Online disturbance prediction for enhanced availability in smart grids

A gradual move in the electric power industry towards Smart Grids brings new challenges to the system's efficiency and dependability. With a growing complexity and massive introduction of renewable generation, particularly at the distribution level, the number of faults and, consequently, disturbances (errors and failures) is expected to increase significantly. This threatens to compromise grid's availability as traditional, reactive management approaches may soon become insufficient. On the other hand, with grids' digitalization, real-time status data are becoming available. These data may be used to develop advanced management and control methods for a sustainable, more efficient and more dependable grid. A proactive management approach, based on the use of real-time data for predicting near-future disturbances and acting in their anticipation, has already been identified by the Smart Grid community as one of the main pillars of dependability of the future grid. The work presented in this dissertation focuses on predicting disturbances in Active Distributions Networks (ADNs) that are a part of the Smart Grid that evolves the most. These are distribution networks with high share of (renewable) distributed generation and with systems in place for real-time monitoring and control. Our main goal is to develop a methodology for proactive network management, in a sense of proactive mitigation of disturbances, and to design and implement a method for their prediction. We focus on predicting voltage sags as they are identified as one of the most frequent and severe disturbances in distribution networks. We address Smart Grid dependability in a holistic manner by considering its cyber and physical aspects. As a result, we identify Smart Grid dependability properties and develop a taxonomy of faults that contribute to better understanding of the overall dependability of the future grid. As the process of grid's digitization is still ongoing there is a general problem of a lack of data on the grid's status and especially disturbance-related data. These data are necessary to design an accurate disturbance predictor. To overcome this obstacle we introduce a concept of fault injection to simulation of power systems. We develop a framework to simulate a behavior of distribution networks in the presence of faults, and fluctuating generation and load that, alone or combined, may cause disturbances. With the framework we generate a large set of data that we use to develop and evaluate a voltage-sag disturbance predictor. To quantify how prediction and proactive mitigation of disturbances enhance availability we create an availability model of a proactive management. The model is generic and may be applied to evaluate the effect of proactive management on availability in other types of systems, and adapted for quantifying other types of properties as well. Also, we design a metric and a method for optimizing failure prediction to maximize availability with proactive approach. In our conclusion, the level of availability improvement with proactive approach is comparable to the one when using high-reliability and costly components. Following the results of the case study conducted for a 14-bus ADN, grid's availability may be improved by up to an order of magnitude if disturbances are managed proactively instead of reactively. The main results and contributions may be summarized as follows: (i) Taxonomy of faults in Smart Grid has been developed; (ii) Methodology and methods for proactive management of disturbances have been proposed; (iii) Model to quantify availability with proactive management has been developed; (iv) Simulation and fault-injection framework has been designed and implemented to generate disturbance-related data; (v) In the scope of a case study, a voltage-sag predictor, based on machine- learning classification algorithms, has been designed and the effect of proactive disturbance management on downtime and availability has been quantified

Establishment of a novel predictive reliability assessment strategy for ship machinery

There is no doubt that recent years, maritime industry is moving forward to novel and sophisticated inspection and maintenance practices. Nowadays maintenance is encountered as an operational method, which can be employed both as a profit generating process and a cost reduction budget centre through an enhanced Operation and Maintenance (O&M) strategy. In the first place, a flexible framework to be applicable on complex system level of machinery can be introduced towards ship maintenance scheduling of systems, subsystems and components.;This holistic inspection and maintenance notion should be implemented by integrating different strategies, methodologies, technologies and tools, suitably selected by fulfilling the requirements of the selected ship systems. In this thesis, an innovative maintenance strategy for ship machinery is proposed, namely the Probabilistic Machinery Reliability Assessment (PMRA) strategy focusing towards the reliability and safety enhancement of main systems, subsystems and maintainable units and components.;In this respect, the combination of a data mining method (k-means), the manufacturer safety aspects, the dynamic state modelling (Markov Chains), the probabilistic predictive reliability assessment (Bayesian Belief Networks) and the qualitative decision making (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) is employed encompassing the benefits of qualitative and quantitative reliability assessment. PMRA has been clearly demonstrated in two case studies applied on offshore platform oil and gas and selected ship machinery.;The results are used to identify the most unreliability systems, subsystems and components, while advising suitable practical inspection and maintenance activities. The proposed PMRA strategy is also tested in a flexible sensitivity analysis scheme.There is no doubt that recent years, maritime industry is moving forward to novel and sophisticated inspection and maintenance practices. Nowadays maintenance is encountered as an operational method, which can be employed both as a profit generating process and a cost reduction budget centre through an enhanced Operation and Maintenance (O&M) strategy. In the first place, a flexible framework to be applicable on complex system level of machinery can be introduced towards ship maintenance scheduling of systems, subsystems and components.;This holistic inspection and maintenance notion should be implemented by integrating different strategies, methodologies, technologies and tools, suitably selected by fulfilling the requirements of the selected ship systems. In this thesis, an innovative maintenance strategy for ship machinery is proposed, namely the Probabilistic Machinery Reliability Assessment (PMRA) strategy focusing towards the reliability and safety enhancement of main systems, subsystems and maintainable units and components.;In this respect, the combination of a data mining method (k-means), the manufacturer safety aspects, the dynamic state modelling (Markov Chains), the probabilistic predictive reliability assessment (Bayesian Belief Networks) and the qualitative decision making (Failure Modes and Effects Analysis) is employed encompassing the benefits of qualitative and quantitative reliability assessment. PMRA has been clearly demonstrated in two case studies applied on offshore platform oil and gas and selected ship machinery.;The results are used to identify the most unreliability systems, subsystems and components, while advising suitable practical inspection and maintenance activities. The proposed PMRA strategy is also tested in a flexible sensitivity analysis scheme

Smart routing: towards proactive fault handling of software-defined networks

In recent years, the emerging paradigm of software-defined networking has become a hot and thriving topic in both the industrial and academic sectors. Software-defined networking offers numerous benefits against legacy networking systems by simplifying the process of network management through reducing the cost of network configurations. Currently, data plane fault management is limited to two mechanisms: proactive and reactive. These fault management and recovery techniques are activated only after a failure occurrence and hence packet loss is highly likely to occur. This is due to convergence time where new network paths will need to be allocated in order to forward the affected traffic rather than drop it. Such convergence leads to temporary service disruption and unavailability. Practically, not only the speed of recovery mechanisms affects the convergence, but also the delay caused by the process of failure detection. In this paper, we define a new approach for data plane fault management in software-defined networks where the goal is to eliminate the convergence process altogether rather than accelerate the failure detection and recovery. We propose a new framework, called Smart Routing, which allows the network controller to receive forewarning signs on failures and hence avoid risky paths before the failure incidents occur. The proposed approach aims to decrease service disruption, which in turn increases network service availability. We validate our framework through a set of experiments that demonstrate how the underlying model runs and its impact on improving service availability. We take as example of the applicability of the new framework three types of topologies covering real and simulated networks

Keeping Authorities "Honest or Bust" with Decentralized Witness Cosigning

The secret keys of critical network authorities - such as time, name, certificate, and software update services - represent high-value targets for hackers, criminals, and spy agencies wishing to use these keys secretly to compromise other hosts. To protect authorities and their clients proactively from undetected exploits and misuse, we introduce CoSi, a scalable witness cosigning protocol ensuring that every authoritative statement is validated and publicly logged by a diverse group of witnesses before any client will accept it. A statement S collectively signed by W witnesses assures clients that S has been seen, and not immediately found erroneous, by those W observers. Even if S is compromised in a fashion not readily detectable by the witnesses, CoSi still guarantees S's exposure to public scrutiny, forcing secrecy-minded attackers to risk that the compromise will soon be detected by one of the W witnesses. Because clients can verify collective signatures efficiently without communication, CoSi protects clients' privacy, and offers the first transparency mechanism effective against persistent man-in-the-middle attackers who control a victim's Internet access, the authority's secret key, and several witnesses' secret keys. CoSi builds on existing cryptographic multisignature methods, scaling them to support thousands of witnesses via signature aggregation over efficient communication trees. A working prototype demonstrates CoSi in the context of timestamping and logging authorities, enabling groups of over 8,000 distributed witnesses to cosign authoritative statements in under two seconds.Comment: 20 pages, 7 figure

Integrating IVHM and Asset Design

Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) describes a set of capabilities that enable effective and efficient maintenance and operation of the target vehicle. It accounts for the collection of data, conducting analysis, and supporting the decision-making process for sustainment and operation. The design of IVHM systems endeavours to account for all causes of failure in a disciplined, systems engineering, manner. With industry striving to reduce through-life cost, IVHM is a powerful tool to give forewarning of impending failure and hence control over the outcome. Benefits have been realised from this approach across a number of different sectors but, hindering our ability to realise further benefit from this maturing technology, is the fact that IVHM is still treated as added on to the design of the asset, rather than being a sub-system in its own right, fully integrated with the asset design. The elevation and integration of IVHM in this way will enable architectures to be chosen that accommodate health ready sub-systems from the supply chain and design trade-offs to be made, to name but two major benefits. Barriers to IVHM being integrated with the asset design are examined in this paper. The paper presents progress in overcoming them, and suggests potential solutions for those that remain. It addresses the IVHM system design from a systems engineering perspective and the integration with the asset design will be described within an industrial design process

Integrating IVHM and asset design

Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) describes a set of capabilities that enable effective and efficient maintenance and operation of the target vehicle. It accounts for the collecting of data, conducting analysis, and supporting the decision-making process for sustainment and operation. The design of IVHM systems endeavours to account for all causes of failure in a disciplined, systems engineering, manner. With industry striving to reduce through-life cost, IVHM is a powerful tool to give forewarning of impending failure and hence control over the outcome. Benefits have been realised from this approach across a number of different sectors but, hindering our ability to realise further benefit from this maturing technology, is the fact that IVHM is still treated as added on to the design of the asset, rather than being a sub-system in its own right, fully integrated with the asset design. The elevation and integration of IVHM in this way will enable architectures to be chosen that accommodate health ready sub-systems from the supply chain and design trade-offs to be made, to name but two major benefits. Barriers to IVHM being integrated with the asset design are examined in this paper. The paper presents progress in overcoming them, and suggests potential solutions for those that remain. It addresses the IVHM system design from a systems engineering perspective and the integration with the asset design will be described within an industrial design process