A survey of simulation techniques in commerce and defence

Despite the developments in Modelling and Simulation (M&S) tools and techniques over the past years, there has been a gap in the M&S research and practice in healthcare on developing a toolkit to assist the modellers and simulation practitioners with selecting an appropriate set of techniques. This study is a preliminary step towards this goal. This paper presents some results from a systematic literature survey on applications of M&S in the commerce and defence domains that could inspire some improvements in the healthcare. Interim results show that in the commercial sector Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) has been the most widely used technique with System Dynamics (SD) in second place. However in the defence sector, SD has gained relatively more attention. SD has been found quite useful for qualitative and soft factors analysis. From both the surveys it becomes clear that there is a growing trend towards using hybrid M&S approaches

WESTT (Workload, Error, Situational Awareness, Time and Teamwork): An analytical prototyping system for command and control

Modern developments in the use of information technology within command and control allow unprecedented scope for flexibility in the way teams deal with tasks. These developments, together with the increased recognition of the importance of knowledge management within teams present difficulties for the analyst in terms of evaluating the impacts of changes to task composition or team membership. In this paper an approach to this problem is presented that represents team behaviour in terms of three linked networks (representing task, social network structure and knowledge) within the integrative WESTT software tool. In addition, by automating analyses of workload and error based on the same data that generate the networks, WESTT allows the user to engage in the process of rapid and iterative “analytical prototyping”. For purposes of illustration an example of the use of this technique with regard to a simple tactical vignette is presented

Police reform in Thailand post-2006

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Incentive contracting - An annotated and classified modern bibliography

Incentive contracts bibliograph

Combat Air Forces Campaign Level Modernization Planning-A Study in Group Decision Making

Modernization is a critical component of the current transformation effort within the Department of Defense (DoD) Effective and efficient modernization planning will provide for the improved allocation of limited funding. The Air Force currently conducts capabilities based modernization planning to identify shortfalls. Air Combat Command (ACC) utilizes multi-objective decision analysis (MODA) techniques to support the modernization planning process (MPP). A MODA model has been created to identify and quantify capability shortfalls across a diverse range of mission areas. Groups of subject matter experts are utilized to provide model inputs improving the usefulness and credibility of the model. The intent of this research effort is to document the ACC modernization model and provide insight into their use of groups

Reassessing civil control of the South African armed services

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Management, University of the Witwatersrand, in 50% fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Management (in the Field of Security). March 2016Defence Review 2015 concluded that the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) was in a “critical state of decline”, faced imminent and irreversible loss of capabilities and questioned its ability to meet all of its ordered defence commitments (Department of Defence, 2015c, pp. ix; 99). This is a grave indictment considering it is entrusted with the constitutional mandate to defend the Republic (Republic of South Africa, 1996, Sec 200). This begs the question “what went wrong?” Causes raised include the apparent disjuncture between the defence mandate and budget. It is unlikely, however that the blame can be attributed to a funding shortfall and overly ambitious defence mandate, alone. Some question whether a flawed institutional civil control structure might be to blame for compromising military command and thereby the ability of the armed forces to ensure effective defence. Did the new government go too far in imposing robust civil control over the SANDF in 1994, effectively emasculating the SANDF? Alternatively is the selected model for South Africa’s civil control and oversight regimes simply inappropriate or otherwise ineffective? Whether the failure lies with the selected model itself or in its execution are issues that were examined in the study. This study takes as its point of departure, various Defence Review 2015 policy proposals that, it was argued, point to deeper flaws in the institutional civil-military arrangements within the DOD. As such, they are fundamental to our understanding of the civil control challenges confronting the DOD and the formulation of policy options and recommendations. What the study highlighted was that the ultimate challenge for the DOD could be reduced in simple terms to finding an agreeable solution that would satisfy both the statutory civil control precepts and the Chief SANDF’s desire for freedom from undue interference with his executive military command. Central to the entire civil control debate is of course the balance DOD design, around which the DOD transformation project is structured, and the role of the Sec Def in exercising civil control in a ‘collaborative relationship’ with the Chief SANDF. There is general consensus that the balance DOD design has 1 Colonel C.B. Hepburn, late of the Transvaal Scottish, is employed on a term contract as Deputy Director Departmental Performance Monitoring and Evaluation; Defence Policy, Strategy and Planning Division; Defence Secretariat. His staffing at the integrated Defence Head Office provided him with access to the strategic level of defence policy decision-making and daily engagement with senior leaders at the point of interface between the ‘civilian’ Defence Secretariat and the Defence Force. The views expressed in this student academic research paper are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defence or any other agency of the South African government. C.B. HEPBURN 416498 failed to live up to expectations and that it has proven difficult to establish and maintain the optimum balance between civil control and an effective armed service. What is equally obvious is that even after more than two decades of democratic consolidation; the DOD has yet to complete its transformation. If Defence Review 2015 is anything to go by then it can be expected that the process is set to continue for at least the next 25 years. That civil control remains a contested concept within the DOD is not in doubt. The solutions may be elusive; however, there is strong evidence that the answers lie more with how the Def Sec should be capacitated rather than the current focus on repositioning to better enable civil control of defence and to perform the duty assigned to it. Structural issues are clearly a factor and should indeed be dealt with in the broader DOD reorganisation. Nonetheless, there is a strong argument presented that instead of restructuring, better use should be made of performance agreements, delegations and detailed instructions. Given that the DOD is recognised in law as a ‘special case’, there should be a strong legal argument for amending the applicable legislation to make provision for a ‘special delegation regime’ or performance agreements, as a solution to the DOD’s immediate needs for providing an effective armed service. Keywords: Civil control; oversight; Defence Review 2015; South African National Defence Force; armed services; budget; civil-military relations; Constitutional mandate; defence ministry, military command and control, defence secretariat.GR201

Survival through networks: the 'grip' of the administrative links in the Russian post-Soviet context

© 2014 Taylor & Francis. Based on an analysis of the post-Soviet transformation experience of four defence sector organizations in a Russian region where the defence sector occupies a substantial part of the local economy, this article develops a typology of network relationships: Grooved Inter-relationship Patterns (Gr’ip) networks and Fluid Inter-relationship Patterns (Fl’ip) networks. This typology can be applied to a range of transition/emerging market and low system trust contexts. Gr’ip networks, in this case, represent the persisting legacy of the Soviet command-administrative system. Fl’ip networks are here an attempt by the defence companies to link into the civilian supply chains of a developing market economy. This article argues that Gr’ip networks had and still have a crucial role to play in Russian enterprises’ survival and development

Historical Exploration - Learning Lessons from the Past to Inform the Future

This report examines a number of exploration campaigns that have taken place during the last 700 years, and considers them from a risk perspective. The explorations are those led by Christopher Columbus, Sir Walter Raleigh, John Franklin, Sir Ernest Shackleton, the Company of Scotland to Darien and the Apollo project undertaken by NASA. To provide a wider context for investigating the selected exploration campaigns, we seek ways of finding analogies at mission, programmatic and strategic levels and thereby to develop common themes. Ultimately, the purpose of the study is to understand how risk has shaped past explorations, in order to learn lessons for the future. From this, we begin to identify and develop tools for assessing strategic risk in future explorations. Figure 0.1 (see Page 6) summarizes the key inputs used to shape the study, the process and the results, and provides a graphical overview of the methodology used in the project. The first step was to identify the potential cases that could be assessed and to create criteria for selection. These criteria were collaboratively developed through discussion with a Business Historian. From this, six cases were identified as meeting our key criteria. Preliminary analysis of two of the cases allowed us to develop an evaluation framework that was used across all six cases to ensure consistency. This framework was revised and developed further as all six cases were analyzed. A narrative and summary statistics were created for each exploration case studied, in addition to a method for visualizing the important dimensions that capture major events. These Risk Experience Diagrams illustrate how the realizations of events, linked to different types of risks, have influenced the historical development of each exploration campaign. From these diagrams, we can begin to compare risks across each of the cases using a common framework. In addition, exploration risks were classified in terms of mission, program and strategic risks. From this, a Venn diagram and Belief Network were developed to identify how different exploration risks interacted. These diagrams allow us to quickly view the key risk drivers and their interactions in each of the historical cases. By looking at the context in which individual missions take place we have been able to observe the dynamics within an exploration campaign, and gain an understanding of how these interact with influences from stakeholders and competitors. A qualitative model has been created to capture how these factors interact, and are further challenged by unwanted events such as mission failures and competitor successes. This Dynamic Systemic Risk Model is generic and applies broadly to all the exploration ventures studied. This model is an amalgamation of a System Dynamics model, hence incorporating the natural feedback loops within each exploration mission, and a risk model, in order to ensure that the unforeseen events that may occur can be incorporated into the modeling. Finally, an overview is given of the motivational drivers and summaries are presented of the overall costs borne in each exploration venture. An important observation is that all the cases - with the exception of Apollo - were failures in terms of meeting their original objectives. However, despite this, several were strategic successes and indeed changed goals as needed in an entrepreneurial way. The Risk Experience Diagrams developed for each case were used to quantitatively assess which risks were realized most often during our case studies and to draw comparisons at mission, program and strategic levels. In addition, using the Risk Experience Diagrams and the narrative of each case, specific lessons for future exploration were identified. There are three key conclusions to this study: Analyses of historical cases have shown that there exists a set of generic risk classes. This set of risk classes cover mission, program and strategic levels, and includes all the risks encountered in the cases studied. At mission level these are Leadership Decisions, Internal Events and External Events; at program level these are Lack of Learning, Resourcing and Mission Failure; at Strategic Level they are Programmatic Failure, Stakeholder Perception and Goal Change. In addition there are two further risks that impact at all levels: Self-Interest of Actors, and False Model. There is no reason to believe that these risk classes will not be applicable to future exploration and colonization campaigns. We have deliberately selected a range of different exploration and colonization campaigns, taking place between the 15th Century and the 20th Century. The generic risk framework is able to describe the significant types of risk for these missions. Furthermore, many of these risks relate to how human beings interact and learn lessons to guide their future behavior. Although we are better schooled than our forebears and are technically further advanced, there is no reason to think we are fundamentally better at identifying, prioritizing and controlling these classes of risk. Modern risk modeling techniques are capable of addressing mission and program risk but are not as well suited to strategic risk. We have observed that strategic risks are prevalent throughout historic exploration and colonization campaigns. However, systematic approaches do not exist at the moment to analyze such risks. A risk-informed approach to understanding what happened in the past helps us guard against the danger of assuming that those events were inevitable, and highlights those chance events that produced the history that the world experienced. In turn, it allows us to learn more clearly from the past about the way our modern risk modeling techniques might help us to manage the future - and also bring to light those areas where they may not. This study has been retrospective. Based on this analysis, the potential for developing the work in a prospective way by applying the risk models to future campaigns is discussed. Follow on work from this study will focus on creating a portfolio of tools for assessing strategic and programmatic risk