60,314 research outputs found
Predicting User Views in Online News
We analyze user viewing behavior on an
online news site. We collect data from
64,000 news articles, and use text features
to predict frequency of user views.
We compare predictiveness of the headline
and “teaser” (viewed before clicking) and
the body (viewed after clicking). Both are
predictive of clicking behavior, with the
full article text being most predictive
Will This Video Go Viral? Explaining and Predicting the Popularity of Youtube Videos
What makes content go viral? Which videos become popular and why others
don't? Such questions have elicited significant attention from both researchers
and industry, particularly in the context of online media. A range of models
have been recently proposed to explain and predict popularity; however, there
is a short supply of practical tools, accessible for regular users, that
leverage these theoretical results. HIPie -- an interactive visualization
system -- is created to fill this gap, by enabling users to reason about the
virality and the popularity of online videos. It retrieves the metadata and the
past popularity series of Youtube videos, it employs Hawkes Intensity Process,
a state-of-the-art online popularity model for explaining and predicting video
popularity, and it presents videos comparatively in a series of interactive
plots. This system will help both content consumers and content producers in a
range of data-driven inquiries, such as to comparatively analyze videos and
channels, to explain and predict future popularity, to identify viral videos,
and to estimate response to online promotion.Comment: 4 page
Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success based on Wikipedia Activity Big Data
Use of socially generated "big data" to access information about collective
states of the minds in human societies has become a new paradigm in the
emerging field of computational social science. A natural application of this
would be the prediction of the society's reaction to a new product in the sense
of popularity and adoption rate. However, bridging the gap between "real time
monitoring" and "early predicting" remains a big challenge. Here we report on
an endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model for the financial success
of movies based on collective activity data of online users. We show that the
popularity of a movie can be predicted much before its release by measuring and
analyzing the activity level of editors and viewers of the corresponding entry
to the movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online encyclopedia.Comment: 13 pages, Including Supporting Information, 7 Figures, Download the
dataset from: http://wwm.phy.bme.hu/SupplementaryDataS1.zi
Analysis and Forecasting of Trending Topics in Online Media Streams
Among the vast information available on the web, social media streams capture
what people currently pay attention to and how they feel about certain topics.
Awareness of such trending topics plays a crucial role in multimedia systems
such as trend aware recommendation and automatic vocabulary selection for video
concept detection systems.
Correctly utilizing trending topics requires a better understanding of their
various characteristics in different social media streams. To this end, we
present the first comprehensive study across three major online and social
media streams, Twitter, Google, and Wikipedia, covering thousands of trending
topics during an observation period of an entire year. Our results indicate
that depending on one's requirements one does not necessarily have to turn to
Twitter for information about current events and that some media streams
strongly emphasize content of specific categories. As our second key
contribution, we further present a novel approach for the challenging task of
forecasting the life cycle of trending topics in the very moment they emerge.
Our fully automated approach is based on a nearest neighbor forecasting
technique exploiting our assumption that semantically similar topics exhibit
similar behavior.
We demonstrate on a large-scale dataset of Wikipedia page view statistics
that forecasts by the proposed approach are about 9-48k views closer to the
actual viewing statistics compared to baseline methods and achieve a mean
average percentage error of 45-19% for time periods of up to 14 days.Comment: ACM Multimedia 201
Can Cascades be Predicted?
On many social networking web sites such as Facebook and Twitter, resharing
or reposting functionality allows users to share others' content with their own
friends or followers. As content is reshared from user to user, large cascades
of reshares can form. While a growing body of research has focused on analyzing
and characterizing such cascades, a recent, parallel line of work has argued
that the future trajectory of a cascade may be inherently unpredictable. In
this work, we develop a framework for addressing cascade prediction problems.
On a large sample of photo reshare cascades on Facebook, we find strong
performance in predicting whether a cascade will continue to grow in the
future. We find that the relative growth of a cascade becomes more predictable
as we observe more of its reshares, that temporal and structural features are
key predictors of cascade size, and that initially, breadth, rather than depth
in a cascade is a better indicator of larger cascades. This prediction
performance is robust in the sense that multiple distinct classes of features
all achieve similar performance. We also discover that temporal features are
predictive of a cascade's eventual shape. Observing independent cascades of the
same content, we find that while these cascades differ greatly in size, we are
still able to predict which ends up the largest
- …