A Comparative Study on Neural Network Based Soccer Result Prediction

7th International Conference on Intelligent Systems Design and Applications, ISDA'07; Rio de Janeiro; Brazil; 22 October 2007 through 24 October 2007This study mainly remarks the efficiency of black-box modeling capacity of neural networks in the case of forecasting soccer match results, and opens up several debates on the nature of prediction and selection of input parameters. The selection of input parameters is a serious problem in soccer match prediction systems based on neural networks or statistical methods. Several input vector suggestions are implemented in literature which is mostly based on direct data from weekly charts. Here in this paper, two different input vector parameters have been tested via learning vector quantization networks in order to emphasize the importance of input parameter selection. The input vector parameters introduced in this study are plain and also meaningful when compared to other studies. The results of different approaches presented in this study are compared to each other, and also compared with the results of other neural network approaches and statistical methods in order to give an idea about the successful prediction performance. The paper is concluded with discussions about the nature of soccer match forecasting concept that may draw the interests of researchers willing to work in this area

Sports attendance: A survey of the Literature 1973-2007

Introduction – 1. Theoretical aspects – 2. Demand definition, data andempirical model – 3. Determinants of attendance (I): Economical aspects – 4.Determinants of attendance (II): Expected quality – 5. Determinants of attendance(III): Uncertainty of outcome – 6. Determinants of attendance (IV): Opportunity cost and other factors – Conclusions – Abstract In this paper, we show a review of the empirical analysis literature about the factors that explain attendance to the stadiums on different sports, mainly in the case of professional sports. Apart from the traditional economic determinants of demand (attendance), the sports events in which the performers have more quality and in those which exists uncertainty of outcome of the match or the championship, have a larger number of spectators. On the other hand, these are not the only factors that explain attendance. Variables that capture the opportunity cost of going to the stadium and other determinants, like unobservable factors associated to the contender teams, also have relevance at the time of analyzing this side of the demand related to professional teams of sports eventsAttendance, elasticity, quality, uncertainty of outcome

Eye quietness and quiet eye in expert and novice golf performance: an electrooculographic analysis

Quiet eye (QE) is the final ocular fixation on the target of an action (e.g., the ball in golf putting). Camerabased eye-tracking studies have consistently found longer QE durations in experts than novices; however, mechanisms underlying QE are not known. To offer a new perspective we examined the feasibility of measuring the QE using electrooculography (EOG) and developed an index to assess ocular activity across time: eye quietness (EQ). Ten expert and ten novice golfers putted 60 balls to a 2.4 m distant hole. Horizontal EOG (2ms resolution) was recorded from two electrodes placed on the outer sides of the eyes. QE duration was measured using a EOG voltage threshold and comprised the sum of the pre-movement and post-movement initiation components. EQ was computed as the standard deviation of the EOG in 0.5 s bins from –4 to +2 s, relative to backswing initiation: lower values indicate less movement of the eyes, hence greater quietness. Finally, we measured club-ball address and swing durations. T-tests showed that total QE did not differ between groups (p = .31); however, experts had marginally shorter pre-movement QE (p = .08) and longer post-movement QE (p < .001) than novices. A group × time ANOVA revealed that experts had less EQ before backswing initiation and greater EQ after backswing initiation (p = .002). QE durations were inversely correlated with EQ from –1.5 to 1 s (rs = –.48 - –.90, ps = .03 - .001). Experts had longer swing durations than novices (p = .01) and, importantly, swing durations correlated positively with post-movement QE (r = .52, p = .02) and negatively with EQ from 0.5 to 1s (r = –.63, p = .003). This study demonstrates the feasibility of measuring ocular activity using EOG and validates EQ as an index of ocular activity. Its findings challenge the dominant perspective on QE and provide new evidence that expert-novice differences in ocular activity may reflect differences in the kinematics of how experts and novices execute skills

An exploration of the motivationally-relevant behaviours of coaches, parents and peers across the athletic career span

This thesis aimed to develop an understanding of the social and environmental influences on athlete motivation, and the way these change across the athlete career span. Study 1 set out to explore the social and environmental influences of coaches, parents and peers on the motivation of young athletes (under 12 years old), at the initiation/sampling stage of their careers. Forty participants (7-11 years of age) from a variety of sports were interviewed in focus groups, using a semi-structured format to investigate the roles played by coaches, parents, and peers in influencing athlete motivation. An inductive content analysis was conducted to determine which behaviours among these social agents influenced key motivational outcomes. The young athletes described motivational influences which showed consistencies with existing models of motivation, but which also expanded upon these models in terms of both the specificity of behaviours identified, and also the comprehensive nature of the findings. The influences of coaches related most strongly to the manner in which they perform their roles of instruction and assessment, whereas parents influences were most salient in terms of the way they support the child s participation and learning. Both parents and coaches exerted influences through their leadership styles, affective responses and pre-performance behaviours. Peers influenced participants motivation through competitive behaviours, collaborative behaviours, evaluative communications and through their social relationships. This study provides an insight into the socioenvironmental influences on motivation experienced by young athletes, as well as helping to delineate the different roles of social agents in influencing their motivation at this early stage of development. Study 2 qualitatively examined the motivationally relevant behaviours of key social agents in athletes at the specialising career stage. Seventy-nine participants (9-18 years old) from 26 sports participated in semi-structured focus-groups investigating how coaches, parents, and peers may influence motivation. Using a critical-realist perspective, an inductive content-analysis indicated that specialising athletes perceived a multitude of motivationally-relevant social cues. Coaches and parents influences were related to their specific roles: instruction/assessment for coaches, support-and-facilitation for parents. Peers influenced motivation through competitive behaviours, collaborative behaviours, evaluative communications and through their social relationships. The results were consistent with Study 1 in terms of returning an analysis based around the different roles performed by social agents in relation to the ways that athlete motivation can be influenced. Study 3 examined the socio-environmental influences of coaches, parents and peers on the motivation of elite athletes. Twenty-nine elite sport participants (15-29 years old) took part in semi-structured focus groups or interviews investigating how coaches, parents, and peers influenced their motivation. An inductive content analysis was performed using a critical realist approach. Coaches and peers were reported to be focal influences, whilst the role of parents appeared to be decreased relative to other career-stages; being limited to emotional and moral support. Themes of feedback/evaluation, and pre-performance motivating behaviours were common to all social agents, whilst the coach-athlete and peer-athlete relationships appeared to be important in mediating and directly influencing motivation. The influences of social agents related to their specific roles: instruction/leadership for coaches; whilst peer-influences revolved around collaborative and competitive behaviours and emotional support. The discussion chapter took the form of a meta-interpretive synthesis of research findings concerning social and environmental influences on athlete motivation across the career-span. From a total of 124 papers that qualified for initial consideration 45 contributed to the final analysis. This chapter presents models of motivational processes that are intended to contribute new ideas and stimulate thinking in the area. The final analysis proposes a horizontal structure relating to athletic career developments, and a vertical structure detailing general dimensions of the overall motivationally relevant social environment. From this, the relative influences of coaches, parents and peers were ideographically assessed, suggesting that the influence of peers grows over the athletic career, whilst the relative influence of parents decreases. Finally, a meteorological model is presented, with a view to facilitating the joint consideration of numerous motivationally relevant variables, reflecting the proposed complex interactivity and interdependence identified throughout this thesis. In this chapter, the term motivational atmosphere is proposed in order to represent the extremely broad, complex and interactive nature of the socio-environmental influences on athlete motivation. The thesis concludes with the consideration of the theoretical and applied implications of the studies conducted

An exploration of the motivationally-relevant behaviours of coaches, parents and peers across the athletic career span.

This thesis aimed to develop an understanding of the social and environmental influences on athlete motivation, and the way these change across the athlete career span. Study 1 set out to explore the social and environmental influences of coaches, parents and peers on the motivation of young athletes (under 12 years old), at the initiation/sampling stage of their careers. Forty participants (7-11 years of age) from a variety of sports were interviewed in focus groups, using a semi-structured format to investigate the roles played by coaches, parents, and peers in influencing athlete motivation. An inductive content analysis was conducted to determine which behaviours among these social agents influenced key motivational outcomes. The young athletes described motivational influences which showed consistencies with existing models of motivation, but which also expanded upon these models in terms of both the specificity of behaviours identified, and also the comprehensive nature of the findings. The influences of coaches related most strongly to the manner in which they perform their roles of instruction and assessment, whereas parents’ influences were most salient in terms of the way they support the child’s participation and learning. Both parents and coaches exerted influences through their leadership styles, affective responses and pre-performance behaviours. Peers influenced participants’ motivation through competitive behaviours, collaborative behaviours, evaluative communications and through their social relationships. This study provides an insight into the socio-environmental influences on motivation experienced by young athletes, as well as helping to delineate the different roles of social agents in influencing their motivation at this early stage of development. Study 2 qualitatively examined the motivationally relevant behaviours of key social agents in athletes at the specialising career stage. Seventy-nine participants (9-18 years old) from 26 sports participated in semi-structured focus-groups investigating how coaches, parents, and peers may influence motivation. Using a critical-realist perspective, an inductive content-analysis indicated that specialising athletes perceived a multitude of motivationally-relevant social cues. Coaches’ and parents’ influences were related to their specific roles: instruction/assessment for coaches, support-and-facilitation for parents. Peers influenced motivation through competitive behaviours, collaborative behaviours, evaluative communications and through their social relationships. The results were consistent with Study 1 in terms of returning an analysis based around the different roles performed by social agents in relation to the ways that athlete motivation can be influenced. Study 3 examined the socio-environmental influences of coaches, parents and peers on the motivation of elite athletes. Twenty-nine elite sport participants (15-29 years old) took part in semi-structured focus groups or interviews investigating how coaches, parents, and peers influenced their motivation. An inductive content analysis was performed using a critical realist approach. Coaches and peers were reported to be focal influences, whilst the role of parents appeared to be decreased relative to other career-stages; being limited to emotional and moral support. Themes of feedback/evaluation, and pre-performance motivating behaviours were common to all social agents, whilst the coach-athlete and peer-athlete relationships appeared to be important in mediating and directly influencing motivation. The influences of social agents related to their specific roles: instruction/leadership for coaches; whilst peer-influences revolved around collaborative and competitive behaviours and emotional support. The discussion chapter took the form of a meta-interpretive synthesis of research findings concerning social and environmental influences on athlete motivation across the career-span. From a total of 124 papers that qualified for initial consideration 45 contributed to the final analysis. This chapter presents models of motivational processes that are intended to contribute new ideas and stimulate thinking in the area. The final analysis proposes a horizontal structure relating to athletic career developments, and a vertical structure detailing general dimensions of the overall motivationally relevant social environment. From this, the relative influences of coaches, parents and peers were ideographically assessed, suggesting that the influence of peers grows over the athletic career, whilst the relative influence of parents decreases. Finally, a meteorological model is presented, with a view to facilitating the joint consideration of numerous motivationally relevant variables, reflecting the proposed complex interactivity and interdependence identified throughout this thesis. In this chapter, the term “motivational atmosphere” is proposed in order to represent the extremely broad, complex and interactive nature of the socio-environmental influences on athlete motivation. The thesis concludes with the consideration of the theoretical and applied implications of the studies conducted

Risk in Sports and Challenges for Sports Organizations

Success, injuries, future career opportunities of athletes, and the societal gains of participating in sports and organizing (mega) sports events are all related to individual risk-taking behavior. Although the sports economics and management literature has broadly addressed these issues, it is surprising that less attention has been paid to the implications of risk-taking on the organization of sports in general and, more particularly, on the design and behavior of sports organization members

Risk in Sports and Challenges for Sports Organizations

Success, injuries, future career opportunities of athletes, and the societal gains of participating in sports and organizing (mega) sports events are all related to individual risk-taking behavior. Although the sports economics and management literature has broadly addressed these issues, it is surprising that less attention has been paid to the implications of risk-taking on the organization of sports in general and, more particularly, on the design and behavior of sports organization members

Injuries, risk factors, consequences and injury perceptions in adolescent elite athletes

Background: Injury and health data are not fully explored in adolescent elite athletes, yet essential for understanding injury risk, consequences of injuries and developing injury preventive programs. Aims: To explore injury patterns, training and health variables, such as nutritional behaviour, self-esteem, self-perceived stress, sleeping habits, as well as identify risk factors for sustaining a sport injury among adolescent elite athletes. Further, to explore consequences of sport injuries and athletes’ perceptions and experience of being injured. Methods: A valid and reliable questionnaire about training exposure, injury and illness was repeatedly e-mailed over one or two years to 680 adolescent elite athletes from 16 different sports at 24 National Sports High Schools. At the start of each term, athletes were sent a background questionnaire about competence-based self-esteem, nutrition, self-perceived stress and sleep. Twenty athletes from the same cohort were interviewed in focus group discussion format about their injury experience and perceptions. Results: The average injury prevalence and substantial injury prevalence were in year one 31% and 15% and in year two 39% and 18%, respectively. During year two, 30% of the athletes were injured more than half of all reporting times and 10% reported substantial injury more than half of all reporting times. The recommended intake of fruits, vegetables, and fish was not met for 20%, 39%, and 43% of the adolescent elite athletes, respectively. The recommended amount of sleep during weekdays was not obtained by 19%. Increasing the training load, training intensity, and at the same time decreasing the sleep volume resulted in a higher risk for injury compared to no change in these variables. An athlete having the previously mentioned risk factors, with an average competence-based self-esteem score, had more than a threefold increased risk for injury, compared to an athlete with a low perceived competence-based self-esteem and no change in sleep or training volume. The adolescent elite athletes who were interviewed experienced a loss of identity and described a sense of feeling lonely and excluded from regular sports involvements while dealing with the injury. Discrepancies in rehabilitation expectations between athletes and practitioners were expressed, where some athletes described that their rehabilitation was not adjusted to their needs and requested to receive an injury diagnosis in an early stage following injury. Conclusion: A considerable number of adolescent elite athletes are injured regularly, resulting in serious consequences on sports participation and performance. Sports involvement seems to constitute an important social component for an adolescent elite athlete, and being injured may lead to a loss of identity and experience of loneliness, self-blame or self-criticism. Medical teams, accessible to all athletes at each National Sports High School, are warranted to reduce the unhealthy behaviour, injury risk and help athletes return to sports safely following injury. These medical teams should be aware of the multiple consequences of injury in adolescent elite athletes

Bone strength, load tolerance and injury risk in elite Australian football

A paucity of research exists to characterise and investigate lower-body musculoskeletal characteristics and morphological adaptations in elite Australian Footballers with the aim to improve screening, monitoring and load management practices. Given the high prevalence of lower-body skeletal injuries in Australian Football; and the ability to measure, modify and train muscle and bone strength and their derivatives; this project served to extend scientific understanding of musculoskeletal morphology and bone strength characteristics in elite level field-based team sport athletes through a series of research studies using Dual-energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DXA) and peripheral Quantitative Computed Tomography (pQCT). In particular, studies one and two provided normative and comparative lower-body musculoskeletal profiles of elite Australian Footballers, stratified by training age (exposure), limb function (asymmetry) and injury incidence (stress fracture), while study three quantified the morphological changes and magnitude of adaptation and maladaptation experienced by Australian Footballers following an in-season and off-season annual phase. The general conclusion provided by the collective studies of this thesis promotes the importance of bone structure and geometry as potent contributors to skeletal robustness, and bone strength. Athletes with higher levels of training exposure and greater physical resilience exhibited higher tibial mass and cortical density with thicker cortical walls and larger muscle and bone cross-sectional areas. Asymmetrical adaptations from differential loading patterns between limbs through-out an in-season and off-season generate vastly different unilateral load tolerance capabilities when extrapolated overtime. The high-impact gravitational loads experienced by the support limb appear to optimise the development of robust skeletal properties specific to bone structure and geometry which may serve as a loading model to prophylactically enhance bilateral musculoskeletal strength and resilience. Study one provided a set of normative and comparative lower-body musculoskeletal values to describe and compare muscle and bone morphology between less experienced and more experienced athletes (training age); and differential loading patterns between the kicking and support limbs (limb function). Fifty-five athletes were stratified into less experienced (≤ 3 years; n = 27) and more experienced (\u3e 3 years; n = 28) groups in accordance with their training age. All athletes underwent whole-body DXA scans and lower-body pQCT tibial scans on the kicking and support limbs respectively. More experienced players exhibited greater tibial mass, trabecular vBMD, cortical vBMD and total vBMD (p \u3c 0.009; d ≥ 0.79); greater cortical thickness and cortical area (p \u3c 0.001; d ≥ 0.92), and larger stress-strain indices and absolute fracture loads (p ≤ 0.018; d ≥ 0.57) than less experienced players. More experienced players also exhibited greater muscle mass and muscle cross-sectional area (p ≤ 0.016; d ≥ 0.68). Differences were also observed between limbs, with greater material (tibial mass and cortical vBMD), structural (trabecular area, cortical area, total area, periosteal area and cortical thickness) and strength (stress-strain index and absolute fracture load) characteristics evident in the support leg comparative to the kicking leg of more experienced players (d ≥ 0.20); with significantly higher asymmetries in tibial mass and cross-sectional area evident in more experienced players than less experienced players as a product of limb function over time. The findings of this study illustrate that training exposure and continued participation in Australian Football produced greater lower-body material, structural and strength adaptations; with chronic exposure to asymmetrical loading patterns developing differential morphological changes between the kicking and support Study two provided a retrospective and comparative set of lower-body musculoskeletal data to describe and compare muscle and bone morphology between injured and non-injured Australian Football athletes, in addition to injured and non-injured limbs within injured players, in order to identify musculoskeletal characteristics which may predispose athletes to stress fractures or highlight skeletal fragility. Fifty-five athletes were stratified into injured (n = 13) and non-injured (n = 42) groups. All athletes underwent whole-body DXA scans and lower-body pQCT tibial scans across both limbs. Injured players exhibited lower tibial mass (p ≤ 0.019; d ≥ 0.68), cortical vBMD (d ≥ 0.38) and marrow vBMD (d ≥ 0.21); smaller cortical area and periosteal area (p ≤ 0.039; d ≥ 0.63); smaller trabecular area, marrow area, total area, endocortical area and cortical thickness (d ≥ 0.22); lower stress-strain indices, absolute fracture loads and relative fracture loads (support leg: p ≤ 0.043; d ≥ 0.70, kicking leg: d ≥ 0.48) than non-injured players. Injured players also exhibited lower muscle cross-sectional area and muscle mass (p ≤ 0.034; d ≥ 0.79), yet higher muscle density (d ≥ 0.28) than non-injured players. Differences between injured and non-injured limbs internal to injured players were also observed, with lower material (tibial mass and total vBMD), structural (cortical area and cortical thickness) and strength (stress-strain index and relative fracture load) in the injured limb comparative to the non-injured limb (d = 0.20 – 0.70). Muscle density was lower in the injured limb (d = 0.54). The findings of this study illustrate a general inferiority and global musculoskeletal weakness in injured players, with non-injured players ~10-12% stronger across both limbs. Injured players were skeletally slender with smaller muscle and bone cross-sectional areas and thinner cortices. Similarly, injured limbs of injured players also exhibited smaller structural proportions, highlighting the importance of cortical area and cortical thickness as key structural and geometric skeletal properties with potent contributions to bone strength and resilience. limbs. Indeed, routine high-impact, gravitational load afforded to the support limb preferentially improves bone structure and geometry (cross sectional area and thickness) as potent contributors to bone strength and skeletal fatigue resistance. Study three provided a seasonal investigation into lower-body musculoskeletal adaptations over the course of a ~26 week in-season and ~10 week off-season period in Australian Football. Forty athletes (n = 40) and twenty-two athletes (n = 22) were recruited to quantify morphological changes in muscle and bone following the in-season and off-season periods respectively. All athletes underwent whole-body DXA scans and lower-body pQCT tibial scans for the kicking and support limbs at the commencement and conclusion of each season. Australian Football athletes exhibited increases in trabecular vBMD, total vBMD and cortical thickness in the kicking leg; with increased cortical vBMD, total vBMD, trabecular area, total area, periosteal area, cortical thickness and reduced endocortical area in the support leg following the in-season period. Percent changes between limbs were significantly different for trabecular vBMD, cortical vBMD, total vBMD and trabecular area (p ≤ 0.049; d ≥ 0.46), despite similar increments in bone strength (~44 – 50 N), demonstrating asymmetrical morphological responses to differential loading patterns in-season. Conversely, Australian Football athletes exhibited material decreases in tibial mass, trabecular vBMD, cortical vBMD and total vBMD in both limbs over the off-season by similar yet opposite magnitudes to the benefits accrued during the in-season, in addition to reduced muscle area, highlighting a general musculoskeletal de-training effect. Structural adaptations were mostly maintained or increased for both limbs over the off-season, with bone strength completely reversed in the kicking leg, yet wholly preserved in the support leg; a lasting adaptation from regular high-impact, gravitational loading specific to the support leg. The findings of this study illustrate the osteogenic potential of a ~26 week in-season, and the de-training potential of a ~10 week off-season. Specifically, the kicking and support limbs continued to show asymmetrical morphological adaptations to differential in-season and off-season loading and de-loading patterns