Uncertainty Analysis on Risk Assessment of Water Inrush in Karst Tunnels

An improved attribute recognition method is reviewed and discussed to evaluate the risk of water inrush in karst tunnels. Due to the complex geology and hydrogeology, the methodology discusses the uncertainties related to the evaluation index and attribute measure. The uncertainties can be described by probability distributions. The values of evaluation index and attribute measure were employed through random numbers generated by Monte Carlo simulations and an attribute measure belt was chosen instead of the linearity attribute measure function. Considering the uncertainties of evaluation index and attribute measure, the probability distributions of four risk grades are calculated using random numbers generated by Monte Carlo simulation. According to the probability distribution, the risk level can be analyzed under different confidence coefficients. The method improvement is more accurate and feasible compared with the results derived from the attribute recognition model. Finally, the improved attribute recognition method was applied and verified in Longmenshan tunnel in China

Stochastic Dominance Approach to Evaluate Optimism Bias in Truck Toll Forecasts

Optimism bias is a consistent feature associated with truck toll forecasts, à la Standard & Poor’s and the NCHRP synthesis reports. Given the persistent problem, two major sources of this bias are explored. In particular, the ignorance of operating cost as a demand-side factor and lack of attention to user heterogeneity are found to contribute to this bias. To address it, stochastic dominance analysis is used to assess the risk associated with toll revenue forecasts. For a hypothetical corridor, it is shown that ignorance of operating cost savings can lead to upward bias in the threshold value of time distribution. Furthermore, dominance analysis demonstrates that there is greater risk associated with the revenue forecast when demand heterogeneity is factored in. The approach presented can be generally applied to all toll forecasts and is not restricted to trucks.Forecast Bias; Operating costs; Risk assessment; Savings; Stochastic Dominance; Tolls;Trucks

Probabilistic cost-benefit analysis for mitigating hydrogeological risks in underground construction

Leakage of groundwater into underground facilities can subsequently cause groundwater drawdown, subsidence and subsidence damages to the built-up environment. In order to reduce the risk of damage, measures to mitigate the risks must often be implemented. The aim of this paper is to describe and demonstrate a probabilistic cost-benefit analysis approach to assess the economic profitability of investing in different risk mitigation alternatives. Since underground construction is always associated with uncertainties, the analysis uses probability distribution functions for uncertain parameters and Monte Carlo simulations to quantify probabilities of damage and implementation costs. The proposed approach is exemplified with a case study, the road tunnel project Bypass (F\uf6rbifart) Stockholm in eastern Sweden, for which four risk mitigation alternatives were evaluated. In conclusion, the approach helps to highlight the economic effects of different risk mitigation approaches and constitute a transparent support for decisions on implementation of risk mitigation. For the case study, the analysis indicates that the implementation costs of ∼ 7000 MSEK (700 million EUR) for risk mitigation needed to fulfil the legal requirements, from the Swedish Land- and Environmental court, in the form of ambitious sealing strategies are disproportionate relative to the benefits of ∼ 50 MSEK (5 million EUR) gained in the form of reduced damage risk for the built-up environment. In other words, billions SEK of taxpayers\u27 money are spent on unnecessary expenses to fulfill legal requirements without societal benefits. The novelty of the paper constitutes the coupling of models and combination of established methods for management of hydrogeological risks

Managing hydrogeological risks in underground construction

Groundwater leakage into underground constructions can cause groundwater drawdown and subsequently costly damages to objects impacted by changes in groundwater conditions. In order to reduce the damage risk, risk-reducing measures can be implemented. When implementing measures, society’s limited resources must be carefully managed by balancing the costs and the benefits (e.g. reduced risk) of the measures. Decisions regarding risk-reducing measures must always be taken under uncertainty since the conditions of the hydrogeological system cannot be fully known. In this thesis, a generic framework for management of hydrogeological risks in underground construction is presented (Paper 1). This framework constitutes a structured and transparent approach to the decision process for implementation of risk-reducing measures for groundwater control in underground construction. The framework uses a stochastic and iterative approach for managing the changing level of uncertainty inevitably associated with underground construction. The different modules that constitute the framework are also exemplified by application in a case study (paper 2). The case study focuses on the risk of subsidence damages to the built-up environment (buildings, paved surfaces and pipes) and risk-reducing measures in the form of sealing, artificial recharge and reinforcement measures to houses. The framework and methods used within the framework for the risk analysis and risk evaluation have proven useful as decision support for management of hydrogeological risks. The framework has also proven to be an efficient tool in communication of risks both internally in a project but also between the project owner and stakeholders in the society

A Framework for Risk-Based Cost-Benefit Analysis for Decision Support on Hydrogeological Risks in Underground Construction

Construction below the ground surface and underneath the groundwater table is often associated with groundwater leakage and drawdowns in the surroundings which subsequently can result in a wide variety of risks. To avoid groundwater drawdown-associated damages, risk-reducing measures must often be implemented. Due to the hydrogeological system\u27s inherent variability and our incomplete knowledge of its conditions, the effects of risk-reducing measures cannot be fully known in advance and decisions must inevitably be made under uncertainty. When implementing risk-reducing measures there is always a trade-off between the measures\u27 benefits (reduced risk) and investment costs which needs to be balanced. In this paper, we present a framework for decision support on measures to mitigate hydrogeological risks in underground construction. The framework is developed in accordance with the guidelines from the International Standardization Organization (ISO) and comprises a full risk-management framework with focus on risk analysis and risk evaluation. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) facilitates monetization of consequences and economic evaluation of risk mitigation. The framework includes probabilistic risk estimation of the entire cause-effect chain from groundwater leakage to the consequences of damage where expert elicitation is combined with data-driven and process-based methods, allowing for continuous updating when new knowledge is obtained

Modeling Negotiations Over Water and Ecosystem Management: Uncertainty and Political Viability

We present a modeling approach for generating robust predictions about how changes in institutional, economic, and political considerations will influence the outcome of political negotiations over complex water-ecosystem policy debates. Evaluating the political viability of proposed policies is challenging for researchers in these complex natural and political environments; there is limited information with which to map policies to outcomes to utilities or to represent the political process adequately. Our analysis evaluates the viability of policy options using a probabilistic political viability criterion that explicitly recognizes the existence of modeling uncertainty. The approach is used to conduct a detailed case study of the future of California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Several other possible applications of the approach are briefly discussed

Probabilistic Political Viability: A Methodology for Predictive Political Economy

Currently available political economic tools are not very useful for predicting the outcomes of real-world policy problems. Researchers have limited information on which to assign parameters to the mappings from policies to outcomes to utilities or to represent the political process adequately. We present a method for evaluating the viability of political alternatives in complex settings and apply it to an ongoing California water policy debate. Certain options would be "robustly politically viable" if stakeholder groups trusted that they would be implemented as negotiated. Once we incorporate institutional mistrust into the model, none of the alternatives are robustly politically viable.

Parametric and numerical modeling tools to forecast hydrogeological impacts of a tunnel

The project of interest involving a hydroelectrical diversion tunnel through a crystalline rock massif in the Alps required a detailed hydrogeological study to forecast the magnitude of water inflows within the tunnel and possible effects on groundwater flow The tunnel exhibits a length of 9.5 km and is located on the right side of the Toce River in Crevoladossola (Verbania Province, Piedmont region, northern Italy). Under the geological framework of the Alps, the tunnel is located within the Lower Penninic Frappes in the footwall of the Simplon Normal Fault, and the geological succession is mostly represented by Antigorio gneiss (metagranites) and Baceno metasediments (metacarbonates). Due to the presence of important mineralized springs for commercial mineral water purposes, the above mentioned hydrogeological study focused on both quantity and quality aspects via rainfall data analysis, monitoring of major spring flow rates, monitoring of hydraulic heads and pumping rates of existing wells/boreholes, hydrochemical and isotopic analysis of springs and boreholes and hydraulic tests (Lefranc and Lugeon). The resulting conceptual model indicated dominant low-permeability (aquitard) behavior of the gneissic rock masses, except under conditions of intense fracturing due to tectonization, and aquifer behavior of the metasedimentary rocks, particularly when interested by dissolution. Groundwater flow systems are mainly controlled by gravity. The springs located near the Toce River were characterized by high mineralization and isotopic ratios, indicating long groundwater flow paths. Based on all the data collected and analyzed, two parametric methods were applied: 1) the Dematteis method, slightly adapted to the case study and the available data, which allows assessment of both potential inflows within the tunnel and potential impacts on springs (codified as the drawdown hazard index; DHI); 2) the Cesano method, which only allow assessment of potential inflows within the tunnel, thereby discriminating between major and minor inflows. Contemporarily, a groundwater flow model was implemented with the equivalent porous medium (EPM) approach in MODFLOW-2000. This model was calibrated under steady-state conditions against the available data (groundwater levels inside wells/piezometers and elevation and flow rate of springs). The Dematteis method was demonstrated to be more reliable and suitable for the site than was the Cesano method. This method was validated considering a tunnel through gneissic rock masses, and this approach considered intrinsic parameters of rock masses more notably than morphological and geomorphological factors were considered. The Cesano method relatively overestimated tunnel inflows, considering variations in the topography and overburden above the tunnel. Sensitivity analysis revealed a low sensitivity of these parametric methods to parameter values, except for the rock quality designation (RQD) employed to represent the fracturing degree. The numerical model was calibrated under ante-operam conditions, and sensitivity analysis evaluated the influence of uncertainties in the hydraulic conductivity (K) values of the different hydrogeological units.The hydraulic head distribution after tunnel excavation was forecasted considering three scenarios, namely, a draining tunnel, tunnel as a eater loss source, and tunnel sealed along its aquifer sectors, considering 3 levels of K reduction. Tunnel impermeabilization was very effective, thus lowering the drainage rate and impact on springs. The model quantitatively defined tunnel inflows and the effects on spring flow at the surface in terms of flow rate decrease. The Dematteis method and numerical model were combined to obtain a final risk of impact on the springs. This study likely overestimated the risk because all the values assigned to the parameters were chosen in a conservative way, and the steady-state numerical simulations were also very conservative (the transient state in this hydrogeological setting supposedly lasts 1-3 years). Monitoring of the tunnel and springs during tunnel boring could facilitate the feedback process

Report for the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry

This report reviews the Edinburgh tram project's risk management. Projects frequently overrun their cost and timelines and fall short on intended benefits. Cost, schedule, and benefit risk of projects need to be carefully considered to avoid this. The report describes and evaluates risk assessment and management for the Edinburgh tram. The report was produced as part of the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry. Keywords: risk assessment, risk management, infrastructure, megaprojects, optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation, planning fallacy, behavioral science

A Framework for Risk Analysis of Earth Dams

This purpose of this thesis is to present in a logical and straightforward manner, the types of probabilistic, deterministic and judgment methods which should be part f a risk analysis process for earth dam planning, design, construction and operation. In doing this, an attempt was made to include all of the elements (components of the risk analysis procedure defined herein) which were considered to be important. Descriptions of these elements as well as how they are used to estimate probabilities for the occurrence of each of three failure conditions (i.e. no failure, partial failure, complete failure) are also presented. Explanations are given as to how these failure probabilities can be used in estimating the consequences resulting from the failure of an earth dam. The potential use of the failure probabilities in conjunction with estimated consequences in decision making related to all phases of a dam project as well as land use planning near the dam are discussed. The possibility of performing a care study using the data base of Soldier Creek Dam, a project of the Water and Power Resources Service, is also presented