Polyhedral computational geometry for averaging metric phylogenetic trees

This paper investigates the computational geometry relevant to calculations of the Frechet mean and variance for probability distributions on the phylogenetic tree space of Billera, Holmes and Vogtmann, using the theory of probability measures on spaces of nonpositive curvature developed by Sturm. We show that the combinatorics of geodesics with a specified fixed endpoint in tree space are determined by the location of the varying endpoint in a certain polyhedral subdivision of tree space. The variance function associated to a finite subset of tree space has a fixed $C^\infty$ algebraic formula within each cell of the corresponding subdivision, and is continuously differentiable in the interior of each orthant of tree space. We use this subdivision to establish two iterative methods for producing sequences that converge to the Frechet mean: one based on Sturm's Law of Large Numbers, and another based on descent algorithms for finding optima of smooth functions on convex polyhedra. We present properties and biological applications of Frechet means and extend our main results to more general globally nonpositively curved spaces composed of Euclidean orthants.Comment: 43 pages, 6 figures; v2: fixed typos, shortened Sections 1 and 5, added counter example for polyhedrality of vistal subdivision in general CAT(0) cubical complexes; v1: 43 pages, 5 figure

Uncertainty in phylogenetic tree estimates

Estimating phylogenetic trees is an important problem in evolutionary biology, environmental policy and medicine. Although trees are estimated, their uncertainties are discarded by mathematicians working in tree space. Here we explicitly model the multivariate uncertainty of tree estimates. We consider both the cases where uncertainty information arises extrinsically (through covariate information) and intrinsically (through the tree estimates themselves). The importance of accounting for tree uncertainty in tree space is demonstrated in two case studies. In the first instance, differences between gene trees are small relative to their uncertainties, while in the second, the differences are relatively large. Our main goal is visualization of tree uncertainty, and we demonstrate advantages of our method with respect to reproducibility, speed and preservation of topological differences compared to visualization based on multidimensional scaling. The proposal highlights that phylogenetic trees are estimated in an extremely high-dimensional space, resulting in uncertainty information that cannot be discarded. Most importantly, it is a method that allows biologists to diagnose whether differences between gene trees are biologically meaningful, or due to uncertainty in estimation.Comment: Final version accepted to Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistic