Pedal to the Metal: Accelerating the Transition to Electric Vehicles

This thesis explores barriers to widespread adoption of electric vehicles and proposes possible policy solutions. It analyzes main barriers including awareness, upfront cost, and range anxiety, as well as existing policy solutions, and a detailed case study examining policy differences in high adopting versus low adopting states. Awareness and eduction surrounding electric vehicles and their capabilities, financial incentives and market mechanisms for reducing costs, and charging infrastructure and efficiency improvements are examined. Conclusions were formed through interviews with various experts as a method of data collection. It was found that many existing state and local level policies could be scaled to a national level to facilitate rapid reductions in transportation emissions through electrification of the transportation sector

Modelling the impact of policy incentives on CO2 emissions from passenger light duty vehicles in five major economies with a dynamic model of technological change

Low-emission vehicle technologies are needed to mitigate rising greenhouse gas emissions from passenger light-duty vehicles (PLDVs). Policy incentives send a signal to consumers and car manufacturers to influence purchasing decisions and the adoption of low-emission vehicles. In this thesis, an innovative model formulation is developed to represent consumer group diversity by capturing different vehicle technologies and engine types. This thesis contributes to the existing literature by modelling and quantifying the impact of different policy measures across five countries, the US, the UK, Japan, China and India. I first explore how policy instruments, such as the annual registration tax, EV subsidy, fuel tax, EV mandate and fuel economy regulations, impact the diffusion of various PLDV technologies and CO2 emissions at different levels. Subsequently, by studying the interactions between policy instruments, I uncover the trade-off effect and reinforcement effect between the different policy incentives, and how the interactions between policy incentives influence the effectiveness and efficiency of policy instruments in reducing PLDV CO2 emissions in different countries. This research explores how income changes in different countries impact PLDV choice and the effectiveness of each policy instrument in reducing PLDV emissions. The findings of this research indicate that policy instrument effectiveness varies between countries and specifically depends on the levels of incentive, the design of the policy incentives and the existing markets for low emission vehicles. Financial incentives such as taxes and EV subsidies are more effective in China and the UK. Fuel economy regulation is more effective in the US, where, on average, engine sizes for conventional cars are large. While I find that there is a general trade-off effect between the financial incentives (i.e. the annual registration tax, fuel tax and EV subsidies), there is also a reinforcement effect between the EV mandate programme and all other policy incentives. Overall, I find that the income effect leads to a small increase in cumulative emissions from PLDVs in the UK, the US, Japan and India, due to the diffusion of luxury vehicles at the expense of small vehicles. In the case of China, I find that cumulative emissions from PLDVs decrease as income increases due to EV diffusion

The deployment of BEV and FCEV in 2015

In Europe the transport sector contributes about 25% of total GHG emissions, 75% of which come from road transport. Contrarily to industrial emissions road emissions have increased over the period 1990-2015 in OECD countries: California (+26%), Germany (0%), France (+12%), Japan (+2%), Denmark (+30%). The number of registered vehicles on road in these countries amounts respectively to: California (33 million), Germany (61.5 million), France (38 million), Japan (77 million), Denmark (4 million). Even if these numbers are not expected to grow in the future this calls for major programs to reduce the corresponding GHG emissions in order to achieve the global GHG targets for 2050. The benefits from these programs will spread out to non OECD countries in which road emissions are bound to increase. Programs to promote zero emissions vehicles (ZEV) effectively started in the 2000’s through public private partnerships involving government agencies, manufacturers, utilities and fuel companies. These partnerships provided subsidies for R&D, pilot programs and infrastructure. Moreover, technical norms for emissions, global requirements for the portfolio of sales for manufacturers, rebates on the purchasing price for customers as well as various perks (driving bus lanes, free parking, etc.) are now in place. These multiple policy instruments constitute powerful incentives to orient the strategies of manufacturers and to stimulate the demand for ZEV. The carbon tax on the distribution of fossil fuels, whenever it exists, remains low and, at this stage, cannot be considered as an important driving force. The cases studies reveal important differences for the deployment of battery electric vehicle (BEV) versus fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV). BEV is leading the game with a cheaper infrastructure investment cost and a lower cost for vehicle. The relatively low autonomy makes BEV mostly suited for urban use, which is a large segment of the road market. The current level of BEV vehicles on roads starts to be significant with California (70,000), Germany (25,000), France (31,000), Japan (608,000) Denmark (3,000), but they remain very low relative to the targets for 2020: California (1.5 million), Germany (1 million), France (2 million), Japan (0.8-1.1 million for ZEV new registrations), Denmark (0.25 million). The developments and efficiency gains in battery technology along with subsidies for battery charging public stations are expected to facilitate the achievement of the growth. The relative rates of equipment (number of publicly available stations / number of BEV) provide indirect evidence on the effort made in the different countries: California (3%), Germany (12%), France (28%), Japan (11%), and Denmark (61%). In some countries public procurement plays a significant role. In France Autolib (publicly available cars in towns) represents a large share of the overall BEV deployment (12%), and the government recently announced a 50% target for low emissions in all public vehicles new equipment. FCEV is still in an early deployment stage due to a higher infrastructure investment cost and a higher cost for vehicle. The relatively high autonomy combined with speed refueling make FCEV mostly suited for long distance and interurban usage. At present there are only a very limited numbers of HRS deployed: California (28), Germany (15), France (6), Japan (31), Japan (7), Denmark (7), and only a few units of H2 vehicles on road: California (300), Germany (125), France (60), Japan (7), Denmark (21). However, a detailed analysis of the current road maps suggests that FCEV has a large potential. Targets for the 2025-2030 horizons are significant in particular in Germany (4% in 2030), Denmark (4.5% in 2025) and Japan (15-20% for ZEV new registrations in 2020). The California ARB has recently redefined its program (subsidies and mandates) to provide higher incentives for FCEV. France appears to focus on specialized regional submarkets to promote FCEV (such as the use of H2 range extending light utility vehicles). The financing of the H2 infrastructure appears as a bottleneck for FCEV deployment. Roadmaps address this issue through progressive geographical expansion (clusters) and a high level of public subsidies hydrogen refueling station (HRS) in particular in all countries except France. At this stage of BEV and FCEV do not appear as direct competitors; they address distinct market segments. Unexpected delays in the development of infrastructure in FCEV, possible breakthroughs in battery technology, and the promotion of national champions may change the nature of this competition, making it more intense in the future

Examining the effects of policy interventions on increasing electric vehicle adoption in California

Any significant effort to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gasses must address the growing concern of the transportation sector’s inability to meaningfully reduce its emissions contribution. A major shift in the primary fuel used in the sector away from petroleum-based fuel to electricity is one potential way the sector can lower its emissions and transition into a sustainable future. However, a number of barriers face the electric vehicle market, including competing against an already mature vehicle market, battling consumer preferences, and overcoming technical challenges. This paper examines several policy proposals to combat these barriers and examines the impact similar policies could have on the electric vehicle market in California. California is chosen because of its historical leadership in environmental causes, and for exhibiting cultural values that are in line with increasing the adoption of electric vehicles. It is found that policies that affect the purchase price of the vehicle, and improve access to charging infrastructure are most effective in increasing the number of sales, but that policies aimed at signaling a longstanding commitment to the success of the EV market and reduce GHG emissions are a greater indicator of whether there is sustained growth in the EV market. Recommendations are given based on California’s current policy package to strengthen the current EV market, and transition into a self-sustaining market without the need for government intervention

The Future of Transportation Alternative Fuel Vehicle Policies In China and United States

The number of passenger cars in use worldwide has been steadily increasing. This has led to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and other air pollutants, and new efforts to develop alternative fuel vehicles to mitigate reliance on petroleum. Alternative fuel vehicles include a wide range of technologies powered by energy sources other than gasoline or diesel fuel. They use electricity, biofuels, and other alternative energy sources. Governments around the world are working to encourage the development and adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, including production mandates, tax subsidies, and other incentives. This paper discusses and compares the programs and policies to en- courage alternative fuel vehicles adoption in the U.S. and China, and finds more simi- larities than differences in their approaches

The Allure of Technology: How France and California Promoted Electric Vehicles to Reduce Urban Air Pollution

All advanced industrialized societies face the problem of air pollution produced by motor vehicles. In spite of striking improvements in internal combustion engine technology, air pollution in most urban areas is still measured at levels determined to be harmful to human health. Throughout the 1990s and beyond, California and France both chose to improve air quality by means of technological innovation, adopting legislation that promoted clean vehicles, prominently among them, electric vehicles (EVs). In California, policymakers chose a technology-forcing approach, setting ambitious goals (e.g., zero emission vehicles), establishing strict deadlines and issuing penalties for non-compliance. The policy process in California called for substantial participation from the public, the media, the academic community and the interest groups affected by the regulation. The automobile and oil industries bitterly contested the regulation, in public and in the courts. In contrast, in France the policy process was non-adversarial, with minimal public participation and negligible debate in academic circles. We argue that California's stringent regulation spurred the development of innovative hybrid and fuel cell vehicles more effectively than the French approach. However, in spite of the differences, both California and France have been unable to put a substantial number of EVs on the road. Our comparison offers some broad lessons about how policy developments within a culture influence both the development of technology and the impact of humans on the environment.Environmental policy, Electric vehicles, Air pollution, Technology policy, Sustainable transport

Will current electric vehicle policy lead to cost-effective electrification of passenger car transport?

Encouraged by the falling cost of batteries, electric vehicle (EV) policy today focuses on expediting electrification, paying comparatively little attention to the cost of the particular type of EVs and charging infrastructure deployed. This paper argues that, due to its strong influence on EV innovation paths, EV policy could be better designed if it paid more attention to cost and technology development risk. In particular, using a model that estimates the incremental cost of different EV and infrastructure mixes over the whole passenger car fleet, we find that EV policy with a strong bias towards long-range battery electric vehicles (BEVs) risks leading to higher costs of electrification in the medium term, possibly exceeding the ability of governments to sustain the necessary incentives until battery cost drops sufficiently. We also find that promoting a balanced mix of BEVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) may set the electrification of passenger cars on a lower risk, lower cost path. Examining EV policy in the UK and in California, we find that it is generally not incompatible with achieving balanced mixes of BEVs and PHEVs. However some fine tuning would allow to better balance medium term risks and long term goals