Energy price risk management

The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. Demand and supply are balanced on a knife-edge because electric power cannot be economically stored, end user demand is largely weather dependent, and the reliability of the grid is paramount. The possibility of extreme price movements increases the risk of trading in electricity markets. However, a number of standard financial tools cannot be readily applied to pricing and hedging electricity derivatives. In this paper we present arguments why this is the case

Energy price risk management

The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. Demand and supply are balanced on a knife-edge because electric power cannot be economically stored, end user demand is largely weather dependent, and the reliability of the grid is paramount. The possibility of extreme price movements increases the risk of trading in electricity markets. However, a number of standard financial tools cannot be readily applied to pricing and hedging electricity derivatives. In this paper we present arguments why this is the case.Econophysics; Electricity price; Risk management; Mean-reversion;

Regulating Asset Price Risk

There has been a long debate about whether speculators are stabilizing or not. We consider a model where speculators have a stabilizing role in normal times, but may also provoke large risk panics. The very feature that makes arbitrageurs liquidity providers in normal times, namely their tolerance of risk, enables a large increase in asset price risk during a financial panic. We show that a policy that discourages balance sheet risk reduces the magnitude of financial panics, as well as asset price risk in both normal and panic states.Asset Pricing, Risk Management, Leverage.

Regulating Asset Price Risk

There has been a long debate about whether speculators are stabilizing or not. We consider a model where speculators have a stabilizing role in normal times, but may also provoke large risk panics. The very feature that makes arbitrageurs liquidity providers in normal times, namely their tolerance of risk, enables a large increase in asset price risk during a financial panic. We show that a policy that discourages balance sheet risk reduces the magnitude of financial panics, as well as asset price risk in both normal and panic states.asset pricing; risk management; leverage

House Price Volatility and Housing Ownership over the Lifecycle

We develop and test a model on the effects of spatial housing price risk on housing choice. Housing price risk can be substantial but, unlike other risky assets which people can avoid, most people want to eventually own their home thereby creating an insurance demand for housing ownership early in life. With increasing demographic needs over the life cycle, our model predicts that people living in places with higher housing price risk should own their first home at a younger age, should live in larger homes, and should be less likely to refinance. These predictions are shown to hold using comparable panel data from the United States and United Kingdom. (JEL D12, D91

Housing Mobility and Downsizing at Older Ages in Britain and the United States

This paper investigates the effects of housing price risk on housing choices over the life-cycle. Housing price risk can be substantial but, unlike other risky assets which people can avoid, the fact that most people will eventually own their home creates an insurance demand for housing assets early in life. Our contribution is to focus on the importance of home ownership and housing wealth as a hedge against future house price risk for individuals moving up the ladder – people living in places with higher housing price risk should own their first home at a younger age, should live in larger homes, and should be less likely to refinance. These predictions are tested and shown to hold using panel data from the United States and Great Britain.downsizing, migration

Farmers and farmers’ associations in developing countries and their use of modern financial instruments

This paper starts with an overview of the current literature on the cost of price risk exposure to developing country farmers. It then discusses market-based price risk management instruments (such as futures and options) that can be used by farmers, as well as various mechanisms through which farmers' associations can facilitate farmers' access to price risk management tools as well as lower-cost financing (using warehouse receipt finance, repos and other structured financings). The experiences with use of such modern financial tools by farmers in several developing countries (Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Philippines, Uganda) are described. The report concludes with a discussion of the practicalities of farmers' associations starting to use such financial instruments, including the potential of new technologies such as smart cards.farmers structured finance warehouse receipts price risk management

House Price Volatility and the Housing Ladder

This paper investigates the effects of housing price risk on housing choices over the life-cycle. Housing price risk can be substantial but, unlike other risky assets which people can avoid, the fact that most people will eventually own their home creates an insurance demand for housing assets early in life. Our contribution is to focus on the importance of home ownership and housing wealth as a hedge against future house price risk for individuals moving up the ladder – people living in places with higher housing price risk should own their first home at a younger age, should live in larger homes, and should be less likely to refinance. These predictions are tested and shown to hold using panel data from the United States and Great Britain.downsizing, migration

Oil price risk and emerging stock markets

This paper uses an international multi-factor Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) model that allows for both unconditional and conditional risk factors to investigate the relationship between oil price risk and emerging stock market returns. In general we find strong evidence that oil price risk impacts stock price returns in emerging markets. Results for other risk factors like market risk, total risk, skewness, and kurtosis are also presented. These results are useful for individual and institutional investors, managers and policy makers.Emerging markets; market risk; oil price risk