Analysis of WIMAX/BWA Licensing in India: A real option approach

Indian Internet and broadband market has experienced very slow growth and limited penetration till now. The introduction of Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) is expected to aid in increasing the penetration of internet and broadband in India. The report sheds light on the guidelines and procedure used in 4G/BWA spectrum auction and presents comparative analysis of the competing technologies, providing the information about suitability of each technology available. Recently held 4G/ BWA spectrum auction saw enthusiastic participation by the industry and even saw some new entrants in Indian broadband market. Government benefited by Rs, 385bn that it earned as revenue from the auction of the spectrum and projected it as successful auction. However, the question remains if the auctions were efficient and whether they led to creation of value or will it prove to be burden to the telecom operators and will depress their balance sheet for years to come. The report uses both traditional valuation methods such as Discounted Cash Flow as well as Real Option approach to answer such questions. Using DCF analysis, the broadband subscribers have been forecasted to grow from present 13.77mn to 544mn by the end of 2025. The wireless subscribers are forecasted to be 70% of the total broadband subscribers after 5 years of roll out as it will be difficult to replace all wireline subscribers with wireless subscribers in India due to the high cost of wireless broadband and new technology. WiMAX is expected to increase its presence with time and reach 90mn subscribers from meager 0.35mn subscribers by 2025. Using industry wide cost of capital as 12.05%, the Net Present Value has been found Rs 221bn aggregate with an IRR of 17.1%. Using Real option approach, the value of license has been calculated as Rs 437bn which is 13.5% more than the spectrum fees paid by the operators. This mismatch, between the auction value and the correct value that should have been discovered by supply-demand dynamics, can be due to limited participants in BWA spectrum auctions and companies such as TATA and Reliance opting out of the auction process midway as well as uncertainty about acceptance of new technology with Indian subscribers.WiMAX, broadband, 3G spectrum, 4G,broadband wireless access, valuation, licensing, real option

Valuation of spectrum for mobile broadband services: Engineering value versus willingness to pay

Radio spectrum is a vital asset and resource for mobile network operators. With spectrum in the 800 and 900 MHz bands coverage can be provided with fewer base station sites compared to higher frequency bands like 2.1 and 2.6 GHz. With more spectrum, i.e. wider bandwidth, operators can offer higher capacity and data rates. Larger bandwidths means that capacity can be provided with fewer base station sites, i.e. with lower cost. Operators that acquire more spectrum in existing or new bands can re-use existing sites for capacity build out. Engineering value is one way to estimate the marginal value of spectrum. The calculation of engineering value is based on comparison of different network deployment options using different amounts of spectrum. This paper compare estimates of engineering value of spectrum with prices paid at a number of spectrum auctions, with a focus on Sweden. A main finding is that estimated engineering value of spectrum is much higher than prices operators have paid at spectrum auctions during the last couple of years. The analysis also includes a discussion of drivers that determine the willingness to pay for spectrum.Radio spectrum,mobile communications,spectrum valuation,spectrum allocation,mobile broadband,marginal value of spectrum,engineering value

Valuation of 3G spectrum license in India: A real option approach

India is about to enter a new technological phase as far as mobile technology is concerned. After almost a decade of existence, Third Generation (3G) mobile technology will be rolled out in India. The licenses for the same were auctioned in April – May 2010 and 3G licenses were allocated to the winners in September 2010. Nine private telecom operators entered the bidding for the license and eventually seven won the licenses. The bidding was intense and eventually the aggregate fees of the license as received by the government were almost twice the expected amount. In the backdrop of experience of 3G auction winners in UK and Germany who paid huge sums to acquire the 3G licenses and later lost their market capitalization as the markets perceived that the price paid for the license was more than the actual value of the license, analysts in India were concerned if the operators had paid too much for the licenses. In this report aggregate value of the 3G licenses is calculated using both traditional discounted cash flow approach and real options approach. We find that the rollout of 3G services gives an internal rate of return of 14.2%over the life of the license. If we assume an internal rate of return of 15% for the telecom operators then the aggregate license value comes out to be INR 594 Billion which is 12% lower than what the operators have paid to acquire the license. We also found out that the value of the license as calculated from the real options methodology is INR 798 Billion which is 17.8% higher than the aggregate value paid by the operators. Hence we see that DCF valuation suggests that the licenses were overvalued while Real Options methodology suggests that the licenses were undervalued. The report discusses the reasons for differences between real option valuation and DCF valuation of the license, the possible challenges that the 3Goperators might face in the short to long term and what are the key enablers for the growth of3G services if they want to extract the maximum mileage out of the 3G technology. The report recommends that in future while allocating telecom licenses or licenses in sectors where high and irreversible investment is required and there is a scope for the licensees to invest in phases or in modules, the government should consider real options methodology for setting the price of the license., or the base price of the licenses in case the government decides to follow an auction methodology3G spectrum, mobile technology, valuation, real options, DCF

Communications report 2013-14 series: report 2

Are you one of the more than five million adult Australians now using a voice over internet protocol (VoIP) service? The evolution of VoIP in Australia, the second complementary report in the ACMA Communications report 2013–14 series, shows that VoIP services have been a big part of the rapid change in the voice communications market since 2010. The evolution of VoIP can be attributed to a variety of factors, including the increased availability of broadband across Australia, developments in the OTT communications and media market, and the widespread adoption of smartphones and tablets. VoIP is the name for a range of technologies that allow voice communication to be made using internet protocol (IP) technology. Australian consumers have access to two main types of VoIP services: managed VoIP services bought through a service provider over-the-top (OTT) VoIP delivered by an application that is run over the top of another carriage service. Australians are continuing to take advantage of cheaper or free OTT services such as Skype and Viber. The proportion of adults using OTT VoIP services (on mobile phones, tablet devices, or laptop or desktop computers) increased from 15 to 24 per cent in the four years to 2014. However, Australians are less satisfied with their VoIP service than their fixed-line and mobile phone services—77 per cent of consumers are satisfied or very satisfied with their VoIP service compared to 89 per cent for fixed-line phones and 86 per cent for mobile phones. Satisfaction levels increase up to 84 per cent for those with a paid subscription to a VoIP service

Innovation in the Wireless Ecosystem: A Customer-Centric Framework

The Federal Communications Commission’s Notice of Inquiry in GN 09-157 Fostering Innovation and Investment in the Wireless Communications Market is a significant event at an opportune moment. Wireless communications has already radically changed the way not only Americans but people the world over communicate with each other and access and share information, and there appears no end in sight to this fundamental shift in communication markets. Although the wireless communications phenomenon is global, the US has played and will continue to play a major role in the shaping of this market. At the start of a new US Administration and important changes in the FCC, it is most appropriate that this proceeding be launched.

Business models for deployment and operation of femtocell networks; - Are new cooperation strategies needed for mobile operators?

In this paper we discuss different business models for deployment and operation of femtocell networks intended for provisioning of public mobile broad band access services. In these types of business cases the operators use femtocells in order to reduce investments in "more costly" macro networks since the traffic can be "offloaded" to "less costly" femtocell networks. This is in contrast to the many business cases presented in Femtoforum where femtocells mainly are discussed as a solution to improve indoor coverage for voice services in homes and small offices, usually for closed user groups The main question discussed in this paper is if "operators need to consider new forms of cooperation strategies in order to enable large scale deployment of femtocells for public access?" By looking into existing solutions for indoor wireless access services we claim that the answer is both "Yes" and "No". No, since many types of cooperation are already in place for indoor deployment. Yes, because mobile operators need to re-think the femtocell specific business models, from approaches based on singe operator networks to different forms of cooperation involving multi-operator solutions, e.g. roaming and network sharing. --

Mobile Communications Industry Scenarios and Strategic Implications for Network Equipment Vendors

Mobile infrastructure markets have changed dramatically during the past years. The industry is experiencing a shift from traditional large-scale, hardware-driven system roll-outs to software and services -driven business models. Also, the telecommunications and internet worlds are colliding in both mobile infrastructure and services domains requiring established network equipment vendors and mobile operators to transform and adapt to the new business environment. This paper utilizes Schoemaker's scenario planning process to reveal critical uncertain elements shaping the future of the industry. Four possible scenarios representing different value systems between industry's key stakeholders are created. After this, five strategic options with differing risk and cost factors for established network equipment vendors are discussed in order to aid firm's strategic planning process. --

Assessing Competition in U.S. Wireless Markets: Review of the FCC’s Competition Reports

The FCC\u27s 14th and 15th Annual Wireless Competition reports review a wide variety of evidence, both direct (how firms and customers behave) and indirect (industry concentration measures) in making its competitive assessment. The reports are silent on how to interpret this evidence. In contrast, modem antitrust analysis relies far more on direct evidence. In failing to put more weight on the relevant direct market evidence to reach an informed competitive assessment, the 14th and 15th reports invite erroneous conclusions about the state of competition in wireless markets. The authors are concerned that these erroneous conclusions eventually could adversely influence regulatory policy in wireless markets. Before economists came to rely on direct measures of market power, they relied on indirect measures, such as market share in the relevant markets, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index ( HHI ), and market definitions. The 14th and 15th reports downplayed direct evidence of competition-namely, aggressive pricing behavior, robust entry, and continued long-term reductions in price, all of which strongly support a conclusion of effective competition. Instead, the FCC focuses on inferences of market power based on market shares. To test the FCC\u27s presumed relationship between market structure and prices in the wireless industry, the authors analyzed the TNS Telecoms database of cellular telephone bills. The authors found no statistically significant relationship between a household\u27s monthly wireless bill and the HHI of the economic area in which the household resides. Thus, market concentration does not appear to have an impact on what the customer actually pays. This finding, along with the fact that wireless prices have declined over time as industry concentration has increased, undermines the structure-conduct hypothesis that undergirds the FCC\u27s market-share analysis

A National Broadband Plan for Our Future: A Customer-Centric Framework

Congress has recently charged the Federal Communications Commission to establish a National Broadband Plan. This paper argues that a customer-centric plan, which puts the customer in control of decision-making, will yield the best broadband result for the U.S. The Federal government must establish a market infrastructure that encourages competition, requires transparency of both network providers and application providers, and includes vigorous antitrust enforcement. Competition from wireless broadband is present now and will become far more prevalent shortly, on the basis of current and announced investment plans. Regulators must also make available far more licensed spectrum to ensure this competition is realized. Calls for regulation in the form of mandated unbundling and more unlicensed spectrum are regulatory cul-de-sacs with proven track records of failure. Calls for regulatory control of network provider practices (other than transparency), such as network neutrality, are misguided. Such decisions are best left to customers, who can very well decide for themselves which of the broadband providers offer terms that best suit the customer.Technology and Industry

Techno-Economic Analysis of 5G Deployment Scenarios involving Massive MIMO HetNets over mmWave: A Case Study on the US State of Texas

The fifth generation (5G) of mobile services envisages network heterogeneity, cell densification, and high spectral efficiency using Massive MIMO, operating at millimeter-wave frequencies. Accurately assessing the potential of financial returns for such a complex network poses to operators unique challenges including techno-economic analysis leading to the identification of decision variables most sensitive to the profitability parameters. Attempting to demystify their concerns, we evaluate the profitability potential for realistic 5G deployment scenarios over 28 GHz frequency in the State of Texas. Interestingly, we discover that the total cost of ownership for 5G network is about one-third of that for 4G LTE-Advanced (LTE-A) deployment, yielding estimated returns amounting to $482.14 million for the period 2020-2030. The sensitivity analyses predict profitability in 70% of the cases of 5G, against LTE-A. For operators, the crucial levers having the maximum impact on profitability are decisions pertaining to the spectrum acquisition and the pricing of services