13,665 research outputs found
Predictive Non-equilibrium Social Science
Non-Equilibrium Social Science (NESS) emphasizes dynamical phenomena, for
instance the way political movements emerge or competing organizations
interact. This paper argues that predictive analysis is an essential element of
NESS, occupying a central role in its scientific inquiry and representing a key
activity of practitioners in domains such as economics, public policy, and
national security. We begin by clarifying the distinction between models which
are useful for prediction and the much more common explanatory models studied
in the social sciences. We then investigate a challenging real-world predictive
analysis case study, and find evidence that the poor performance of standard
prediction methods does not indicate an absence of human predictability but
instead reflects (1.) incorrect assumptions concerning the predictive utility
of explanatory models, (2.) misunderstanding regarding which features of social
dynamics actually possess predictive power, and (3.) practical difficulties
exploiting predictive representations.Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1212.680
Graph Theory and Networks in Biology
In this paper, we present a survey of the use of graph theoretical techniques
in Biology. In particular, we discuss recent work on identifying and modelling
the structure of bio-molecular networks, as well as the application of
centrality measures to interaction networks and research on the hierarchical
structure of such networks and network motifs. Work on the link between
structural network properties and dynamics is also described, with emphasis on
synchronization and disease propagation.Comment: 52 pages, 5 figures, Survey Pape
Activity driven modeling of time varying networks
Network modeling plays a critical role in identifying statistical
regularities and structural principles common to many systems. The large
majority of recent modeling approaches are connectivity driven. The structural
patterns of the network are at the basis of the mechanisms ruling the network
formation. Connectivity driven models necessarily provide a time-aggregated
representation that may fail to describe the instantaneous and fluctuating
dynamics of many networks. We address this challenge by defining the activity
potential, a time invariant function characterizing the agents' interactions
and constructing an activity driven model capable of encoding the instantaneous
time description of the network dynamics. The model provides an explanation of
structural features such as the presence of hubs, which simply originate from
the heterogeneous activity of agents. Within this framework, highly dynamical
networks can be described analytically, allowing a quantitative discussion of
the biases induced by the time-aggregated representations in the analysis of
dynamical processes.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figure
Dynamical modeling of collective behavior from pigeon flight data: flock cohesion and dispersion
Several models of flocking have been promoted based on simulations with
qualitatively naturalistic behavior. In this paper we provide the first direct
application of computational modeling methods to infer flocking behavior from
experimental field data. We show that this approach is able to infer general
rules for interaction, or lack of interaction, among members of a flock or,
more generally, any community. Using experimental field measurements of homing
pigeons in flight we demonstrate the existence of a basic distance dependent
attraction/repulsion relationship and show that this rule is sufficient to
explain collective behavior observed in nature. Positional data of individuals
over time are used as input data to a computational algorithm capable of
building complex nonlinear functions that can represent the system behavior.
Topological nearest neighbor interactions are considered to characterize the
components within this model. The efficacy of this method is demonstrated with
simulated noisy data generated from the classical (two dimensional) Vicsek
model. When applied to experimental data from homing pigeon flights we show
that the more complex three dimensional models are capable of predicting and
simulating trajectories, as well as exhibiting realistic collective dynamics.
The simulations of the reconstructed models are used to extract properties of
the collective behavior in pigeons, and how it is affected by changing the
initial conditions of the system. Our results demonstrate that this approach
may be applied to construct models capable of simulating trajectories and
collective dynamics using experimental field measurements of herd movement.
From these models, the behavior of the individual agents (animals) may be
inferred
Data based identification and prediction of nonlinear and complex dynamical systems
We thank Dr. R. Yang (formerly at ASU), Dr. R.-Q. Su (formerly at ASU), and Mr. Zhesi Shen for their contributions to a number of original papers on which this Review is partly based. This work was supported by ARO under Grant No. W911NF-14-1-0504. W.-X. Wang was also supported by NSFC under Grants No. 61573064 and No. 61074116, as well as by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, Beijing Nova Programme.Peer reviewedPostprin
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