Risco de queda relacionado a medicamentos em hospitais: abordagem de aprendizado de máquina

Objective: To compare the performance of machine-learning models with the Medication Fall Risk Score (MFRS) in predicting fall risk related to prescription medications. Methods: This is a retrospective case-control study of adult and older adult patients in a tertiary hospital in Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil. Prescription drugs and drug classes were investigated. Data were exported to the RStudio software for statistical analysis. The variables were analyzed using Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting algorithms. Algorithm validation was performed using 10-fold cross validation. The Youden index was the metric selected to evaluate the models. The project was approved by the Research Ethics Committee. Results: The machine-learning model showing the best performance was the one developed by the Naive Bayes algorithm. The model built from a data set of a specific hospital showed better results for the studied population than did MFRS, a generalizable tool. Conclusion: Risk-prediction tools that depend on proper application and registration by professionals require time and attention that could be allocated to patient care. Prediction models built through machine-learning algorithms can help identify risks to improve patient care

MD-Manifold: A Medical Distance Based Manifold Learning Approach for Heart Failure Readmission Prediction

Dimension reduction is considered as a necessary technique in Electronic Healthcare Records (EHR) data processing. However, no existing work addresses both of the two points: 1) generating low-dimensional representations for each patient visit; and 2) taking advantage of the well-organized medical concept structure as the domain knowledge. Hence, we propose a new framework to generate low-dimensional representations for medical data records by combining the concept-structure based distance with manifold learning. To demonstrate the efficacy, we generated low-dimensional representations for hospital visits of heart failure patients, which was further used for a 30-day readmission prediction. The experiments showed a great potential of the proposed representations (AUC = 60.7%) that has comparative predictive power of the state-of-the-art methods, including one hot encoding representations (AUC = 60.1%) and PCA representations (AUC = 58.3%), with much less training time (improved by 99%). The proposed framework can also be generalized to various healthcare-related prediction tasks, such as mortality prediction

Assessing Prevalence of Known Risk Factors in a Regional Central Kentucky Medical Center Heart Failure Population as an Approach to Assessment of Needs for Development of a Program to Provide Targeted Services to Reduce 30 Day Readmissions

Abstract Objectives: Determine demographic, physiologic, and laboratory characteristics at time of admission of the heart failure (HF) population in a regional acute care facility in Central Kentucky through review of patient electronic medical records. Determine which HF population characteristics are significantly associated with readmissions to the hospital. Provide identification of the statistically significant common characteristics of the HF population to this facility so that they may work towards development of an electronic risk for readmission predictive instrument. Design: Retrospective chart review. Setting: Regional acute care facility in Central Kentucky. Participants: All patients (n = 175) with a diagnosis or history of HF (to include diagnosis related group (DRG) codes 402.01, 402.11, 402.91, 404.01, 404.03, 404.11, 404.13, 404.91, 404.93, 428.1, 428.41, 428.23, 428.43, 428.31, 428.33, 428.1, 428.20, 428.22, 428.30, 428.32, 428.40, 428.40, 428.42, 428.0, and 428.9; The Joint Commission, 2013) admitted to the acute care setting of a regional hospital in the Central Kentucky area between the dates of January 1, 2013 and July 31, 2013. Eligible participants were identified via an electronic discharge report listing all patients discharged during the study time period with a HF code. Main Outcome Measure: A chart review was performed to define the HF population within the regional acute care facility. Abstracted information was collected on data instruments (Appendices A,B, and C) and analyzed to define the overall HF population (n = 175). The data was then analyzed to determine significance between patient characteristics (demographic, physiologic, and laboratory) and 30 day readmissions. The data was examined both on the individual patient level and independent of patient level looking at each admission independently. Results: An in depth description of the HF patient population in this facility was obtained. Several patient characteristics including a history of anemia, COPD, ischemic heart disease, diabetes, and the laboratory values creatinine and BNP outside of the reference range were found to have a significant association with 30 day readmissions. Discharge to a skilled nursing facility (SNF) was also found to be a significant predictor of 30 day readmissions. Some social variables such as marital status were not found to have a significant relationship to 30 day readmissions. Conclusion: This investigation is a stepping stone to creating an electronic tool designed to reflect the characteristics of HF population admitted to a single facility and predict risk of HF readmissions within 30 days at the time of admission. Implementation of a plan of care designed to meet the needs of this HF population as well as identify those patients at high risk for will allow for provision of a comprehensive and timely individualized plan of care to reduce the incidence of 30 day readmissions

Prediciendo reingresos hospitalarios no planificados antes de 15 días: una aplicación de la regresión logística

Hospital readmission is considered a key research area for improving care coordination and achieving potential savings. This is important because hospital readmissions can have negative consequences in terms of good health and recovery for patients. It is thus important to significantly reduce such readmissions. Unfortunately, there isn't a one-size-fits-all solution to preventing hospital readmissions. There are many variables outside of hospitals' direct control, such as social determinants and patient lifestyle factors, impacting readmissions. Although several studies have been undertaken to investigate 30-day readmissions, predicting revisits in shorter intervals (e.g., within 15 days after discharge) is highly needed to capture hospital-attributable returns better and develop more effective improvement plans. Hence, the aim of this paper is three-fold: i) to develop a comprehensive experimental study for identifying factors affecting 15-day readmission risk, ii) to classify patients according to the risk of 15-day readmission using logistic regression, and iii) provide general recommendations to reduce the 15-day readmission risk considering different predictors. To this end, the patients' characteristics were first described. Then, the significance of potential predictors, their interactions, and their effects were assessed. After this, a logistic regression model was derived to predict the likelihood of 15-day readmission in each patient. Finally, general recommendations were provided to reduce 15-day revisits. A real case study in Colombia was considered to validate the proposed methodology

An explanatory machine learning framework for studying pandemics: The case of COVID-19 emergency department readmissions

ArticleInPressOne of the major challenges that confront medical experts during a pandemic is the time required to identify and validate the risk factors of the novel disease and to develop an effective treatment protocol. Traditionally, this process involves numerous clinical trials that may take up to several years, during which strict preventive measures must be in place to control the outbreak and reduce the deaths. Advanced data analytics techniques, however, can be leveraged to guide and speed up this process. In this study, we combine evolutionary search algorithms, deep learning, and advanced model interpretation methods to develop a holistic exploratory- predictive-explanatory machine learning framework that can assist clinical decision-makers in reacting to the challenges of a pandemic in a timely manner. The proposed framework is showcased in studying emergency department (ED) readmissions of COVID-19 patients using ED visits from a real-world electronic health records database. After an exploratory feature selection phase using genetic algorithm, we develop and train a deep artificial neural network to predict early (i.e., 7-day) readmissions (AUC = 0.883). Lastly, a SHAP model is formulated to estimate additive Shapley values (i.e., importance scores) of the features and to interpret the magnitude and direction of their effects. The findings are mostly in line with those reported by lengthy and expensive clinical trial studies

Anticipatory Care in Potentially Preventable Hospitalizations: Making Data Sense of Complex Health Journeys

Purpose: Potentially preventable hospitalizations (PPH) are minimized when adults (usually with multiple morbidities ± frailty) benefit from alternatives to emergency hospital use. A complex systems and anticipatory journey approach to PPH, the Patient Journey Record System (PaJR) is proposed.Application: PaJR is a web-based service supporting ≥weekly telephone calls by trained lay Care Guides (CG) to individuals at risk of PPH. The Victorian HealthLinks Chronic Care algorithm provides case finding from hospital big data. Prediction algorithms on call data helps optimize emergency hospital use through adaptive and anticipatory care. MonashWatch deployment incorporating PaJR is conducted by Monash Health in its Dandenong urban catchment area, Victoria, Australia.Theory: A Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) framework underpins PaJR, and recognizes unique individual journeys, their dependence on historical and biopsychosocial influences, and difficult to predict tipping points. Rosen's modeling relationship and anticipation theory additionally informed the CAS framework with data sense-making and care delivery. PaJR uses perceptions of current and future health (interoception) through ongoing conversations to anticipate possible tipping points. This allows for possible timely intervention in trajectories in the biopsychosocial dimensions of patients as “particulars” in their unique trajectories.Evaluation: Monash Watch is actively monitoring 272 of 376 intervention patients, with 195 controls over 22 months (ongoing). Trajectories of poor health (SRH) and anticipation of worse/uncertain health (AH), and CG concerns statistically shifted at a tipping point, 3 days before admission in the subset who experienced ≥1 acute admission. The −3 day point was generally consistent across age and gender. Three randomly selected case studies demonstrate the processes of anticipatory and reactive care. PaJR-supported services achieved higher than pre-set targets—consistent reduction in acute bed days (20–25%) vs. target 10% and high levels of patient satisfaction.Discussion: Anticipatory care is an emerging trajectory data analytic approach that uses human sense-making as its core metric demonstrates improvements in processes and outcomes. Multiple sources can provide big data to inform trajectory care, however simple tailored data collections may prove effective if they embrace human interoception and anticipation. Admission risk may be addressed with a simple data collections including SRH, AH, and CG perceptions, where practical.Conclusion: Anticipatory care, as operationalized through PaJR approaches applied in MonashWatch, demonstrates processes and outcomes that successfully ameliorate PPH

Contributions from computational intelligence to healthcare data processing

80 p.The increasing ability to gather, store and process health care information, through the electronic health records and improved communication methods opens the door for new applications intended to improve health care in many different ways. Crucial to this evolution is the development of new computational intelligence tools, related to machine learning and statistics. In this thesis we have dealt with two case studies involving health data. The first is the monitoring of children with respiratory diseases in the pediatric intensive care unit of a hospital. The alarm detection is stated as a classification problem predicting the triage selected by the nurse or medical doctor. The second is the prediction of readmissions leading to hospitalization in an emergency department of a hospital. Both problems have great impact in economic and personal well being. We have tackled them with a rigorous methodological approach, obtaining results that may lead to a real life implementation. We have taken special care in the treatment of the data imbalance. Finally we make propositions to bring these techniques to the clinical environment