Parametric and semi-parametric modelling of vacation expenditures

Consumer Choice;Recreation

Bayesian Analysis of Hazard Regression Models under Order Restrictions on Covariate Effects and Ageing

We propose Bayesian inference in hazard regression models where the baseline hazard is unknown, covariate effects are possibly age-varying (non-proportional), and there is multiplicative frailty with arbitrary distribution. Our framework incorporates a wide variety of order restrictions on covariate dependence and duration dependence (ageing). We propose estimation and evaluation of age-varying covariate effects when covariate dependence is monotone rather than proportional. In particular, we consider situations where the lifetime conditional on a higher value of the covariate ages faster or slower than that conditional on a lower value; this kind of situation is common in applications. In addition, there may be restrictions on the nature of ageing. For example, relevant theory may suggest that the baseline hazard function decreases with age. The proposed framework enables evaluation of order restrictions in the nature of both covariate and duration dependence as well as estimation of hazard regression models under such restrictions. The usefulness of the proposed Bayesian model and inference methods are illustrated with an application to corporate bankruptcies in the UK

A stochastic algorithm for probabilistic independent component analysis

The decomposition of a sample of images on a relevant subspace is a recurrent problem in many different fields from Computer Vision to medical image analysis. We propose in this paper a new learning principle and implementation of the generative decomposition model generally known as noisy ICA (for independent component analysis) based on the SAEM algorithm, which is a versatile stochastic approximation of the standard EM algorithm. We demonstrate the applicability of the method on a large range of decomposition models and illustrate the developments with experimental results on various data sets.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS499 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Bayesian Analysis of Hazard Regression Models under Order Restrictions on Covariate Effects and Ageing

We propose Bayesian inference in hazard regression models where the baseline hazard is unknown, covariate effects are possibly age-varying (non-proportional), and there is multiplicative frailty with arbitrary distribution. Our framework incorporates a wide variety of order restrictions on covariate dependence and duration dependence (ageing). We propose estimation and evaluation of age-varying covariate effects when covariate dependence is monotone rather than proportional. In particular, we consider situations where the lifetime conditional on a higher value of the covariate ages faster or slower than that conditional on a lower value; this kind of situation is common in applications. In addition, there may be restrictions on the nature of ageing. For example, relevant theory may suggest that the baseline hazard function decreases with age. The proposed framework enables evaluation of order restrictions in the nature of both covariate and duration dependence as well as estimation of hazard regression models under such restrictions. The usefulness of the proposed Bayesian model and inference methods are illustrated with an application to corporate bankruptcies in the UK.Bayesian nonparametrics; Nonproportional hazards; Frailty; Age-varying covariate e¤ects; Ageing

Commercialization of Patents and External Financing during the R&D-Phase

Using a unique database on individual Swedish patents, a survival model estimates how different factors influence the time it takes until commercialization starts. To the best of my knowledge, such an analysis has not been undertaken before. For external financing of patent projects and small technology-based firms, Sweden has during long time relied on government support rather than private venture capital firms. The empirical results show that the larger share of the patent-owners’ costs during the R&D-phase that are covered by government financial support, the longer time it takes until the patents are commercialized. It seems like the government financing creates a pool of patents with bad perspectives of commercialization. The reasons to the bad performance are: 1) the design of the government loans, where the patent owner can escape from paying back the loan if the project failures; and 2) the competence and incentives of the government institutions, which are not profit maximizing. A policy implication is therefore that the government should either change the conditions of the loans or, preferably, stop acting as a venture capital firm. The government should instead facilitate private solutions and the growth of private venture capital firms.Patents; R&D; Commercialization; External Financing; Survival Models