Are PPP tests erratically behaved? Some panel evidence

This paper examines whether, in addition to standard unit root and cointegration tests, panel approaches also produce test statistics behaving erratically when applied to PPP. We show that if appropriate tests (which are robust to cross-sectional dependence and more powerful) are used, any evidence of erratic behaviour disappears, and strong empirical support is found for PPP. It appears therefore that recent advances in panel data econometrics might enable us to settle the PPP debate

Panel Data Tests Of PPP: A Critical Overview

This paper reviews recent developments in the analysis of non-stationary panels, focusing on empirical applications of panel unit root and cointegration tests in the context of PPP. It highlights various drawbacks of existing methods. First, unit root tests suffer from severe size distortions in the presence of negative moving average errors. Second, the common demeaning procedure to correct for the bias resulting from homogeneous cross-sectional dependence is not effective; more worryingly, it introduces cross-correlation when it is not already present. Third, standard corrections for the case of heterogeneous cross-sectional dependence do not generally produce consistent estimators. Fourth, if there is between-group correlation in the innovations, the SURE estimator is affected by similar problems to FGLS methods, and does not necessarily outperform OLS. Finally, cointegration between different groups in the panel could also be a source of size distortions. We offer some empirical guidelines to deal with these problems, but conclude that panel methods are unlikely to solve the PPP puzzl

Is the real exchange rate stationary? - a similar sized test approach for the univariate panel cases

In this article we show that mean-adjusting Panel and Time Series unit root tests yields similar size when there is no drift. The conclusion of the empirics for Purchasing Power Parity is that it holds on average

The Quest for Purchasing Power Parity with a Series-specific Unit Root Test Using Panel Data

A unit root testing procedure is presented that exploits the well-established power advantages of panel estimation while rectifying a deficiency in other panel unit root tests. This procedure, which takes into account contemporaneous cross-correlation and heterogeneous serial correlation of the regression residuals, allows determination of which members of the panel reject the null hypothesis of a unit root and which do not. Applying the procedure to real exchange rates yields results that are in broad agreement with those obtained from single-equation unit root tests. There is little evidence that a unit root can be rejected in dollar-based real exchange rates for the floating rate period.Marketing,

Real exchange rates in latin america: The ppp hypothesis and fractional integration

This paper tests for PPP in a group of seventeen Latin American (LA) countries by applying fractional integration techniques to real exchange rate series. Compared to earlier studies on these economies, this approach has the advantage of allowing for non-integer values for the degree of integration, and thus for the possibility of PPP not holding continuously but as a long-run equilibrium condition. Further, breaks in the series are endogenously determined using a procedure based on the least-squares principle. This is particularly crucial in the Latin American countries, which have been affected by several exchange rate crises and policy regime changes. The results, based on different assumptions about the underlying disturbances, are in the majority of cases inconsistent with PPP, even more so when breaks are incorporated: Argentina is the only country for which clear evidence of mean reversion is found in the model including a break, albeit only in the second subsample

China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan: A Quantitative Assessment of Real and Financial Integration

The status of real and financial integration of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan is investigated using monthly data on one-month interbank rates, exchange rates, and prices. Specifically, the degree of integration is assessed based on the empirical validity of real interest parity, uncovered interest parity, and relative purchasing power parity. There is evidence these parity conditions tend to hold over longer periods, although they do not hold instantaneously. Overall, the magnitude of deviations from the parity conditions is shrinking over time. In particular, China and Hong Kong appear to have experienced significant increases in integration during the sample period. It is also found that exchange rate variability plays a major role in determining the variability of deviations from these parity conditions.uncovered interest parity, real interest parity, purchasing power parity, exchange rates, capital mobility, market integration

A Panel Test of Purchasing Power Parity Under the Null of Stationarity

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is tested using a sample of real exchange rate data for twelve European countries. Acknowledging that Augmented Dickey Fuller tests have low power, we apply a Panel test that considers the null of stationarity and corrects for serial dependence using a non-parametric kernel based method

Exchange Rate Pegging: Credibility and Fundamentals. Evidence from Greece

The paper examines the predictability of a currency-peg collapse on the basis of the movements of underlying fundamentals and the observed behaviour of currency markets. Our findings suggest that the ultimate collapse of a peg is predictable if the peg is inconsistent with valid long-run macroeconomic relationships. A strong currency policy is confirmed to be helpful in terms of reducing inflation but its prolonged implementation reduces the peg’s credibility. In the case-study examined, markets appear to have anticipated the peg’s collapse almost a year before it occurred. However, the results show that the exact timing of the devaluation took markets by surprise. Even under conditions of devaluation expectations, central banks have the capacity to surprise the markets

Are real exchange rates mean reverting? Evidence from a panel of OECD countries

In our article we employ some contemporaneous panel unit root tests (Maddala and Wu, 1999; Im et al., 2003) to examine whether the real exchange rates are mean reverting. Considering a panel of 26 OECD countries from 1987 to 2006 both using monthly and quarterly observations, we find that assuming a panel framework significantly increases the power of unit root tests. As a result, we find that the nonstationarity of the real exchange rate has strongly been rejected in favour of giving support to the purchasing power parity.Real Exchange Rates ; Panel Unit Root Tests ; OECD Economies ;