventory, 164 landslides were identified of which 115 locations were used for the training dataset while the remaining 49 locations were used for the validation dataset. A total of ten causal factors were used for this study including elevation, slope, aspect, slope curvature, stream power index, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), distance from the road, distance from the river, lithology, and rainfall. The IOE was used to obtain the relationship between the landslide events and the causal factors. The most influential causal factors were NDVI, slope, and rainfall with the weightage of 0.377, 0.347, and 0.175 respectively as per the IOE. The final landslide susceptibility map was classified into five classes using the geometrical interval classification. The validation was done using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the kappa index. The area under the curve (AUC) for the success rate and prediction rate was 0.7821 and 0.8377, respectively. The kappa index using the training dataset and validation dataset were 0.4111 and 0.4898, respectively. The final landslide susceptibility map is accurate enough for the future references by the decision-makers and the engineers

Landslide detection using multi-scale image segmentation and different machine learning models in the higher Himalayas

Landslides represent a severe hazard in many areas of the world. Accurate landslide maps are needed to document the occurrence and extent of landslides and to investigate their distribution, types, and the pattern of slope failures. Landslide maps are also crucial for determining landslide susceptibility and risk. Satellite data have been widely used for such investigations—next to data from airborne or unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-borne campaigns and Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). We have developed a methodology that incorporates object-based image analysis (OBIA) with three machine learning (ML) methods, namely, the multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP-NN) and random forest (RF), for landslide detection. We identified the optimal scale parameters (SP) and used them for multi-scale segmentation and further analysis. We evaluated the resulting objects using the object pureness index (OPI), object matching index (OMI), and object fitness index (OFI) measures. We then applied two different methods to optimize the landslide detection task: (a) an ensemble method of stacking that combines the different ML methods for improving the performance, and (b) Dempster–Shafer theory (DST), to combine the multi-scale segmentation and classification results. Through the combination of three ML methods and the multi-scale approach, the framework enhanced landslide detection when it was tested for detecting earthquake-triggered landslides in Rasuwa district, Nepal. PlanetScope optical satellite images and a DEM were used, along with the derived landslide conditioning factors. Different accuracy assessment measures were used to compare the results against a field-based landslide inventory. All ML methods yielded the highest overall accuracies ranging from 83.3% to 87.2% when using objects with the optimal SP compared to other SPs. However, applying DST to combine the multi-scale results of each ML method significantly increased the overall accuracies to almost 90%. Overall, the integration of OBIA with ML methods resulted in appropriate landslide detections, but using the optimal SP and ML method is crucial for success

Automated Landslide-Risk Prediction Using Web GIS and Machine Learning Models

Spatial susceptible landslide prediction is the one of the most challenging research areas which essentially concerns the safety of inhabitants. The novel geographic information web (GIW) application is proposed for dynamically predicting landslide risk in Chiang Rai, Thailand. The automated GIW system is coordinated between machine learning technologies, web technologies, and application programming interfaces (APIs). The new bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) algorithm is presented to forecast landslides. The proposed algorithm consists of 3 major steps, the first of which is the construction of a landslide dataset by using Quantum GIS (QGIS). The second step is to generate the landslide-risk model based on machine learning approaches. Finally, the automated landslide-risk visualization illustrates the likelihood of landslide via Google Maps on the website. Four static factors are considered for landslide-risk prediction, namely, land cover, soil properties, elevation and slope, and a single dynamic factor i.e., precipitation. Data are collected to construct a geospatial landslide database which comprises three historical landslide locations—Phu Chifa at Thoeng District, Ban Pha Duea at Mae Salong Nai, and Mai Salong Nok in Mae Fa Luang District, Chiang Rai, Thailand. Data collection is achieved using QGIS software to interpolate contour, elevation, slope degree and land cover from the Google satellite images, aerial and site survey photographs while the physiographic and rock type are on-site surveyed by experts. The state-of-the-art machine learning models have been trained i.e., linear regression (LR), artificial neural network (ANN), LSTM, and Bi-LSTM. Ablation studies have been conducted to determine the optimal parameters setting for each model. An enhancement method based on two-stage classifications has been presented to improve the landslide prediction of LSTM and Bi-LSTM models. The landslide-risk prediction performances of these models are subsequently evaluated using real-time dataset and it is shown that Bi-LSTM with Random Forest (Bi-LSTM-RF) yields the best prediction performance. Bi-LSTM-RF model has improved the landslide-risk predicting performance over LR, ANNs, LSTM, and Bi-LSTM in terms of the area under the receiver characteristic operator (AUC) scores by 0.42, 0.27, 0.46, and 0.47, respectively. Finally, an automated web GIS has been developed and it consists of software components including the trained models, rainfall API, Google API, and geodatabase. All components have been interfaced together via JavaScript and Node.js tool

Method for landslides detection with semi-automatic procedures: The case in the zone center-east of Cauca department, Colombia

Landslides are a common natural hazard that causes human casualties, but also infrastructure damage and land-use degradation. Therefore, a quantitative assessment of their presence is required by means of detecting and recognizing the potentially unstable areas. This research aims to develop a method supported on semiautomatic methods to detect potential mass movements at a regional scale. Five techniques were studied: Morphometry, SAR interferometry (InSAR), Persistent Scatterer InSAR (PS-InSAR), SAR polarimetry (PolSAR) and NDVI composites of Landsat 5, Landsat 7, and Landsat 8. The case study was chosen within the mid-eastern area of the Cauca state, which is characterised by its mountainous terrain and the presence of slope instabilities, officially registered in the CGS-SIMMA landslide inventory. This inventory revealed that the type `slide' occurred with 77.4% from the entire registries, `fall' with 16.5%, followed by `creeps' with 3%, flows with 2.6%, and `lateral spread' with 0.43%. As a result, we obtained the morphometric variables: slope, CONVI, TWI, landform, which were highly associated with landslides. The effect of a DEM in the processing flow of the InSAR method was similar for the InSAR coherence variable using the DEMs ASTER, PALSAR RTC, Topo-map, and SRTM. Then, a multiInSAR analysis gave displacement velocities in the LOS direction between -10 and 10 mm/year. With the dual-PolSAR analysis (Sentinel-1), VH and VV C-band polarised radar energy emitted median values of backscatters, for landslides, about of -14.5 dB for VH polarisation and -8.5 dB for VV polarisation. Also, L-band fully polarimetric NASA-UAVSAR data allowed to nd the mechanism of dispersion of CGS landslide inventory: 39% for surface scattering, 46.4% for volume dispersion, and 14.6% for double-bounce scattering. The optical remote sensing provided NDVI composites derived from Landsat series between 2012 and 2016, showing that NDVI values between 0.40 and 0.70 had a high correlation to landslides. In summary, we found the highest categories related to landslides by Weight of Evidence method (WofE) for each spaceborne technique applied. Finally, these results were merged to generate the landslide detection model by using the supervised machine learning method of Random Forest. By taking training and test samples, the precision of the detection model was of about 70% for the rotational and translational types.Los deslizamientos son una amenaza natural que causa pérdidas humanas, daños a la infraestructura y degradación del suelo. Una evaluación cuantitativa de su presencia se requiere mediante la detección y el reconocimiento de potenciales áreas inestables. Esta investigación tuvo como alcance desarrollar un método soportado en métodos semi-automáticos para detectar potenciales movimientos en masa a escala regional. Cinco técnicas fueron estudiadas: Morfometría, Interferometría radar, Interferometría con Persistent Scatterers, Polarimetría radar y composiciones del NDVI con los satélites Landsat 5, Landsat 7 y Landsat 8. El caso de estudio se seleccionó dentro de la región intermedia al este del departamento del Cauca, la cual se caracteriza por terreno montañoso y la presencia de inestabilidades de la pendiente oficialmente registrados en el servicio SIMMA del Servicio Geológico Colombiano. Este inventario reveló que el tipo de movimiento deslizamiento ocurrió con una frecuencia relativa de 77.4%, caidos con el 16.5% de los casos y reptaciones con 3%, flujos con 2.6% y propagación lateral con 0.43%. Como resultado, se obtuvo las variables morfométricas: pendiente, convergencia, índice topográfico de humedad y forma del terreno altamente asociados con los deslizamientos. El efecto de un DEM en el procesamiento del método InSAR fue similar para la variable coherencia usando los DEMs: ASTER, PAlSAR RTC, Topo-map y SRTM. Un análisis Multi-InSAR estimó velocidades de desplazamiento en dirección de vista del radar entre -10 y 10 mm/año. El análisis de polarimetría dual del Sentinel-1 arrojó valores de retrodispersión promedio de -14.5 dB en la banda VH y -8.5dB en la banda VV. Las cuatro polarimetrías del sensor aéreo UAVSAR permitió caracterizar el mecanismo de dispersión del Inventario de Deslizamiento así: 39% en el mecanismo de superficie, 46.4% en el mecanismo de volumen y 14.6% en el mecanismo de doble rebote. La información generada en el rango óptico permitió obtener composiciones de NDVI derivados de la plataforma Landsat entre los años 2012 y 2016, mostrando que el rango entre 0.4 y 0.7 tuvieron una alta asociación con los deslizamientos. En esta investigación se determinaron las categorías de las variables de Teledetección más altamente relacionadas con los movimientos en masa mediante el método de Pesos de Evidencias (WofE). Finalmente, estos resultados se fusionaron para generar el modelo de detección de deslizamientos usando el método supervisado de aprendizaje de máquina Random Forest. Tomando muestras aleatorias para entrenar y validar el modelo en una proporción 70:30, el modelo de detección, especialmente los movimientos de tipo rotacional y traslacional fueron clasificados con una tasa general de éxito del 70%.Ministerio de CienciasConvocatoria 647 de 2014Research line: Geotechnics and Geoenvironmental HazardDoctorad

Identifying source of dust aerosol using a new framework based on remote sensing and modelling

Dust particles are transported globally. Dust storms can adversely impact both human health and the environment, but they also impact transportation infrastructure, agriculture, and industry, occasionally severely. The identification of the locations that are the primary sources of dust, especially in arid and semi-arid environments, remains a challenge as these sites are often in remote or data-scarce regions. In this study, a new method using state-of-the-art machine-learning algorithms – random forest (RF), support vector machines (SVM), and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) – was evaluated for its ability to spatially model the distribution of dust-source potential in eastern Iran. To accomplish this, empirically identified dust-source locations were determined with the ozone monitoring instrument aerosol index and the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep Blue aerosol optical thickness methods. The identified areas were divided into training (70%) and validation (30%) sets. Measurements of the conditioning factors (lithology, wind speed, maximum air temperature, land use, slope angle, soil, rainfall, and land cover) were compiled for the study area and predictive models were developed. The area-under-the-receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) and true-skill statistics (TSS) were used to validate the maps of the models' predictions. The results show that the RF algorithm performed best (AUC = 89.4% and TSS = 0.751), followed by the SVM (AUC = 87.5%, TSS = 0.73) and the MARS algorithm (AUC = 81%, TSS = 0.69). The results of the RF indicated that wind speed and land cover are the most important factors affecting dust generation. The region of highest dust-source potential that was identified by the RF is in the eastern parts of the study region. This model can be applied to other arid and semi-arid environments that experience dust storms to promote management that prevents desertification and reduces dust production

Investigation of rockfall and slope instability with advanced geotechnical methods and ASTER images

The objective of this thesis was to identify the mechanisms associated with the recurrence of rock-slope instability along the R518 and R523 roads in Limpopo. Advanced geotechnical methods and ASTER imagery were used for the purpose while a predictive rockfall hazard rating matrix chart and rock slope stability charts for unsaturated sensitive clay soil and rock slopes were to be developed. The influence of extreme rainfall on the slope stability of the sensitive clay soil was also evaluated. To achieve the above, field observations, geological mapping, kinematic analysis, and limit equilibrium were performed. The latter involved toppling, transitional and rotational analyses. Numerical simulation was finally resorted to. The following software packages were employed: SWEDGE, SLIDE, RocData, RocFall, DIPS, RocPlane, and Phase 2. The simulation outputs were analyzed in conjunction with ASTER images. The advanced remote sensing data paved the way for landslide susceptibility analysis. From all the above, rockfall hazard prediction charts and slope stability prediction charts were developed. Several factors were also shown by numerical simulation to influence slope instability in the area of study, i.e. sites along the R518 and R523 roads in the Thulamela Municipality. The most important factors are extreme rainfall, steep slopes, geological features and water streams in the region, and improper road construction. Owing to the complexity of the failure mechanisms in the study area, it was concluded that both slope stability prediction charts and rock hazard matrix charts are very useful. They indeed enable one to characterize slope instability in sensitive clay soils as well as rockfall hazards in the study area. It is however recommended that future work is undertaken to explore the use of sophisticated and scientific methods. This is instrumental in the development of predictive tools for rock deformation and displacement in landslide events.Electrical and Mining EngineeringD. Phil. (Mining Engineering