A review of applied methods in Europe for flood-frequency analysis in a changing environment

The report presents a review of methods used in Europe for trend analysis, climate change projections and non-stationary analysis of extreme precipitation and flood frequency. In addition, main findings of the analyses are presented, including a comparison of trend analysis results and climate change projections. Existing guidelines in Europe on design flood and design rainfall estimation that incorporate climate change are reviewed. The report concludes with a discussion of research needs on non-stationary frequency analysis for considering the effects of climate change and inclusion in design guidelines. Trend analyses are reported for 21 countries in Europe with results for extreme precipitation, extreme streamflow or both. A large number of national and regional trend studies have been carried out. Most studies are based on statistical methods applied to individual time series of extreme precipitation or extreme streamflow using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test or regression analysis. Some studies have been reported that use field significance or regional consistency tests to analyse trends over larger areas. Some of the studies also include analysis of trend attribution. The studies reviewed indicate that there is some evidence of a general increase in extreme precipitation, whereas there are no clear indications of significant increasing trends at regional or national level of extreme streamflow. For some smaller regions increases in extreme streamflow are reported. Several studies from regions dominated by snowmelt-induced peak flows report decreases in extreme streamflow and earlier spring snowmelt peak flows. Climate change projections have been reported for 14 countries in Europe with results for extreme precipitation, extreme streamflow or both. The review shows various approaches for producing climate projections of extreme precipitation and flood frequency based on alternative climate forcing scenarios, climate projections from available global and regional climate models, methods for statistical downscaling and bias correction, and alternative hydrological models. A large number of the reported studies are based on an ensemble modelling approach that use several climate forcing scenarios and climate model projections in order to address the uncertainty on the projections of extreme precipitation and flood frequency. Some studies also include alternative statistical downscaling and bias correction methods and hydrological modelling approaches. Most studies reviewed indicate an increase in extreme precipitation under a future climate, which is consistent with the observed trend of extreme precipitation. Hydrological projections of peak flows and flood frequency show both positive and negative changes. Large increases in peak flows are reported for some catchments with rainfall-dominated peak flows, whereas a general decrease in flood magnitude and earlier spring floods are reported for catchments with snowmelt-dominated peak flows. The latter is consistent with the observed trends. The review of existing guidelines in Europe on design floods and design rainfalls shows that only few countries explicitly address climate change. These design guidelines are based on climate change adjustment factors to be applied to current design estimates and may depend on design return period and projection horizon. The review indicates a gap between the need for considering climate change impacts in design and actual published guidelines that incorporate climate change in extreme precipitation and flood frequency. Most of the studies reported are based on frequency analysis assuming stationary conditions in a certain time window (typically 30 years) representing current and future climate. There is a need for developing more consistent non-stationary frequency analysis methods that can account for the transient nature of a changing climate

Analysis domain model for shared virtual environments

The field of shared virtual environments, which also encompasses online games and social 3D environments, has a system landscape consisting of multiple solutions that share great functional overlap. However, there is little system interoperability between the different solutions. A shared virtual environment has an associated problem domain that is highly complex raising difficult challenges to the development process, starting with the architectural design of the underlying system. This paper has two main contributions. The first contribution is a broad domain analysis of shared virtual environments, which enables developers to have a better understanding of the whole rather than the part(s). The second contribution is a reference domain model for discussing and describing solutions - the Analysis Domain Model

Tangible user interfaces : past, present and future directions

In the last two decades, Tangible User Interfaces (TUIs) have emerged as a new interface type that interlinks the digital and physical worlds. Drawing upon users' knowledge and skills of interaction with the real non-digital world, TUIs show a potential to enhance the way in which people interact with and leverage digital information. However, TUI research is still in its infancy and extensive research is required in or- der to fully understand the implications of tangible user interfaces, to develop technologies that further bridge the digital and the physical, and to guide TUI design with empirical knowledge. This paper examines the existing body of work on Tangible User In- terfaces. We start by sketching the history of tangible user interfaces, examining the intellectual origins of this field. We then present TUIs in a broader context, survey application domains, and review frame- works and taxonomies. We also discuss conceptual foundations of TUIs including perspectives from cognitive sciences, phycology, and philoso- phy. Methods and technologies for designing, building, and evaluating TUIs are also addressed. Finally, we discuss the strengths and limita- tions of TUIs and chart directions for future research

Deep Space Network information system architecture study

The purpose of this article is to describe an architecture for the Deep Space Network (DSN) information system in the years 2000-2010 and to provide guidelines for its evolution during the 1990s. The study scope is defined to be from the front-end areas at the antennas to the end users (spacecraft teams, principal investigators, archival storage systems, and non-NASA partners). The architectural vision provides guidance for major DSN implementation efforts during the next decade. A strong motivation for the study is an expected dramatic improvement in information-systems technologies, such as the following: computer processing, automation technology (including knowledge-based systems), networking and data transport, software and hardware engineering, and human-interface technology. The proposed Ground Information System has the following major features: unified architecture from the front-end area to the end user; open-systems standards to achieve interoperability; DSN production of level 0 data; delivery of level 0 data from the Deep Space Communications Complex, if desired; dedicated telemetry processors for each receiver; security against unauthorized access and errors; and highly automated monitor and control

The Challenges in SDN/ML Based Network Security : A Survey

Machine Learning is gaining popularity in the network security domain as many more network-enabled devices get connected, as malicious activities become stealthier, and as new technologies like Software Defined Networking (SDN) emerge. Sitting at the application layer and communicating with the control layer, machine learning based SDN security models exercise a huge influence on the routing/switching of the entire SDN. Compromising the models is consequently a very desirable goal. Previous surveys have been done on either adversarial machine learning or the general vulnerabilities of SDNs but not both. Through examination of the latest ML-based SDN security applications and a good look at ML/SDN specific vulnerabilities accompanied by common attack methods on ML, this paper serves as a unique survey, making a case for more secure development processes of ML-based SDN security applications.Comment: 8 pages. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1705.0056

A failure diagnosis and impact assessment prototype for Space Station Freedom

NASA is investigating the use of advanced automation to enhance crew productivity for Space Station Freedom in numerous areas, one being failure management. A prototype is described that diagnoses failure sources and assesses the future impacts of those failures on other Freedom entities

Prototype of Fault Adaptive Embedded Software for Large-Scale Real-Time Systems

This paper describes a comprehensive prototype of large-scale fault adaptive embedded software developed for the proposed Fermilab BTeV high energy physics experiment. Lightweight self-optimizing agents embedded within Level 1 of the prototype are responsible for proactive and reactive monitoring and mitigation based on specified layers of competence. The agents are self-protecting, detecting cascading failures using a distributed approach. Adaptive, reconfigurable, and mobile objects for reliablility are designed to be self-configuring to adapt automatically to dynamically changing environments. These objects provide a self-healing layer with the ability to discover, diagnose, and react to discontinuities in real-time processing. A generic modeling environment was developed to facilitate design and implementation of hardware resource specifications, application data flow, and failure mitigation strategies. Level 1 of the planned BTeV trigger system alone will consist of 2500 DSPs, so the number of components and intractable fault scenarios involved make it impossible to design an `expert system' that applies traditional centralized mitigative strategies based on rules capturing every possible system state. Instead, a distributed reactive approach is implemented using the tools and methodologies developed by the Real-Time Embedded Systems group.Comment: 2nd Workshop on Engineering of Autonomic Systems (EASe), in the 12th Annual IEEE International Conference and Workshop on the Engineering of Computer Based Systems (ECBS), Washington, DC, April, 200

A rapid prototyping/artificial intelligence approach to space station-era information management and access

Applications of rapid prototyping and Artificial Intelligence techniques to problems associated with Space Station-era information management systems are described. In particular, the work is centered on issues related to: (1) intelligent man-machine interfaces applied to scientific data user support, and (2) the requirement that intelligent information management systems (IIMS) be able to efficiently process metadata updates concerning types of data handled. The advanced IIMS represents functional capabilities driven almost entirely by the needs of potential users. Space Station-era scientific data projected to be generated is likely to be significantly greater than data currently processed and analyzed. Information about scientific data must be presented clearly, concisely, and with support features to allow users at all levels of expertise efficient and cost-effective data access. Additionally, mechanisms for allowing more efficient IIMS metadata update processes must be addressed. The work reported covers the following IIMS design aspects: IIMS data and metadata modeling, including the automatic updating of IIMS-contained metadata, IIMS user-system interface considerations, including significant problems associated with remote access, user profiles, and on-line tutorial capabilities, and development of an IIMS query and browse facility, including the capability to deal with spatial information. A working prototype has been developed and is being enhanced