Can Neuroscience Help Predict Future Antisocial Behavior?

Part I of this Article reviews the tools currently available to predict antisocial behavior. Part II discusses legal precedent regarding the use of, and challenges to, various prediction methods. Part III introduces recent neuroscience work in this area and reviews two studies that have successfully used neuroimaging techniques to predict recidivism. Part IV discusses some criticisms that are commonly levied against the various prediction methods and highlights the disparity between the attitudes of the scientific and legal communities toward risk assessment generally and neuroscience specifically. Lastly, Part V explains why neuroscience methods will likely continue to help inform and, ideally, improve the tools we use to help assess, understand, and predict human behavior

An Empirical analysis of Open Source Software Defects data through Software Reliability Growth Models

The purpose of this study is to analyze the reliability growth of Open Source Software (OSS) using Software Reliability Growth Models (SRGM). This study uses defects data of twenty five different releases of five OSS projects. For each release of the selected projects two types of datasets have been created; datasets developed with respect to defect creation date (created date DS) and datasets developed with respect to defect updated date (updated date DS). These defects datasets are modelled by eight SRGMs; Musa Okumoto, Inflection S-Shaped, Goel Okumoto, Delayed S-Shaped, Logistic, Gompertz, Yamada Exponential, and Generalized Goel Model. These models are chosen due to their widespread use in the literature. The SRGMs are fitted to both types of defects datasets of each project and the their fitting and prediction capabilities are analysed in order to study the OSS reliability growth with respect to defects creation and defects updating time because defect analysis can be used as a constructive reliability predictor. Results show that SRGMs fitting capabilities and prediction qualities directly increase when defects creation date is used for developing OSS defect datasets to characterize the reliability growth of OSS. Hence OSS reliability growth can be characterized with SRGM in a better way if the defect creation date is taken instead of defects updating (fixing) date while developing OSS defects datasets in their reliability modellin

Checking the fact-checkers in 2008: predicting political ad scrutiny and assessing consistency

Which types of political ads are most likely to draw criticism from fact-checkers? Are fact-checkers consistent in their evaluations of political ads? Examining general election television ads from the 2008 U.S. presidential race, and based upon the evaluations of FactCheck.org, PolitiFact.com, and the Washington Post's Fact Checker, this study demonstrates it was the attack ads from candidates that were most likely to draw scrutiny from the fact-checkers. Most importantly, a high level of agreement between the fact-checkers indicates their success at selecting political claims that can be consistently evaluated. While political advertisers are increasingly using evidence to support their claims, what may be more critical in drawing evaluations from fact-checkers is the verifiability of a claim. The implications of consistent fact-checking on the public, political actors, journalism and democracy are discussed. With the revelation that fact-checking can be consistently practiced, localized efforts at fact-checking need encouragement, particularly as political TV ads increasingly drown out other potential sources of information for the public and increasingly are used in downballot races, local initiatives, referendums and judicial races

Do System Test Cases Grow Old?

Companies increasingly use either manual or automated system testing to ensure the quality of their software products. As a system evolves and is extended with new features the test suite also typically grows as new test cases are added. To ensure software quality throughout this process the test suite is continously executed, often on a daily basis. It seems likely that newly added tests would be more likely to fail than older tests but this has not been investigated in any detail on large-scale, industrial software systems. Also it is not clear which methods should be used to conduct such an analysis. This paper proposes three main concepts that can be used to investigate aging effects in the use and failure behavior of system test cases: test case activation curves, test case hazard curves, and test case half-life. To evaluate these concepts and the type of analysis they enable we apply them on an industrial software system containing more than one million lines of code. The data sets comes from a total of 1,620 system test cases executed a total of more than half a million times over a time period of two and a half years. For the investigated system we find that system test cases stay active as they age but really do grow old; they go through an infant mortality phase with higher failure rates which then decline over time. The test case half-life is between 5 to 12 months for the two studied data sets.Comment: Updated with nicer figs without border around the

Inter-rater reliability and validity of the Australian Football League\u27s kicking and handball tests

Talent identification tests used at the Australian Football League’s National Draft Combine assess the capacities of athletes to compete at a professional level. Tests created for the National Draft Combine are also commonly used for talent identification and athlete development in development pathways. The skills tests created by the Australian Football League required players to either handball (striking the ball with the hand) or kick to a series of 6 randomly generated targets. Assessors subjectively rate each skill execution giving a 0-5 score for each disposal. This study aimed to investigate the inter-rater reliability and validity of the skills tests at an adolescent sub-elite level. Male Australian footballers were recruited from sub-elite adolescent teams (n=121, age=15.7 ± 0.3 years, height=1.77 ± 0.07 m, mass=69.17 ± 8.08 kg). The coaches (n=7) of each team were also recruited. Inter-rater reliability was assessed using Inter-class correlations (ICC) and Limits of Agreement analysis. Both the kicking (ICC=0.96, P\u3c0.01) and handball tests (ICC=0.89, P\u3c0.01) demonstrated strong reliability and acceptable levels of absolute agreement. Content validity was determined by examining test scores sensitivity to laterality and distance. Concurrent validity was assessed by comparing coaches’ perceptions of skill to actual test outcomes. Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) examined the main effect of laterality, with scores on the dominant hand (P=0.04) and foot (P\u3c0.01) significantly higher compared to the non-dominant side. Follow-up univariate analysis showing significant differences at every distance in the kicking test. A poor correlation was found between coaches’ perceptions of skill and testing outcomes. The results of this study demonstrate both skill tests demonstrate acceptable inter-rater reliable. Partial content validity was confirmed for the kicking test, however further research is required to confirm validity of the handball test

Australian forensic psychologists' perspectives on the merits and limits of actuarial instruments in predicting recidivism among violent offenders and sex offenders

Actuarial approaches are regarded as more accurate than both unstructured and structured clinical approaches in assessing risk of recidivism among sex offenders. While there has been a plethora of research on evaluating the effectiveness of actuarial instruments, there has been a paucity of research investigating their actual level of use in forensic settings. In addition, little is known about the practical difficulties associated with administering actuarial instruments. This paper reports on a survey completed by forensic psychologists in Australia about the risk assessment tools they prefer and the benefits and difficulties associated with their use. In addition, the paper explores the extent to which forensic psychologists use clinical information to adjust the level of risk identified through the actuarial approach. The findings are discussed in light of the utility of particular approaches to assessing risk of recidivism among violent offenders and sex offenders

Bayesian inference for a software reliability model using metrics information.

In this paper, we are concerned with predicting the number of faults N and the time to next failure of a piece of software. Information in the form of software metrics data is used to estimate the prior distribution of N via a Poisson regression model. Given failure time data, and a well known model for software failures, we show how to sample the posterior distribution using Gibbs sampling, as implemented in the package "WinBugs". The approach is illustrated with a practical example