Development of scenarios for land cover, population density, impervious cover, and conservation in New Hampshire, 2010–2100

Future changes in ecosystem services will depend heavily on changes in land cover and land use, which, in turn, are shaped by human activities. Given the challenges of predicting long-term changes in human behaviors and activities, scenarios provide a framework for simulating the long-term consequences of land-cover change on ecosystem function. As input for process-based models of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem function, we developed scenarios for land cover, population density, and impervious cover for the state of New Hampshire for 2020–2100. Key drivers of change were identified through information gathered from six sources: historical trends, existing plans relating to New Hampshire’s land-cover future, surveys, existing population scenarios, key informant interviews with diverse stakeholders, and input from subject-matter experts. Scenarios were developed in parallel with information gathering, with details added iteratively as new questions emerged. The final scenarios span a continuum from spatially dispersed development with a low value placed on ecosystem services (Backyard Amenities) to concentrated development with a high value placed on ecosystem services (the Community Amenities family). The Community family includes two population scenarios (Large Community and Small Community), to be combined with two scenarios for land cover (Protection of Wildlands and Promotion of Local Food), producing combinations that bring the total number of scenarios to six. Between Backyard Amenities and Community Amenities is a scenario based on linear extrapolations of current trends (Linear Trends). Custom models were used to simulate decadal change in land cover, population density, and impervious cover. We present raster maps and proportion of impervious cover for HUC10 watersheds under each scenario and discuss the trade-offs of our translation and modeling approach within the context of contemporary scenario projects

An energy-saving development initiative increases birth rate and childhood malnutrition in rural Ethiopia

Background: Evolutionary life history theory predicts that, in the absence of contraception, any enhancement of maternal condition can increase human fertility. Energetic trade-offs are likely to be resolved in favour of maximizing reproductive success rather than health or longevity. Here we find support for the hypothesis that development initiatives designed to improve maternal and child welfare may also incur costs associated with increased family sizes if they do not include a family planning component. Methods and Findings: Demographic and anthropometric data were collected in a rural Ethiopian community benefiting from a recent labour-saving development technology that reduces women's energetic expenditure (n = 1,976 households). Using logistic hazards models and general linear modelling techniques, we found that whilst infant mortality has declined, the birth rate has increased, causing greater scarcity of resources within households. Conclusions: This study is, to our knowledge, the first to demonstrate a link between a technological development intervention and an increase in both birth rate and childhood malnutrition. Women's nutritional status was not improved by the energy-saving technology, because energy was diverted into higher birth rates. We argue that the contribution of biological processes to increased birth rates in areas of the developing world without access to modern contraception has been overlooked. This highlights the continued need for development programmes to be multisectoral, including access to and promotion of contraception

Africa's Lagging Demographic Transition: Evidence from Exogenous Impacts of Malaria Ecology and Agricultural Technology

Much of Africa has not yet gone through a "demographic transition" to reduced mortality and fertility rates. The fact that the continent's countries remain mired in a Malthusian crisis of high mortality, high fertility, and rapid population growth (with an accompanying state of chronic extreme poverty) has been attributed to many factors ranging from the status of women, pro-natalist policies, poverty itself, and social institutions. There remains, however, a large degree of uncertainty among demographers as to the relative importance of these factors on a comparative or historical basis. Moreover, econometric estimation is complicated by endogeneity among fertility and other variables of interest. We attempt to improve estimation (particularly of the effect of the child mortality variable) by deploying exogenous variation in the ecology of malaria transmission and in agricultural productivity through the staggered introduction of Green Revolution, high-yield seed varieties. Results show that child mortality (proxied by infant mortality) is by far the most important factor among those explaining aggregate total fertility rates, followed by farm productivity. Female literacy (or schooling) and aggregate income do not seem to matter as much, comparatively.

The Inter-Relationship Between Housing and Health Outcomes

It is widely acknowledged that a strong relationship exists between environment and human physical condition, with living conditions in particular contributing to the health and well being of particular population groups. More specifically, various research conducted throughout Australia and elsewhere has concluded that there are strong linkages between housing and health. For example, Currie and Carapetis (2000) infer that poor health is directly linked to poor housing and housing infrastructure. People with unmet housing needs tend to be socio-economically disadvantaged, and experience higher death rates, poor health, and are more likely to have serious chronic illnesses . Evidence suggests strong linkages between poor housing and infrastructure, and subsequent impact on health. However, whilst much of the research conducted has found statistical associations existing between housing aspects (tenure, dwelling quality and type, home and location) and health outcomes, there has been little investigation into determining how the various aspects relate to one another for particular population groups. Further, commonalities that may exist between both indigenous and non-indigenous communities have implications for improved planning especially in the area of public housing assistance. This paper provides an in depth commentary on the literature and in particular the key health issues related to housing. More importantly, it endeavours to research specifically in an Australian context enabling a comparison and determination of the real drivers and relationships that exist between several groups – the indigenous community, and selected sectors of the non-indigenous population. It will therefore cut across several disciplines including property economics, town planning, engineering and medicine

Hinduism and ecology: Its relevance and importance

The sustenance of the environment is one of the cardinal teachings of the Hindus tradition and, in this regard, the Hindus tradition points out clearly that a good environment is indispensable for a healthy life. This work seeks to explore some of the fundamental teachings of Hinduism that point to the implications of the relationship between human beings and their environment. For instance, the dharma ecology explains the mechanism for creating respect for nature and the consequences of not doing so. Essentially, this relationship and its corresponding consequence functions in line with the Karmic law of nature. The essence of this paper is to create awareness on the impending disaster that may result from the abuse of the eco-system such as the extinction of the earth’s plants and animal species that may result from the current destruction of forests and coral reefs, and the depletion of the earth’s ozone layer, which will expose life to excessive ultraviolet radiation that is damaging to genetic materials. This work used the qualitative method of research involving secondary method of data collection such as written literature, internet materials, among others. Interestingly, education and sensitization through networking and advertising can be used in enhancing the knowledge on how to relate favourably with the eco-system

Advisor and Student Experiences of Summer Support for College-intending, Low-income high school graduates

Summer melt occurs when students who have been accepted to college and intend to enroll fail to matriculate in college in the fall semester after high school. A high rate of summer melt contributes to the lower postsecondary attainment rates of low-income students, in particular. This article presents qualitative findings from two interventions intended to reduce summer melt among low-income, urban high school graduates who had been accepted to college and indicated their intention to enroll. Results from student and counselor surveys, interviews, and focus groups point to a web of personal and contextual factors that collectively influence students' college preparation behaviors and provide insight into the areas of summer supports from which students like these can benefit. The data fit an ecological perspective, in which personal, institutional, societal, and temporal factors interact to affect students' behaviors and outcomes. A model of summer intervention shows that obstacles in completing college financing and informational tasks can lead college-intending students to re-open the question of where or whether to attend college in the fall after high school graduation. Given the pressure of concerns about how to actualize their offer of admission, students rarely engage in the anticipatory socialization activities that might help them make optimal transitions into college

Childhood Poverty and Education in Bangladesh: Policy implications for disadvantaged children

This paper is based on a recent study carried out as a part of the Visiting Research Fellowship at the UNICEF Office of Research. It offers a theoretical understanding of childhood poverty and educational exclusion, building on the empirical findings of the fieldwork carried out in Bangladesh to develop case studies addressing the questions, why do so many socio-economically disadvantaged children tend to drop out from formal secondary school, and why do some succeed? After exploring the challenges of childhood poverty and educational exclusion, it shows how the challenges could be mitigated through attention to the ecology of human development. This paper demonstrates a better understanding of childhood poverty and education in relation to the theoretical perspective through drawing together empirical evidence, summarising and interpreting it, in a more integrated manner and context. On the basis of this examination of the phenomenon, research findings have translated into recommendations for policy and practice to improve formal secondary schooling for socio-economically disadvantaged children in Bangladesh

Distribution of the brown bear (Ursus arctos marsicanus) in the Central Apennines, Italy, 2005-2014

Despite its critical conservation status, no formal estimate of the Apennine brown bear (Ursus arctos marsicanus) distribution has ever been attempted, nor a coordinated effort to compile and verify all recent occurrences has ever been ensured. We used 48331 verified bear location data collected by qualified personnel from 20052014 in the central Apennines, Italy, to estimate the current distribution of Apennine brown bears. Data sources included telemetry relocations, scats and DNA-verified hair samples, sightings, indirect signs of presence, photos from camera traps, and damage to properties. Using a grid-based zonal analysis to transform raw data density, we applied ordinary kriging and estimated a 4923 km2 main bear distribution, encompassing the historical stronghold of the bear population, and including a smaller (1460 km2) area of stable occupancy of reproducing female bears. National and Regional Parks cover 38.8% of the main bear distribution, plus an additional 19.5% encompassed by the Natura 2000 network alone. Despite some methodological and sampling problems related to spatial and temporal variation in sampling effort at the landscape scale, our approach provides an approximation of the current bear distribution that is suited to frequently update the distribution map. Future monitoring of this bear population would benefit from estimating detectability across a range on environmental and sampling variables, and from intensifying the collection of bear presence data in the peripheral portions of the distribution

Sustainable Development and Integral Ecology: The Philippine Ecological Experience

Two of the most important concepts that are related to environmental care and our present ecological situation are sustainable development and integral ecology. Pope Francis in his encyclical letter Laudato Si’ focused on these concepts and stressed the need to safeguard our environment to ensure that while we meet the needs of the present generation we also do not compromise the needs of the future generation. He proposes a development that is both sustainable and integral, a development that is authentically just and for the common good. In this paper I discuss the ideals of sustainable development and integral ecology as expounded by various scholars and from both the western and oriental perspectives and as discussed in Pope Francis’ Laudato Si’. The last section of the paper highlights the Philippine ecological situation to serve not as an ideal but a kind of mirror as to what is happening in a developing country like the Philippines which is situated in an area where different ecological factors converge. The Philippines has always been at the center of the many ecological crises mainly because of human and natural factors. In the end, I stress that sustainable development must be premised on integral ecology and this should be the case not only in the Philippines but in the entire planet