The Global Risks Report 2016, 11th Edition

Now in its 11th edition, The Global Risks Report 2016 draws attention to ways that global risks could evolve and interact in the next decade. The year 2016 marks a forceful departure from past findings, as the risks about which the Report has been warning over the past decade are starting to manifest themselves in new, sometimes unexpected ways and harm people, institutions and economies. Warming climate is likely to raise this year's temperature to 1° Celsius above the pre-industrial era, 60 million people, equivalent to the world's 24th largest country and largest number in recent history, are forcibly displaced, and crimes in cyberspace cost the global economy an estimated US$445 billion, higher than many economies' national incomes. In this context, the Reportcalls for action to build resilience – the "resilience imperative" – and identifies practical examples of how it could be done.The Report also steps back and explores how emerging global risks and major trends, such as climate change, the rise of cyber dependence and income and wealth disparity are impacting already-strained societies by highlighting three clusters of risks as Risks in Focus. As resilience building is helped by the ability to analyse global risks from the perspective of specific stakeholders, the Report also analyses the significance of global risks to the business community at a regional and country-level

Nuclear Deterrence and the Space and Cyber domains

NPS NRP Technical ReportThe space and cyber domains are becoming increasingly intertwined in both conventional and theoretical nuclear conflicts. Deterrence strategies involving aggression, escalation, and deterrence must evolve with ever changing reality of the world situation. The space and cyber domains are unique from other domains since actions taken in these domains may be unattributable to a state actor and damage that occurs may be non-kinetic yet severe at the same time. In the past the U.S. has clearly defined nuclear redlines and communicated these to potential adversaries to help them understand actions which could be interpreted by the U.S. as precursor to nuclear aggression. Clearly communicated nuclear redlines seem to have been effective strategy at deterring the actions defined by the redline. In many cases potential adversaries have protested some of the redlines, but regardless of their protest in practically every case they still abided by them. It is vitally important that nuclear redlines evolve as the world situation and technology progress. This is not a simple task. Many space and cyber assets are dual tasked with conventional and nuclear missions. This project will help define which events in these domains is significant enough to warrant a kinetic response from the U.S., and which may justified crossing the nuclear threshold. With this understanding, recommendations will be made to improve or modify U.S. nuclear deterrence strategy if necessary. Keywords: Nuclear Deterrence, Strategic Deterrence, Space domain, cyber domain, crossdomainN3/N5 - Plans & StrategyThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Fundamental Concepts of Cyber Resilience: Introduction and Overview

Given the rapid evolution of threats to cyber systems, new management approaches are needed that address risk across all interdependent domains (i.e., physical, information, cognitive, and social) of cyber systems. Further, the traditional approach of hardening of cyber systems against identified threats has proven to be impossible. Therefore, in the same way that biological systems develop immunity as a way to respond to infections and other attacks, so too must cyber systems adapt to ever-changing threats that continue to attack vital system functions, and to bounce back from the effects of the attacks. Here, we explain the basic concepts of resilience in the context of systems, discuss related properties, and make business case of cyber resilience. We also offer a brief summary of ways to assess cyber resilience of a system, and approaches to improving cyber resilience.Comment: This is a preprint version of a chapter that appears in the book "Cyber Resilience of Systems and Networks," Springer 201

The Future of Cybercrime: AI and Emerging Technologies Are Creating a Cybercrime Tsunami

This paper reviews the impact of AI and emerging technologies on the future of cybercrime and the necessary strategies to combat it effectively. Society faces a pressing challenge as cybercrime proliferates through AI and emerging technologies. At the same time, law enforcement and regulators struggle to keep it up. Our primary challenge is raising awareness as cybercrime operates within a distinct criminal ecosystem. We explore the hijacking of emerging technologies by criminals (CrimeTech) and their use in illicit activities, along with the tools and processes (InfoSec) to protect against future cybercrime. We also explore the role of AI and emerging technologies (DeepTech) in supporting law enforcement, regulation, and legal services (LawTech)

The 2016 Philip C. Jessup International Law Moot Court Competition

The State of Amestonia and the Federal Republic of Riesland appear before the International Court of Justice in accordance with Article 40(1) of its Statute through submission of a special agreement for resolution of all the differences between them concerning the Frost Files

The need of adding a safety barrier to water cooled nuclear reactors

The present paper deals with the proposal of an additional safety barrier for the class of large (1000 MWe or more) Light Water Reactors (LWR) now in operation, in construction, or under design. Emphasis is given to the motivations or the needs for the barrier. Two main parts of the paper can be distinguished. The following topics are discussed in the former part: (a) the weakness of the barrier constituted by the current design of nuclear fuel; (b) the continuously increasing complexity of the system, with main reference to the Instrumentation and Control (I&C); (c) the role that the Large Break Loss of Coolant Accident (LBLOCA) had for arriving at the current layout of the Reactor Coolant System (RCS). Furthermore avoiding the severe accidents in 1979, 1987 and 2011, is at the basis of the proposal. In the latter part, the elements of the proposed technological safety barrier are discussed: the As-Low-As-Reasonably-Achievable (ALARA) principle, the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) approach, the Extended Safety Margin Detection (E-SMD) hardware, the Emergency Rescue Team (ERT) strategy (or a virtual entity for the reactor) and the Independent Assessment (IA) concept. The additional safety barrier, although not demonstrated in the paper, is expected to reduce for a factor in the range 10-1000 the probability of core melt and to have a cost in the order of 1% the cost of a nuclear reactor unit

Global Risks 2014, Ninth Edition.

The Global Risks 2014 report highlights how global risks are not only interconnected but also have systemic impacts. To manage global risks effectively and build resilience to their impacts, better efforts are needed to understand, measure and foresee the evolution of interdependencies between risks, supplementing traditional risk-management tools with new concepts designed for uncertain environments. If global risks are not effectively addressed, their social, economic and political fallouts could be far-reaching, as exemplified by the continuing impacts of the financial crisis of 2007-2008

Risk Management for the Future

A large part of academic literature, business literature as well as practices in real life are resting on the assumption that uncertainty and risk does not exist. We all know that this is not true, yet, a whole variety of methods, tools and practices are not attuned to the fact that the future is uncertain and that risks are all around us. However, despite risk management entering the agenda some decades ago, it has introduced risks on its own as illustrated by the financial crisis. Here is a book that goes beyond risk management as it is today and tries to discuss what needs to be improved further. The book also offers some cases

The technological challenge for current generation nuclear reactors

The present paper deals with the proposal of an additional safety barrier for the class of large (1000 MWe or more) Light Water Reactors (LWR) now in operation, in construction, or under design. Emphasis is given to the motivations or the needs for the barrier. Two main parts of the paper can be distinguished. The following topics are discussed in the former part (section 2): (a) the weakness of the barrier constituted by the current design of nuclear fuel; (b) the continuously increasing complexity of the system, with main reference to the Instrumentation and Control (I&C); (c) the role that the Large Break Loss of Coolant Accident (LBLOCA) had for arriving at the current layout of the Reactor Coolant System (RCS). Furthermore avoiding the severe accidents in 1979, 1987 and 2011, is at the basis of the proposal. In the latter part (sections 3 and 4), the elements of the proposed technological safety barrier are discussed: the As-Low-As-Reasonably-Achievable (ALARA) principle, the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) approach, the Extended Safety Margin Detection (E-SMD) hardware, the Emergency Rescue Team (ERT) strategy (or a virtual entity for the reactor) and the Independent Assessment (IA) concept. The additional safety barrier, although not demonstrated in the paper, is expected to reduce for a factor in the range 10–1000 the probability of core melt and to have a cost in the order of 1% the cost of a nuclear reactor unit

International Health Security: A Summative Assessment by ACAIM Consensus Group

International health security (IHS) encompasses any natural or anthropogenic occurrence that can threaten the safety of human health and well-being. The American College of Academic International Medicine IHS Consensus Group (ACAIM-CG) developed a summative assessment highlighting the main issues that can impact IHS including emerging infectious diseases; chronic health conditions; bioterrorism; planetary changes (volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, wildfires, and climate change); nuclear incidents; information and cyber health; industrialization; globalization; pharmaceutical production; and communication platforms (social media). These concerns can directly and indirectly impact IHS both in the long and short term. When considering IHS, we aim to emphasize the utility of applying a predefined framework to effectively approach health security threats. This framework comprises of prevention, detection, assessment, reporting, response, addressing needs, and the perpetual repetition of the above cycle (inclusive of appropriate mitigation measures). It is hoped that this collective work will provide a foundation for further research within the redefined, expanded scope of IHS