Projecting Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Actual Evapotranspiration for the Narmada River Basin in Central India in the Future

Assessment of actual evapotranspiration (ET) is essential as it controls the exchange of water and heat energy between the atmosphere and land surface. ET also influences the available water resources and assists in the crop water assessment in agricultural areas. This study involves the assessment of spatial distribution of seasonal and annual ET using Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) and provides an estimation of future changes in ET due to land use and climate change for a portion of the Narmada river basin in Central India. Climate change effects on future ET are assessed using the ACCESS1-0 model of CMIP5. A Markov Chain model estimated future land use based on the probability of changes in the past. The ET analysis is carried out for the years 2009-2011. The results indicate variation in the seasonal ET with the changed land use. High ET is observed over forest areas and crop lands, but ET decreases over crop lands after harvest. The overall annual ET is high over water bodies and forest areas. ET is high in the premonsoon season over the water bodies and decreases in the winter. Future ET in the 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s is shown with respect to land use and climate changes that project a gradual decrease due to the constant removal of the forest areas. The lowest ET is projected in 2050. Individual impact of land use change projects decreases in ET from 1990 to 2050, while climate change effect projects increases in ET in the future due to rises in temperature. However, the combined impacts of land use and climate changes indicate a decrease in ET in the future

Development of understanding in hydro-climate services in India to inform food and water security

This project aims to improve understanding of hydro-climate services in India in order to inform food and water security. It involves collaboration between UCL and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) in the UK and the National Institute of Hydrology (NIH), Roorkee and Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Bombay in India. This report is structured around the three main themes of the project: catchment hydrological modelling, assessment of environmental flows under climate change, and a feasibility study to assess the potential of developing guidance for India similar to that of the Flood Estimation Handbook for the UK

Understanding future water challenges in a highly regulated Indian river basin — modelling the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the upper Narmada

The Narmada river basin is a highly regulated catchment in central India, supporting a population of over 16 million people. In such extensively modified hydrological systems, the influence of anthropogenic alterations is often underrepresented or excluded entirely by large-scale hydrological models. The Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA) model is applied to the Upper Narmada, with all major dams, water abstractions and irrigation command areas included, which allows for the development of a holistic methodology for the assessment of water resources in the basin. The model is driven with 17 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to assess the impact of climate change on water resources in the basin for the period 2031–2060. The study finds that the hydrological regime within the basin is likely to intensify over the next half-century as a result of future climate change, causing long-term increases in monsoon season flow across the Upper Narmada. Climate is expected to have little impact on dry season flows, in comparison to water demand intensification over the same period, which may lead to increased water stress in parts of the basin

Strategic Analyses of the National River Linking Project (NRLP) of India, Series 1. India’s water future: scenarios and issues

River basinsEnvironmental flowsDevelopment projectsWater requirementsIrrigated farmingWater demandFood demandGroundwater irrigationIrrigation efficiencyWater harvestingSupplemental irrigationWater productivityWater conservationDrip irrigationSprinkler irrigationRainfed farmingAgricultural policy

Crops, Canopies and Waiting for Rain Water for Small-Plot Agricultural Production in the Tropics

Water will become increasingly scarce in the 21st century. Agriculture dominates anthropogenic water use and accounts for about 70% of water withdrawals globally. Unique challenges face tropical small-plot agricultural water management that differs from region to region. This dissertation examines two challenges facing tropical small-plot agriculture. Chapter 2 uses an experimental trial in Western Tanzania to create a unique longitudinal dataset of crop water stress measured over the growing season. The trial tests the effect of seed variety and fertilizer treatment on crop water stress over the growing season and during dry spells. Results demonstrate that hybrid varieties yield significantly more than the locally adapted traditional variety because they are better able to access nutrients and have better stomatal regulation over dry spells. Chapters 3 and 4 shift the focus to India. Chapter 3 characterizes the inter-annual dynamics of anthropogenic water stress across the Central Indian Highlands (CIH), while Chapter 4 examines the hydrological impacts of increasing forest cover on regional water supply and its implications for sustainable irrigation as well as food production. Within Chapter 3, I use extensive data sourced from the Indian government to spatially characterize water demand over the past decade by spatially mapping multiple waves of the Minor Irrigation Scheme Census and Livestock Census collected at the household level, along with monthly power generation datasets. The patio-temporal water demand data is coupled with remotely sensed precipitation and evapotranspiration data to force a customized Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model that computes water supply. Finally, I developed a Groundwater Supply Stress Index to account for the impact of irrigation groundwater withdrawals over the course of the year. Chapter 3 finds that 70% of CIH is water-stressed during some portion of the year and that irrigation makes up approximately 95% of anthropogenic water withdrawals. Chapter 4 extends the findings of chapter 3 in utilizing the infiltration-evapotranspiration trade-off hypothesis to understand the impact of converting croplands to forest on groundwater recharge within the CIH. In this Chapter, I collected and analyzed field data on field-saturated hydraulic conductivity to find that forested land has significantly higher infiltration rates than croplands. These finding are then included in a Spatial Processes in Hydrology model to simulate intra-annual hydrological dynamics of current forest cover versus a forest cover increased to 30% within the river basins of the CIH. Increased forest cover is one of India’s Nationally Determined Commitments at COP21 within the Mission to Green India with a stated aim of improving landscape hydrological functioning. I demonstrate that forest cover increase has the potential to increase groundwater recharge, which could be used to irrigate a second growing season and help offset the loss of cropland through conversion to forest. Collectively, these three chapters harness multiple sources of data and leverage a wide array of innovative methods at multiple scales to shed light on important water management issues faced by small-plot agriculture in the tropics and on opportunities for better agricultural water resource management across two continents

India’s water future to 2025-2050: Business-as-usual scenario and deviations

Poverty / Mapping/ Water demand / Water supply / Population growth / Crop production / Crop yield / Groundwater irrigation / Food security

Impacts of future climate and land use change on water yield in a semi‐arid basin in Iran

Studying the interaction between hydrology, land use and climate change is necessary to support sustainable water resources management. It is unknown how land management interventions in dry climate conditions can benefit water yield in the context of climate and land use change interactions. In this study, we assessed the effects of both land use and climate change on the Mordagh Chay basin water yield using the Integrated Valuation Ecosystem Service and Tradeoffs model (InVEST). First, we modelled the current water yield, followed by developing six combined climate‐land use scenarios until 2030 based on the CCSM4 climate model for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We used three future land use scenarios simulated by the Dyna‐CLUE model. The trend scenario of land use change, which does not include any improvements in irrigation efficiency, significantly affected basin water yield under both climate scenarios. Water yield decreases by 19.8% and 31.8% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Under all land use scenarios that included improvements in irrigation efficiency the water yield responded positively. For the RCP4.5 scenario, the water yield was projected to increase between 16.6 and 18% depending on the land use scenario. The increase in water yield under the RCP8.5 climate scenario was much lower than for the RCP4.5 scenario (about one third). Overall, the results showed that by adopting appropriate irrigation efficiency, it is possible to achieve a better balance between environmental needs, regional economic and agricultural development. The results provide insight into possible sustainable development options and also provide guidance for managing the other Urmia Lake sub‐basins while the approach of integrated assessment of climate, land use change and land management options is also applicable in other conditions to help inform sustainable management

Hydro-Climatic Changes and Corresponding Impacts on Agricultural Water Demand in the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh

The Ganges Delta in Bangladesh, a transboundary rural river basin, is an example of water-related calamities due to natural and human-induced stresses. It is an agriculture-dominated area with the presence of Sundarbans mangrove forest. Recently this area is facing unfavorable conditions due to limitations in quantity, quality, and timing of available freshwater. As a result, floods, droughts, water scarcity, stream depletion, salinity intrusion, excessive sedimentation are becoming common phenomena. These calamities are making this area unsuitable for agriculture and vulnerable to the Sundarbans’ ecosystem. This study aims to provide technical insight into issues related to water scarcity and projected agricultural water demand for 2020-2100 considering the climate change uncertainties. We addressed three critical areas to attain this purpose. As a first task, this study attempted to analyze and understand the observed hydrological changes over the past six decades to fathom the critical reasons for freshwater scarcity. Secondly, interdependency, availability, and accessibility of surface water and groundwater were analyzed to investigate the adequacy of current water demand and supply in agriculture, industrial and domestic sectors. Irrigation demand is much higher than others and occupies 93% of the total water demand. Similarly, irrigation is 96% of total water withdrawal. This high demand in the agriculture sector led to our next objective to estimate agricultural demand for this century. It helps to understand an overall agricultural water consumption scenario for the future. This study provides necessary background information, which is vital for hydro-economically feasible agricultural water management plans

Hydrologic modelling

Advances in computational tools and modeling techniques combined with enhanced process knowledge have, in recent decades, facilitated a rapid progress in hydrologic modeling. From the use of traditional lumped models, the hydrologic science has moved to the much more complex, fully distributed models that exude an enhanced knowledge of hydrologic processes. Despite this progress, uncertainties in hydrologic predictions remain. The Indian contribution to hydrologic science literature in the recent years has been significant, covering areas of surface water, groundwater, climate change impacts and quantification of uncertainties. Future scientific efforts in hydrologic science in India are expected to involve better, more robust observation techniques and datasets, deeper process-knowledge at a range of spatio-temporal scales, understanding links between hydrologic and other natural and human systems and integrated solutions using multidisciplinary approaches