PREDICTING THE INDIVIDUAL MOOD LEVEL BASED ON DIARY DATA

Understanding mood changes of individuals with depressive disorders is crucial in order to guide personalized therapeutic interventions. Based on diary data, in which clients of an online depression treatment report their activities as free text, we categorize these activities and predict the mood level of clients. We apply a bag-of-words text-mining approach for activity categorization and explore recurrent neuronal networks to support this task. Using the identified activities, we develop partial ordered logit models with varying levels of heterogeneity among clients to predict their mood. We estimate the parameters of these models by employing Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques and compare the models regarding their predictive performance. Therefore, by combining text-mining and Bayesian estimation techniques, we apply a two-stage analysis approach in order to reveal relationships between various activity categories and the individual mood level. Our findings indicate that the mood level is influenced negatively when participants report about sickness or rumination. Social activities have a positive influence on the mood. By understanding the influences of daily activities on the individual mood level, we hope to improve the efficacy of online behavior therapy, provide support in the context of clinical decision-making, and contribute to the development of personalized interventions

Anticipatory Mobile Computing: A Survey of the State of the Art and Research Challenges

Today's mobile phones are far from mere communication devices they were ten years ago. Equipped with sophisticated sensors and advanced computing hardware, phones can be used to infer users' location, activity, social setting and more. As devices become increasingly intelligent, their capabilities evolve beyond inferring context to predicting it, and then reasoning and acting upon the predicted context. This article provides an overview of the current state of the art in mobile sensing and context prediction paving the way for full-fledged anticipatory mobile computing. We present a survey of phenomena that mobile phones can infer and predict, and offer a description of machine learning techniques used for such predictions. We then discuss proactive decision making and decision delivery via the user-device feedback loop. Finally, we discuss the challenges and opportunities of anticipatory mobile computing.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figure

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science

Off-Policy Evaluation of Probabilistic Identity Data in Lookalike Modeling

We evaluate the impact of probabilistically-constructed digital identity data collected from Sep. to Dec. 2017 (approx.), in the context of Lookalike-targeted campaigns. The backbone of this study is a large set of probabilistically-constructed "identities", represented as small bags of cookies and mobile ad identifiers with associated metadata, that are likely all owned by the same underlying user. The identity data allows to generate "identity-based", rather than "identifier-based", user models, giving a fuller picture of the interests of the users underlying the identifiers. We employ off-policy techniques to evaluate the potential of identity-powered lookalike models without incurring the risk of allowing untested models to direct large amounts of ad spend or the large cost of performing A/B tests. We add to historical work on off-policy evaluation by noting a significant type of "finite-sample bias" that occurs for studies combining modestly-sized datasets and evaluation metrics involving rare events (e.g., conversions). We illustrate this bias using a simulation study that later informs the handling of inverse propensity weights in our analyses on real data. We demonstrate significant lift in identity-powered lookalikes versus an identity-ignorant baseline: on average ~70% lift in conversion rate. This rises to factors of ~(4-32)x for identifiers having little data themselves, but that can be inferred to belong to users with substantial data to aggregate across identifiers. This implies that identity-powered user modeling is especially important in the context of identifiers having very short lifespans (i.e., frequently churned cookies). Our work motivates and informs the use of probabilistically-constructed identities in marketing. It also deepens the canon of examples in which off-policy learning has been employed to evaluate the complex systems of the internet economy.Comment: Accepted by WSDM 201

Student Privacy in Learning Analytics: An Information Ethics Perspective

In recent years, educational institutions have started using the tools of commercial data analytics in higher education. By gathering information about students as they navigate campus information systems, learning analytics “uses analytic techniques to help target instructional, curricular, and support resources” to examine student learning behaviors and change students’ learning environments. As a result, the information educators and educational institutions have at their disposal is no longer demarcated by course content and assessments, and old boundaries between information used for assessment and information about how students live and work are blurring. Our goal in this paper is to provide a systematic discussion of the ways in which privacy and learning analytics conflict and to provide a framework for understanding those conflicts. We argue that there are five crucial issues about student privacy that we must address in order to ensure that whatever the laudable goals and gains of learning analytics, they are commensurate with respecting students’ privacy and associated rights, including (but not limited to) autonomy interests. First, we argue that we must distinguish among different entities with respect to whom students have, or lack, privacy. Second, we argue that we need clear criteria for what information may justifiably be collected in the name of learning analytics. Third, we need to address whether purported consequences of learning analytics (e.g., better learning outcomes) are justified and what the distributions of those consequences are. Fourth, we argue that regardless of how robust the benefits of learning analytics turn out to be, students have important autonomy interests in how information about them is collected. Finally, we argue that it is an open question whether the goods that justify higher education are advanced by learning analytics, or whether collection of information actually runs counter to those goods