Predicting Product Performance with Social Media

Last 20 years brought massive growth in IT&C world. Mobile solutions such as netbooks, laptops, mobile phones, tablets enable the wireless connection to the Internet. Anyone can ac-cess it anytime and anywhere. In this context, a part of the activities from the real world have a correspondence in the online discussions. Social media in general and social networks in particular have turned into marketing tools for organizations and a place where people can express their opinions and attitudes about products.The paper shows how social media can be used for predicting the success of a product or service. To showcase this, two case studies are presented; a test to prove that the conversations that take place in social media are a good indicator of success and the second is an exercise to predict the winner of the Oscar for best picture in 2011.Social Media, Social Networks, Prediction, Movie, Internet

Predictive Analytics on Emotional Data Mined from Digital Social Networks with a Focus on Financial Markets

This dissertation is a cumulative dissertation and is comprised of five articles. User-Generated Content (UGC) comprises a substantial part of communication via social media. In this dissertation, UGC that carries and facilitates the exchange of emotions is referred to as “emotional data.” People “produce” emotional data, that is, they express their emotions via tweets, forum posts, blogs, and so on, or they “consume” it by being influenced by expressed sentiments, feelings, opinions, and the like. Decisions often depend on shared emotions and data – which again lead to new data because decisions may change behaviors or results. “Emotional Data Intelligence” ultimately seeks an answer to the question of how all the different emotions expressed in public online sources influence decision-making processes. The overarching research topic of this dissertation follows the question whether network structures and emotional sentiment data extracted from digital social networks contain predictive information or they are just noise. Underlying data was collected from different social media sources, such as Twitter, blogs, message boards, or online news and social networking sites, such as Xing. By means of methodologies of social network analysis (SNA), sentiment analysis, and predictive analysis the individual contributions of this dissertation study whether sentiment data from social media or online social networking structures can predict real-world behaviors. The focus lies on the analysis of emotional data and network structures and its predictive power for financial markets. With the formal construction of the data analyses methodologies introduced in the individual contributions this dissertation contributes to the theories of social network analysis, sentiment analysis, and predictive analytics

"i have a feeling trump will win..................": Forecasting Winners and Losers from User Predictions on Twitter

Social media users often make explicit predictions about upcoming events. Such statements vary in the degree of certainty the author expresses toward the outcome:"Leonardo DiCaprio will win Best Actor" vs. "Leonardo DiCaprio may win" or "No way Leonardo wins!". Can popular beliefs on social media predict who will win? To answer this question, we build a corpus of tweets annotated for veridicality on which we train a log-linear classifier that detects positive veridicality with high precision. We then forecast uncertain outcomes using the wisdom of crowds, by aggregating users' explicit predictions. Our method for forecasting winners is fully automated, relying only on a set of contenders as input. It requires no training data of past outcomes and outperforms sentiment and tweet volume baselines on a broad range of contest prediction tasks. We further demonstrate how our approach can be used to measure the reliability of individual accounts' predictions and retrospectively identify surprise outcomes.Comment: Accepted at EMNLP 2017 (long paper

Quantitative approaches for evaluating the influence of films using the IMDb database

[EN] Why do films certain remain influential throughout film history? The purpose of this paper is to attempt to answer this question. To do so, we adopt some quantitative approaches that facilitate an objective interpretation of the data. The data source we have chosen for this study is the Internet Online Movie Database (IMDb), and in particular, one of its sections called "Connections", which lists references made to a film in subsequent movies and references made in the film itself to previous ones. The extraction and analysis of these networks of citations allows us to draw some conclusions about the most influential movies in film history, identifying their distinguishing features, and considering how their popularity has evolved over time.This work is part of the Project "Active Audiences and Journalism. Interactivity, Web Integration and Findability of Journalistic Information". CSO2012-39518-C04-02. National Plan for R+D+i, Spanish Ministry of Economy and CompetitivenessCanet Centellas, FJ.; Valero Navarro, MA.; Codina Bonilla, L. (2016). Quantitative approaches for evaluating the influence of films using the IMDb database. Communication & Society. 29(2):151-172. https://doi.org/10.15581/003.29.2.151-172S15117229

Models of Social Groups in Blogosphere Based on Information about Comment Addressees and Sentiments

This work concerns the analysis of number, sizes and other characteristics of groups identified in the blogosphere using a set of models identifying social relations. These models differ regarding identification of social relations, influenced by methods of classifying the addressee of the comments (they are either the post author or the author of a comment on which this comment is directly addressing) and by a sentiment calculated for comments considering the statistics of words present and connotation. The state of a selected blog portal was analyzed in sequential, partly overlapping time intervals. Groups in each interval were identified using a version of the CPM algorithm, on the basis of them, stable groups, existing for at least a minimal assumed duration of time, were identified.Comment: Gliwa B., Ko\'zlak J., Zygmunt A., Models of Social Groups in Blogosphere Based on Information about Comment Addressees and Sentiments, in the K. Aberer et al. (Eds.): SocInfo 2012, LNCS 7710, pp. 475-488, Best Paper Awar

Improving productivity in Hollywood with data science: Using emotional arcs of movies to drive product and service innovation in entertainment industries

Improving productivity in the entertainment industry is a very challenging task as it heavily depends on generating attractive content for the consumers. The consumer-centric design (putting the consumers at the centre of the content development and production) focuses on ways in which businesses can design customized services and products which accurately reflect consumer preferences. We propose a new framework which allows to use data science to optimize content-generation in entertainment and test this framework for the motion picture industry. We use the natural language processing methodology combined with econometric analysis to explore whether and to what extent emotions shape consumer preferences for media and entertainment content, which, in turn, affect revenue streams. By analyzing 6,174 movie scripts, we generate the emotional trajectory of each motion picture. We then combine the obtained mappings into clusters which represent groupings of consumer emotional journeys. These clusters are then plugged into an econometric model to predict overall success parameters of the movies including box office revenues, viewer satisfaction levels (captured by IMDb ratings), awards, as well as the number of viewers’ and critics’ reviews. We find that emotional arcs in movies can be partitioned into 6 basic shapes. The highest box offices are associated with the Man in a Hole shape which is characterized by an emotional fall followed by an emotional rise. This U-shaped emotional arc results in financially successful movies irrespective of genre and production budget. Implications of this analysis for generating on-demand content and improving productivity in entertainment industries are discussed

Screening for the Success Potential of New Products: The Case of the Movie Industry

To minimize costs and risks, it is critical for firms to identify the success potential of new products early in the new product development (NPD) process. Despite the benefits of early assessment, however, current NPD processes rarely determine product launch decisions at the idea/concept stage. To provide novel insights about ways to predict market outcomes at an early stage, this paper explores the contributions of key elements of new product ideas/concepts (categorized as product features and emotional features) to financial outcomes. Using the motion picture industry of the United States as the study context, this paper assesses films’ return on investments (ROI), by using information available at the idea screening (i.e., greenlighting) stage. A text analysis reveals that product and emotional features of screenplays influence of box office ROI, validating that these proposed features of new product ideas can successfully explain market outcomes. Accordingly, this paper highlights the importance of linking new ideas to market outcomes if the goal is to improve the NPD decision-making process and create a better greenlighting process for movie studios