Conceptual graph-based knowledge representation for supporting reasoning in African traditional medicine

Although African patients use both conventional or modern and traditional healthcare simultaneously, it has been proven that 80% of people rely on African traditional medicine (ATM). ATM includes medical activities stemming from practices, customs and traditions which were integral to the distinctive African cultures. It is based mainly on the oral transfer of knowledge, with the risk of losing critical knowledge. Moreover, practices differ according to the regions and the availability of medicinal plants. Therefore, it is necessary to compile tacit, disseminated and complex knowledge from various Tradi-Practitioners (TP) in order to determine interesting patterns for treating a given disease. Knowledge engineering methods for traditional medicine are useful to model suitably complex information needs, formalize knowledge of domain experts and highlight the effective practices for their integration to conventional medicine. The work described in this paper presents an approach which addresses two issues. First it aims at proposing a formal representation model of ATM knowledge and practices to facilitate their sharing and reusing. Then, it aims at providing a visual reasoning mechanism for selecting best available procedures and medicinal plants to treat diseases. The approach is based on the use of the Delphi method for capturing knowledge from various experts which necessitate reaching a consensus. Conceptual graph formalism is used to model ATM knowledge with visual reasoning capabilities and processes. The nested conceptual graphs are used to visually express the semantic meaning of Computational Tree Logic (CTL) constructs that are useful for formal specification of temporal properties of ATM domain knowledge. Our approach presents the advantage of mitigating knowledge loss with conceptual development assistance to improve the quality of ATM care (medical diagnosis and therapeutics), but also patient safety (drug monitoring)

- CREDIT RISK AND EFFICIENCY IN THE EUROPEAN BANKING SYSTEMS: A THREE-STAGE ANALYSIS

Increased competition and the attempts of European banks to increase their presence in other markets may have affected the efficiency and credit risk. The first of this aspects is based on the incentive to the banks to reduce cost in order to gain in competitiveness. The second is associated to their lack of knowledge of such markets and/or acceptance of a higher risk in order to increase their market share. Despite the importance of these aspects, banking literature has usually analyzed the effects of competition on the efficiency of banking systems without considering these aspects. The few studies that attempt to obtainrisk adjusted efficiency measures do not consider that part of the risk is due to exogenous circumstances. This article proposes a new three stage sequential technique, based on theDEA model and on the decomposition of risk into its internal and external components, for obtaining efficiency measures adjusted for risk and environment. It is seen that the technique allows the use of any existing technique of incorporation of environmental variables in DEA analysis. El incremento de la competencia y los intentos de los bancos europeos por aumentar supresencia en otros mercados pueden haber afectado tanto al nivel de eficiencia bancaria como alriesgo de crédito. El primero de los aspectos se fundamenta en el incentivo que tienen los bancosa reducir los costes para ganar competitividad. El segundo, está asociado a la ausencia decompetencia en tales mercados y/o a la aceptación de niveles mayores de riesgo con el fin deincrementar la cuota de mercado. A pesar de la importancia de estos aspectos, la literaturabancaria tradicionalmente ha analizado los efectos de la competencia en la eficiencia de lossistemas bancarios sin considerar estos efectos sobre el riesgo. Los escasos estudios queintentan obtener medidas de eficiencia ajustadas por el riesgo no consideran que parte del riesgoes debido a circunstancias exógenas. Este artículo propone una nueva técnica secuenciencial entres etapas, basado en el modelo DEA y en la descomposición del riesgo en sus componentesexterno e interno, para la obtención de medidas de eficiencia ajustadas por el riesgo y elambiente. La técnica se aplica al análisis de la eficiencia de los sistemas bancarios europeos ypermite el uso de cualquiera de las tecnicas existentes para la incorporación de variablesambientales en un contexto DEA.DEA, riesgo de crédito, morosidad, eficiencia, variables ambientales DEA, credit risk, bad loans, efficiency, environmental variables.

Asset Market Liquidity Risk Management: A Generalized Theoretical Modeling Approach for Trading and Fund Management Portfolios

Asset market liquidity risk is a significant and perplexing subject and though the term market liquidity risk is used quite chronically in academic literature it lacks an unambiguous definition, let alone understanding of the proposed risk measures. To this end, this paper presents a review of contemporary thoughts and attempts vis-à-vis asset market/liquidity risk management. Furthermore, this research focuses on the theoretical aspects of asset liquidity risk and presents critically two reciprocal approaches to measuring market liquidity risk for individual trading securities, and discusses the problems that arise in attempting to quantify asset market liquidity risk at a portfolio level. This paper extends research literature related to the assessment of asset market/liquidity risk by providing a generalized theoretical modeling underpinning that handle, from the same perspective, market and liquidity risks jointly and integrate both risks into a portfolio setting without a commensurate increase of statistical postulations. As such, we argue that market and liquidity risk components are correlated in most cases and can be integrated into one single market/liquidity framework that consists of two interrelated sub-components. The first component is attributed to the impact of adverse price movements, while the second component focuses on the risk of variation in transactions costs due to bid-ask spreads and it attempts to measure the likelihood that it will cost more than expected to liquidate the asset position. We thereafter propose a concrete theoretical foundation and a new modeling framework that attempts to tackle the issue of market/liquidity risk at a portfolio level by combining two asset market/liquidity risk models. The first model is a re-engineered and robust liquidity horizon multiplier that can aid in producing realistic asset market liquidity losses during the unwinding period. The essence of the model is based on the concept of Liquidity-Adjusted Value-at-Risk (L-VaR) framework, and particularly from the perspective of trading portfolios that have both long and short trading positions. Conversely, the second model is related to the transactions cost of liquidation due to bid-ask spreads and includes an improved technique that tackles the issue of bid-ask spread volatility. As such, the model comprises a new approach to contemplating the impact of time-varying volatility of the bid-ask spread and its upshot on the overall asset market/liquidity risk.Economic Capital; Emerging Markets; Financial Engineering; Financial Risk Management; Financial Markets; Liquidity Risk; Portfolio Management; Liquidity Adjusted Value at Risk

Influence of Environmental Risk on the Financial Structure of Oil and Gas Projects

The risk profile of a Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) project affects its debt service ability. In particular, the total risk profile of an oil and gas project is heavily influenced by its environmental risk exposure. However, this risk is often not given a considerable weight in risk analysis, resulting in underestimation of project's total riskiness and consequent overestimation of the debt capacity. This study is aimed at understanding the dependence of the capital structure of oil and gas BOT projects on environmental risk exposure and proposes a methodology for incorporating such important risk into the total risk rating process to determine the debt leverage. As a result, it is shown that integrating environmental risks into the risk score of a project yields higher values of risk exposure, which may lead to a lower debt-to-equity ratio

Taking regulatory action: part 1

"This document sets out the approach we intend to follow in exercising our statutory powers to take regulatory action. It will be of interest to those whom we regulate and to others who have an interest in our approach to regulation. From time to time we will re-evaluate our approach to taking regulatory action and revise or update this document as appropriate. This document forms part of the Qualifications Regulatory Framework, which sets out how we intend to perform our monitoring and enforcement functions." - Page 2

State Power Plant Siting: a Sketch of the Main Features of a Possible Approach

Work on various phases of power plant technology and siting has been underway within the Environmental Quality Laboratory (EQL) at the California Institute of Technology for some time. Of particular relevance to this memorandum, a good deal of effort has been devoted to institutional aspects of the siting process. Our purpose in what follows is to draw from our past work -- and from the discussions and work of others -- a sketch of the major outlines of one possible approach to power plant siting for the state. We hope in doing so to give our present views about the issues and how they might rationally be resolved, not so much to convince as to inform, stimulate fruitful ideas, and help provide the basis for constructive debate. We ourselves are not necessarily wedded to any of the discussion that follows; we find our own minds changing from time to time as we study the problem further or confront sound suggestions from others. Part I of this memorandum briefly outlines the major features of what we see as a fruitful approach to the siting problem. Sections A through E of Part I describe some elements of the approach; Section F sketches the actual siting decision process we suggest, and in doing so shows how the elements play into the process. Section G comments briefly on a suggested role for judicial review. In Part II we attempt to reduce our ideas to a fairly precise outline for a state siting statute, and to deal with certain matters of detail not covered in Part I. Section A of Part II introduces the statutory outline by summarizing each of its provisions; Section B sets forth the outline itself. The Appendix to this memorandum depicts our suggested approach in time-line fashion; it should be helpful in reading and understanding the proposal

Evidence and Extrapolation: Mechanisms for Regulating Off-Label Uses of Drugs and Devices

A recurring, foundational issue for evidence-based regulation is deciding whether to extend governmental approval from an existing use with sufficient current evidence of safety and efficacy to a novel use for which such evidence is currently lacking. This extrapolation issue arises in the medicines context when an approved drug or device that is already being marketed is being considered (1) for new conditions (such as off-label diagnostic categories), (2) for new patients (such as new subpopulations), (3) for new dosages or durations, or (4) as the basis for approving a related drug or device (such as a generic or biosimilar drug). Although the logic of preapproval testing and the precautionary principle—first, do no harm—would counsel in favor of prohibiting extrapolation approvals until after traditional safety and efficacy evidence exists, such delays would unreasonably sacrifice beneficial uses. The harm of accessing unsafe products must be balanced against the harm of restricting access to effective products. In fact, the Food and Drug Administration\u27s (FDA\u27s) current regulations in many ways reject the precautionary principle because they largely permit individual physicians to prescribe medications for off-label uses before any testing tailored to those uses has been done. The FDA\u27s approach empowers physicians, but overshoots the mark by allowing enduring use of drugs and devices with insubstantial support of safety and efficacy. This Article instead proposes a more dynamic and evolving evidence-based regime that charts a course between the Scylla and Charybdis of the overly conservative precautionary principle on one hand, and the overly liberal FDA regime on the other. Our approach calls for improvements in reporting, testing, and enforcement regulations to provide a more layered and nuanced system of regulatory incentives. First, we propose a more thoroughgoing reporting of off-label use (via the disclosure of diagnostic codes and detailing data) in manufacturers\u27 annual reports to the FDA, in the adverse event reports to the FDA, in Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement requests, and, for a subset of FDA-designated drugs, in prescriptions themselves. Second, we would substantially expand the agency\u27s utilization of postmarket testing, and we provide a novel framework for evaluating the need for postmarket testing. Finally, our approach calls for a tiered labeling system that would allow regulators and courts to draw finer reimbursement and liability distinctions among various drug uses, and would provide the agency both the regulatory teeth and the flexibility it presently lacks. Together, these reforms would improve the role of the FDA in the informational marketplace underlying physicians\u27 prescribing decisions. This evolutionary extrapolation framework could also be applied to other contexts

Taking regulatory action

"This document sets out the approach we intend to follow in exercising our statutory powers to take regulatory action. It is consistent with the Act in its description of our powers, the way in which we will exercise them, and the matters to which we will have regard. Where the Act gives us a discretion, it indicates how we intend to use it. This document will be of interest to those whom we regulate and to others who have an interest in our approach to regulation. From time to time we will re-evaluate our approach to taking regulatory action and revise or update this document as appropriate. This document forms part of the Qualifications Regulatory Framework, which sets out how we intend to perform our monitoring and enforcement functions. We have different duties and powers with regard to regulated qualifications and to regulated assessment arrangements. In this document we address only the regulatory action we can take in respect of awarding organisations and the regulated qualifications they award." - page 5