48,224 research outputs found
Mobile Communication Signatures of Unemployment
The mapping of populations socio-economic well-being is highly constrained by
the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes
across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to
assess; thus the speed of which policies can be designed and evaluated is
limited. However, recent studies have shown the value of mobile phone data as
an enabling methodology for demographic modeling and measurement. In this work,
we investigate whether indicators extracted from mobile phone usage can reveal
information about the socio-economical status of microregions such as districts
(i.e., average spatial resolution < 2.7km). For this we examine anonymized
mobile phone metadata combined with beneficiaries records from unemployment
benefit program. We find that aggregated activity, social, and mobility
patterns strongly correlate with unemployment. Furthermore, we construct a
simple model to produce accurate reconstruction of district level unemployment
from their mobile communication patterns alone. Our results suggest that
reliable and cost-effective economical indicators could be built based on
passively collected and anonymized mobile phone data. With similar data being
collected every day by telecommunication services across the world,
survey-based methods of measuring community socioeconomic status could
potentially be augmented or replaced by such passive sensing methods in the
future
Can Google searches help nowcast and forecast unemployment rates in the Visegrad Group countries?
Online activity of the Internet users has been repeatedly shown to provide a
rich information set for various research fields. We focus on the job-related
searches on Google and their possible usefulness in the region of the Visegrad
Group -- the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Even for rather
small economies, the online searches of their inhabitants can be successfully
utilized for macroeconomic predictions. Specifically, we study the unemployment
rates and their interconnection to the job-related searches. We show that the
Google searches strongly enhance both nowcasting and forecasting models of the
unemployment rates.Comment: 22 pages, 2 figures, 3 table
Can electoral popularity be predicted using socially generated big data?
Today, our more-than-ever digital lives leave significant footprints in
cyberspace. Large scale collections of these socially generated footprints,
often known as big data, could help us to re-investigate different aspects of
our social collective behaviour in a quantitative framework. In this
contribution we discuss one such possibility: the monitoring and predicting of
popularity dynamics of candidates and parties through the analysis of socially
generated data on the web during electoral campaigns. Such data offer
considerable possibility for improving our awareness of popularity dynamics.
However they also suffer from significant drawbacks in terms of
representativeness and generalisability. In this paper we discuss potential
ways around such problems, suggesting the nature of different political systems
and contexts might lend differing levels of predictive power to certain types
of data source. We offer an initial exploratory test of these ideas, focussing
on two data streams, Wikipedia page views and Google search queries. On the
basis of this data, we present popularity dynamics from real case examples of
recent elections in three different countries.Comment: To appear in Information Technolog
How to Ask for a Favor: A Case Study on the Success of Altruistic Requests
Requests are at the core of many social media systems such as question &
answer sites and online philanthropy communities. While the success of such
requests is critical to the success of the community, the factors that lead
community members to satisfy a request are largely unknown. Success of a
request depends on factors like who is asking, how they are asking, when are
they asking, and most critically what is being requested, ranging from small
favors to substantial monetary donations. We present a case study of altruistic
requests in an online community where all requests ask for the very same
contribution and do not offer anything tangible in return, allowing us to
disentangle what is requested from textual and social factors. Drawing from
social psychology literature, we extract high-level social features from text
that operationalize social relations between recipient and donor and
demonstrate that these extracted relations are predictive of success. More
specifically, we find that clearly communicating need through the narrative is
essential and that that linguistic indications of gratitude, evidentiality, and
generalized reciprocity, as well as high status of the asker further increase
the likelihood of success. Building on this understanding, we develop a model
that can predict the success of unseen requests, significantly improving over
several baselines. We link these findings to research in psychology on helping
behavior, providing a basis for further analysis of success in social media
systems.Comment: To appear at ICWSM 2014. 10pp, 3 fig. Data and other info available
at http://www.mpi-sws.org/~cristian/How_to_Ask_for_a_Favor.htm
A meta-analysis of state-of-the-art electoral prediction from Twitter data
Electoral prediction from Twitter data is an appealing research topic. It
seems relatively straightforward and the prevailing view is overly optimistic.
This is problematic because while simple approaches are assumed to be good
enough, core problems are not addressed. Thus, this paper aims to (1) provide a
balanced and critical review of the state of the art; (2) cast light on the
presume predictive power of Twitter data; and (3) depict a roadmap to push
forward the field. Hence, a scheme to characterize Twitter prediction methods
is proposed. It covers every aspect from data collection to performance
evaluation, through data processing and vote inference. Using that scheme,
prior research is analyzed and organized to explain the main approaches taken
up to date but also their weaknesses. This is the first meta-analysis of the
whole body of research regarding electoral prediction from Twitter data. It
reveals that its presumed predictive power regarding electoral prediction has
been rather exaggerated: although social media may provide a glimpse on
electoral outcomes current research does not provide strong evidence to support
it can replace traditional polls. Finally, future lines of research along with
a set of requirements they must fulfill are provided.Comment: 19 pages, 3 table
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