Impact Assessment of Hypothesized Cyberattacks on Interconnected Bulk Power Systems

The first-ever Ukraine cyberattack on power grid has proven its devastation by hacking into their critical cyber assets. With administrative privileges accessing substation networks/local control centers, one intelligent way of coordinated cyberattacks is to execute a series of disruptive switching executions on multiple substations using compromised supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems. These actions can cause significant impacts to an interconnected power grid. Unlike the previous power blackouts, such high-impact initiating events can aggravate operating conditions, initiating instability that may lead to system-wide cascading failure. A systemic evaluation of "nightmare" scenarios is highly desirable for asset owners to manage and prioritize the maintenance and investment in protecting their cyberinfrastructure. This survey paper is a conceptual expansion of real-time monitoring, anomaly detection, impact analyses, and mitigation (RAIM) framework that emphasizes on the resulting impacts, both on steady-state and dynamic aspects of power system stability. Hypothetically, we associate the combinatorial analyses of steady state on substations/components outages and dynamics of the sequential switching orders as part of the permutation. The expanded framework includes (1) critical/noncritical combination verification, (2) cascade confirmation, and (3) combination re-evaluation. This paper ends with a discussion of the open issues for metrics and future design pertaining the impact quantification of cyber-related contingencies

POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM RELIABILITY AND RESILIENCY AGAINST EXTREME EVENTS

The objective of a power system is to provide electricity to its customers as economically as possible with an acceptable level of reliability while safeguarding the environment. Power system reliability has well-established quantitative metrics, regulatory standards, compliance incentives and jurisdictions of responsibilities. The increase in occurrence of extreme events like hurricane/tornadoes, floods, wildfires, storms, cyber-attacks etc. which are not considered in routine reliability evaluation has raised concern over the potential economic losses due to prolonged and large-scale power outages, and the overall sustainability and adaptability of power systems. This concern has motivated the utility planners, operators, and policy makers to acknowledge the importance of system resiliency against such events. However, power system resiliency evaluation is comparatively new, and lacks widely accepted standards, assessment methods and metrics. The thesis presents comparative review and analysis of power system resilience models, methodologies, and metrics in present literature and utility applications. It presents studies on two very different types of extreme events, (i) man-made and (ii) natural disaster, and analyzes their impacts on the resiliency of a distribution system. It draws conclusions on assessing and improving power system resiliency based on the impact of the extreme event, response from the distribution system, and effectiveness of the mitigating measures to tackle the extreme event. The advancement in technologies has seen an increasing integration of cyber and physical layer of the distribution system. The distribution system operators avails from the symbiotic relation of the cyber-physical layer, but the interdependency has also been its Achilles heel. The evolving infrastructure is being exposed to increase in cyber-attacks. It is of paramount importance to address the aforementioned issue by developing holistic approaches to comprehensibly upgrade the distribution system preventing huge financial loss and societal repercussions. The thesis models a type of cyber-attack using false data injection and evaluates its impact on the distribution system. It does so by developing a resilience assessment methodology accompanied by quantitative metrics. It also performs reliability evaluation to present the underlying principle and differences between reliability and resiliency. The thesis also introduces new indices to demonstrate the effectiveness of a bad-data detection strategy against such cyber-attacks. Extreme events like hurricane/tornadoes, floods, wildfires, storm, cyber-attack etc. are responsible for catastrophic damage to critical infrastructure and huge financial loss. Power distribution system is an important critical infrastructure driving the socio-economic growth of the country. High winds are one of the most common form of extreme events that are responsible for outages due to failure of poles, equipment damage etc. The thesis models effective extreme wind events with the help of fragility curves, and presents an analysis of their impacts on the distribution system. It also presents infrastructural and operational resiliency enhancement strategies and quantifies the effectiveness of the strategy with the metrics developed. It also demonstrates the dependency of resiliency of distribution system on the structural strength of transmission lines and presents measures to ensure the independency of the distribution system. The thesis presents effective resilience assessment methodology that can be valuable for distribution system utility planners, and operators to plan and ensure a resilient distribution system

Game-Theoretic and Machine-Learning Techniques for Cyber-Physical Security and Resilience in Smart Grid

The smart grid is the next-generation electrical infrastructure utilizing Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs), whose architecture is evolving from a utility-centric structure to a distributed Cyber-Physical System (CPS) integrated with a large-scale of renewable energy resources. However, meeting reliability objectives in the smart grid becomes increasingly challenging owing to the high penetration of renewable resources and changing weather conditions. Moreover, the cyber-physical attack targeted at the smart grid has become a major threat because millions of electronic devices interconnected via communication networks expose unprecedented vulnerabilities, thereby increasing the potential attack surface. This dissertation is aimed at developing novel game-theoretic and machine-learning techniques for addressing the reliability and security issues residing at multiple layers of the smart grid, including power distribution system reliability forecasting, risk assessment of cyber-physical attacks targeted at the grid, and cyber attack detection in the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) and renewable resources. This dissertation first comprehensively investigates the combined effect of various weather parameters on the reliability performance of the smart grid, and proposes a multilayer perceptron (MLP)-based framework to forecast the daily number of power interruptions in the distribution system using time series of common weather data. Regarding evaluating the risk of cyber-physical attacks faced by the smart grid, a stochastic budget allocation game is proposed to analyze the strategic interactions between a malicious attacker and the grid defender. A reinforcement learning algorithm is developed to enable the two players to reach a game equilibrium, where the optimal budget allocation strategies of the two players, in terms of attacking/protecting the critical elements of the grid, can be obtained. In addition, the risk of the cyber-physical attack can be derived based on the successful attack probability to various grid elements. Furthermore, this dissertation develops a multimodal data-driven framework for the cyber attack detection in the power distribution system integrated with renewable resources. This approach introduces the spare feature learning into an ensemble classifier for improving the detection efficiency, and implements the spatiotemporal correlation analysis for differentiating the attacked renewable energy measurements from fault scenarios. Numerical results based on the IEEE 34-bus system show that the proposed framework achieves the most accurate detection of cyber attacks reported in the literature. To address the electricity theft in the AMI, a Distributed Intelligent Framework for Electricity Theft Detection (DIFETD) is proposed, which is equipped with Benford’s analysis for initial diagnostics on large smart meter data. A Stackelberg game between utility and multiple electricity thieves is then formulated to model the electricity theft actions. Finally, a Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT) is utilized to detect potentially fraudulent meters

A comparative analysis of security risk management in Norwegian oil and gas and renewable energy companies.

With the recognised urgent need to combat climate change globally, the renewables industry has witnessed significant growth to meet ambitious net zero targets. This thesis aims to emphasize the importance of improving security risk governance to adapt to the evolving energy sector. The increasing adoption of renewable solutions and the expansion of renewable production presents a landscape characterized by uncertain and complex market dynamics. Additionally, these developments contribute to a more adverse threat environment driven by innovation in research and development (R&D), technology, and digitalization. Considering these advancements, criminal actors now have greater opportunity, motive, and increased capabilities, regardless of whether the company is focused on oil and gas, or renewable production. While damages to a renewables asset result in lower costs and less detrimental environmental impacts when compared to an offshore oil and gas asset, they can still have adverse implications on company values. Impacts to critical renewable assets have the potential to increase reliance on traditional fossil fuels, negatively impact local communities, and detrimentally impact company margins. Furthermore, due to market volatility and energy politics, nations aim to safeguard energy supply and reduce dependence on external sources. This is particularly relevant when considering the sanctions imposed on Russian oil and gas following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. As a result, energy independence and energy security have become increasingly more critical. This thesis has identified with certainty that there is a significant lack of maturity within security risk governance in renewables companies. Therefore, by comparing how both the oil and gas, and renewables sector acknowledge security and therein approach security risk management, a platform is created to offer fit-for-purpose recommendations to the renewables sector. Furthermore, this thesis acknowledges the lower margin nature of renewable production and ultimately emphasises fostering a sustainable and dynamic security culture that allows industry to strategically expand into higher security threat environments. Key words: Renewable production, Security risk, Risk Governance, Security Risk Assessments, risk tolerabilit

Tie-line modelling in interconnected synchrophasor network for monitoring grid observability, cyber intrusion and reliability

The incorporation of a tie-line between two areas may be beneficial in two ways. First, the reserve capacity of the assisting area support to the assisted area, and second, the number of Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) requirements will become smaller for complete observability of the interconnected grid. The objective function is formulated to integrate the observability and reliability analysis for the two interconnected synchrophasor networks. The effect of Zero Injection Bus (ZIB) is included in the observability constraints to reduce the number of PMUs deployed in the system. The number of optimal PMU deployments will be greater for two interconnected systems in comparison with a single area. Therefore, interconnected systems become more vulnerable to cyber risk. The paper discusses the cumulative analysis of system observability and reliability during an anomaly situation that occurs with a PMU device due to a cyber-attack. The reliability indices Interconnected System Load Interruption Probability (ISLIP) and Interconnected System Demand Not Supplied (ISDNS) are evaluated when an anomaly occurs with optimally deployed PMU in the network by including and excluding the effect of ZIB. By doing so, the most reliable location for PMU deployment can be obtained for both the area. Reliability Test System (RTS)-24 bus is used for each area to modify the test system by incorporating tie-lines between them

STRATEGIC VULNERABLITIES OF US OFFSHORE WIND ASSETS: A “NEW” US BORDER REQUIRES A LONG-TERM SECURITY PLAN

The United States has set ambitious offshore wind power generation goals in support of its 2015 Paris Agreement commitments. However, climate change and the multi-polar geopolitical landscape will likely translate into significant vulnerabilities, particularly in the Atlantic, which is the focus of this research. Government and the private sector have spent the last twenty years addressing cybersecurity of critical energy infrastructure, but physical risks from extreme weather and/or sabotage have not been adequately considered. The Great Power Competition in the Arctic will bring near-peers close to US waters, and offshore wind distributed throughout the US economic exclusion zone will be attractive targets for hybrid warfare tactics. At present, the US has limited maritime capacity to protect those assets, and the regulatory risk assessment approach focuses on minimizing a wind project’s impacts on its surroundings and other activities. The US will need a national, long-term offshore wind security plan to address risks to offshore wind, and federal agencies will need to better incorporate future security into current research, policy, and deployment efforts. Historical case studies from the US Gulf of Mexico, Texas and Ukraine help better understand the baseline for energy assets exposed to extreme weather events and hybrid warfare, and points towards challenges OSW will face in the future. This effort than looks forward at potential OSW vulnerabilities, how a multi-stakeholder body might prioritize those potential vulnerabilities through multi-criteria screening, and the need for both proactive and reactive controls. The analysis also addresses some key government entities that will need to be heavily involved. A framework is then proposed for how a multi-stakeholder process can be conducted, including a gaps analysis for adequately protecting offshore energy assets, and followed by development of a National US OSW Strategy and Roadmap for Long-Term OSW Security. The paper concludes by providing sample recommendations for short-term exercises and data collection projects that will help inform the larger and longer gaps analysis and roadmap process

Enhancing Cyber-Resiliency of DER-based SmartGrid: A Survey

The rapid development of information and communications technology has enabled the use of digital-controlled and software-driven distributed energy resources (DERs) to improve the flexibility and efficiency of power supply, and support grid operations. However, this evolution also exposes geographically-dispersed DERs to cyber threats, including hardware and software vulnerabilities, communication issues, and personnel errors, etc. Therefore, enhancing the cyber-resiliency of DER-based smart grid - the ability to survive successful cyber intrusions - is becoming increasingly vital and has garnered significant attention from both industry and academia. In this survey, we aim to provide a systematical and comprehensive review regarding the cyber-resiliency enhancement (CRE) of DER-based smart grid. Firstly, an integrated threat modeling method is tailored for the hierarchical DER-based smart grid with special emphasis on vulnerability identification and impact analysis. Then, the defense-in-depth strategies encompassing prevention, detection, mitigation, and recovery are comprehensively surveyed, systematically classified, and rigorously compared. A CRE framework is subsequently proposed to incorporate the five key resiliency enablers. Finally, challenges and future directions are discussed in details. The overall aim of this survey is to demonstrate the development trend of CRE methods and motivate further efforts to improve the cyber-resiliency of DER-based smart grid.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid for Publication Consideratio