Global disease monitoring and forecasting with Wikipedia

Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease. Traditional, biologically-focused monitoring techniques are accurate but costly and slow; in response, new techniques based on social internet data such as social media and search queries are emerging. These efforts are promising, but important challenges in the areas of scientific peer review, breadth of diseases and countries, and forecasting hamper their operational usefulness. We examine a freely available, open data source for this use: access logs from the online encyclopedia Wikipedia. Using linear models, language as a proxy for location, and a systematic yet simple article selection procedure, we tested 14 location-disease combinations and demonstrate that these data feasibly support an approach that overcomes these challenges. Specifically, our proof-of-concept yields models with $r^2$ up to 0.92, forecasting value up to the 28 days tested, and several pairs of models similar enough to suggest that transferring models from one location to another without re-training is feasible. Based on these preliminary results, we close with a research agenda designed to overcome these challenges and produce a disease monitoring and forecasting system that is significantly more effective, robust, and globally comprehensive than the current state of the art.Comment: 27 pages; 4 figures; 4 tables. Version 2: Cite McIver & Brownstein and adjust novelty claims accordingly; revise title; various revisions for clarit

Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy

This essay, written by a statistician and a climate scientist, describes our view of the gap that exists between current practice in mainstream climate science, and the practical needs of policymakers charged with exploring possible interventions in the context of climate change. By `mainstream' we mean the type of climate science that dominates in universities and research centres, which we will term `academic' climate science, in contrast to `policy' climate science; aspects of this distinction will become clearer in what follows. In a nutshell, we do not think that academic climate science equips climate scientists to be as helpful as they might be, when involved in climate policy assessment. Partly, we attribute this to an over-investment in high resolution climate simulators, and partly to a culture that is uncomfortable with the inherently subjective nature of climate uncertainty.Comment: submitted as contribution to Conceptual Foundations of ClimateModeling, Winsberg, E. and Lloyd, E., eds., The University of Chicago Pres

Explanation and Elaboration Document for the STROBE-Vet Statement: Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology—Veterinary Extension

The STROBE (Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) statement was first published in 2007 and again in 2014. The purpose of the original STROBE was to provide guidance for authors, reviewers and editors to improve the comprehensiveness of reporting; however, STROBE has a unique focus on observational studies. Although much of the guidance provided by the original STROBE document is directly applicable, it was deemed useful to map those statements to veterinary concepts, provide veterinary examples and highlight unique aspects of reporting in veterinary observational studies. Here, we present the examples and explanations for the checklist items included in the STROBE-Vet Statement. Thus, this is a companion document to the STROBE-Vet Statement Methods and process document, which describes the checklist and how it was developed

Interaction between HIV Awareness, Knowledge, Safe Sex Practice and HIV Incidence: Evidence from Botswana

This paper makes methodological and empirical contributions to the study of HIV awareness, knowledge, incidence and safe sex practice in the context of Botswana, one of the most HIV prone countries in the world. While the focus is on Botswana, the paper presents comparable evidence from India to put the Botswana results in perspective. The results point to the strong role played by affluence and education in increasing HIV knowledge, promoting safe sex and reducing HIV incidence. The study presents African evidence on the role played by the empowerment of women in promoting safe sex practices such as condom use. The Botswana results show however that simply increasing HIV knowledge may not be effective in lowering HIV incidence unless people are also made fully aware of the lethal nature of the disease. The lack of significant association between HIV incidence and safe sex practice points to the danger of HIV infected individuals spreading the disease through multiple sex partners and unprotected sex. This danger is underlined by the result that females with multiple sex partners are at higher risk of being infected with HIV.HIV incidence, Female Empowerment, Safe Sex Methods, Finite Mixture Models, Principal Components Analysis.