Global Warming Induced Water-Cycle Changes and Industrial Production – A Scenario Analysis for the Upper Danube River Basin

Using the environmental decision support system DANUBIA, we analyze the effects ofclimate change on industry and compare the effectiveness of different adaptation strategies.The observed area covers Germany and Austria up to 2025. Since the main effects ofclimate change in this region are expected to be caused through changes in the watercycle,we place a special focus on the exemplary region of the upper Danube catchmentarea. Industry is the main regional user of water resources. Water is an essential productionfactor and is used in almost every production process of a manufactured good. We applyestimates of regional production functions, based on AFiD-panel micro-data for Germany,to calibrate regional industrial production and water usage within DANUBIA. Thus, weare able to simulate region-specific effects of climate change and the impact of socialscenarios using an unprecedented model of reciprocal influences of a huge network ofinterdisciplinary research areas. Simulation results show wide regional differences inproduction site reactions as well as between differing scenarios. Comparing scenarios ofmoderate and serious climate change, we are able to illustrate the severe environmentaleffects in some regions and to determine considerable economic effects on regionaleconomic growth.Environmental decision support system, climate change, water-cycle, river basin management

Resource value, productivity and ecosystem integrity: an intertemporal water resource management tool in a river basin

River basinsWater allocationWater resource managementModelsFarmersPastoralism

Water use and salinity in the MurrayÐDarling Basin: a state-contingent model

The MurrayÐDarling Basin comprises over 1 million square kilometres; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12,800 gigalitres of irrigation water is used to produce over 40 per cent of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. The object of the present paper is to show how the linear and nonlinear programming models commonly used in modelling problems such as those arising in the MurrayÐDarling Basin may be adapted to incorporate a state-contingent representation of uncertainty.Murray model state-contingent

Experiences in an integrated assessment of water allocation issues in the Namoi river catchment, Australia

The Namoi river catchment in northern NSW is an important irrigation region. However water resources in this region are increasingly stressed. Both surface and groundwater supplies are overallocated in many areas of the catchment. Management options to reduce allocations in line with available supply and environmental requirements are expected to have long term social, economic and environmental implications. This paper looks at an integrated assessment model which has been developed to assess long term outcomes of management options for water allocation in the catchment. The development of this tool has been undertaken using an iterative approach with key stakeholders. Feedback on the model and preferred future directions of development arising from discussions with relevant stakeholder groups are discussed. A key aspect of the model framework is that it has been developed to be general enough for reapplication to water allocation issues in other catchments Lessons are drawn from this experience in framework development for the field of integrated assessment

Sustaining communities by learning from integrated assessments of place

Communities of place exist at many scales: from global village through nations, catchments, and local governments to millions of properties at the level of households and workplaces. Interventions from beyond their boundaries ensure institutional arrangements for their governance are complex. Political and bureaucratic actors network across all decision-making levels. The actors and their roles change frequently. Even so, connecting two activities can begin the process of engaging stakeholders in sustaining a community of place. First, stakeholders need to assess community conditions relative to a sustainability target. Second, stakeholders have to learn from, and respond to, the information contained in the assessment. In 2005, the authors joined with the Campaspe Shire Council in piloting a practice connecting the two activities. Trends of growth, steady state, or decline, in indicators of the Shire’s human, built, and natural capital stocks were estimated by pooling local and external knowledge. Results were presented as a balance sheet. Senior management then drafted some thirty response-statements by interpreting the accounts. A stakeholder forum used decision-support software to structure relationships between the response-statements. Conducting a SWOT analysis during the forum provided further insights into place-based learning for sustaining communities, and for building capacities to do so. Three key learnings: (1) Understanding their operational impacts within their community of place is the most useful context within which organisations can engage in sustainability learning; (2) the capital approach to measuring sustainable development simplifies learning; and (3) qualitative local knowledge is a significant element in sustainability assessment and accounting

Ecological change in Lough Erne: influence of catchment changes and species invasions

Lough Erne in Northern Ireland has been the subject of much research over the last 30 years by, amongst others, the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (DARD). In this article, the authors provide a summary of a workshop held on the 16–17th October 2003 in Enniskillen, on the shores of Lough Erne, which gave an opportunity to step back and take a holistic look at the Erne lakes. Ecological change has been driven by many factors, including land use changes and species invasions. The workshop consisted of five sessions which are summarised in this article: Session 1 – Invasive species, nutrients, phytoplankton and macrophytes; Session 2 – Zooplankton, benthic macroinvertebrates and fish; Session 3 – An ecosystem approach – relating the previous sessions; Session 4 – How does Lough Erne fit into lake classifications? Implications of the Water Framework Directive; Session 5 – Using new techniques to examine food webs and species invasions. Identifying a future research programme for Lough Erne

DYNAMIC MODELS, EXTERNALITIES AND SUSTAINABILITY IN AGRICULTURE

The goal of sustainability in the management of natural resources and agricultural systems has received increasing attention during the 1990's. The many dimensions of the problem have been extensively discussed in the literature and a recognition of the interaction between economic, biological and social objectives have led to an acceptance of its multidisciplinary nature. When studying sustainability in agriculture, two aspects which cannot be ignored are (i) any measure must include economic as well as biological criteria and (ii) the dynamic nature of the production system and the environment (both physical and economic) must be accounted for. The goal of sustainable agricultural practices at the microeconomic level is explored in this paper, in an attempt to link the individual producer behaviour to the regulatory environment. Particular attention is paid to the dynamic aspect in the context of a grazing system, where plant and animal populations interact with each other and are influenced by the environment. An optimal control formulation is used to discuss the alternative ways in which externalities (such as salinity, soil loss and fertiliser and chemical run-off) can be incorporated into a model. The problem of valuing externalities and the role of the discount rate on optimal management strategies are briefly discussed.sustainability, dynamic modelling, bioeconomics, Environmental Economics and Policy, Livestock Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Review of river fisheries valuation in tropical Asia

This study attempts to estimate the economic value of riverine fisheries in tropical Asia and quantify the economic impacts of any changes to the environment that affects rivers and hence fisheries. The value of riverine fisheries has been considered in the following two ways: firstly, through a compilation and summary of the results of existing studies on this topic; secondly, by estimating the direct use value of riverine and floodplain fishing by country using quantities and freshwater fish prices derived from various sources. Furthermore, a review of the characteristics of the fisheries is presented. These fisheries have been shown to be valuable (i.e., economically or socially important) in at least two specific ways: as a generator of commercially marketable output, and as a source of income and employment in relatively impoverished communities

Technologies for climate change adaptation: agricultural sector

This Guidebook presents a selection of technologies for climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector. A set of twenty two adaptation technologies are showcased that are primarily based on the principals of agroecology, but also include scientific technologies of climate and biological sciences complemented with important sociological and institutional capacity building processes that are required to make adaptation function. The technologies cover monitoring and forecasting the climate, sustainable water use and management, soil management, sustainable crop management, seed conservation, sustainable forest management and sustainable livestock management. Technologies that tend to homogenize the natural environment and agricultural production have low possibilities of success in conditions of environmental stress that are likely to result from climate change. On the other hand, technologies that allow for, and indeed promote, diversity are more likely to provide a strategy which strengthens agricultural production in the face of uncertain future climate change scenarios. In this sense, the twenty two technologies showcased in this Guidebook have been selected because they facilitate the conservation and restoration of diversity while at the same time providing opportunities for increasing agricultural productivity. Many of these technologies are not new to agricultural production practices, but they are implemented based on assessment of current and possible future impacts of climate change in a particular location. Agro-ecology is an approach that encompasses concepts of sustainable production and biodiversity promotion and therefore provides a useful framework for identifying and selecting appropriate adaptation technologies for the agricultural sector. The Guidebook provides a systematic analysis of the most relevant information available on climate change adaptation technologies in the agriculture sector. It has been compiled based on a literature review of key publications, journal articles, and e-platforms, and by drawing on documented experiences sourced from a range of organizations working on projects and programmes concerned with climate change adaptation technologies in the agricultural sector. Its geographic scope is focused on developing countries where high levels of poverty, agricultural production, climate variability and biological diversity currently intersect. Key concepts around climate change adaptation are not universally agreed. It is therefore important to understand local contexts – especially social and cultural norms - when working with national and sub-national stakeholders to make informed decisions about appropriate technology options. Thus, decision-making processes should be participative, facilitated, and consensus-building oriented and should be based on the following key guiding principles: increasing awareness and knowledge, strengthening institutions, protecting natural resources, providing financial assistance and developing context-specific strategies. For decision-making the Community–Based Adaptation framework is proposed for creating inclusive governance that engages a range of stakeholders directly with local or district government and national coordinating bodies, and facilitates participatory planning, monitoring and implementation of adaptation activities. Seven criteria are suggested for the prioritization of adaptation technologies: (i) The extent to which the technology maintains or strengthens biological diversity and is environmentally sustainable; (ii) The extent to which the technology facilitates access to information systems and awareness of climate change information; (iii) Whether the technology support water, carbon and nutrient cycles and enables stable and/or increased productivity; (iv) Income-generating potential, cost-benefit analysis and contribution to improved equity; (v) Respect for cultural diversity and facilitation of inter-cultural exchange; (vi) Potential for integration into regional and national policies and can be scaled-up; (vii) The extent to which the technology builds formal and information institutions and social networks. Finally, recommendations are set out for practitioners and policy makers: • There is an urgent need for improved climate modelling and forecasting which can provide a basis for informed decision-making and the implementation of adaptation strategies. This should include traditional knowledge. • Information is also required to better understand the behaviour of plants, animals, pests and diseases as they react to climate change. • Potential changes in economic and social systems in the future under different climate scenarios should also be investigated so that the implications of adaptation strategy and planning choices are better understood. • It is important to secure effective flows of information through appropriate dissemination channels. This is vital for building adaptive capacity and decision-making processes. • Improved analysis of adaptation technologies is required to show how they can contribute to building adaptive capacity and resilience in the agricultural sector. This information needs to be compiled and disseminated for a range of stakeholders from local to national level. • Relationships between policy makers, researchers and communities should be built so that technologies and planning processes are developed in partnership, responding to producers’ needs and integrating their knowledge