5 research outputs found

    Planning under uncertainty, ensembles of disturbance trees and kernelized discrete action spaces

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    peer reviewedOptimizing decisions on an ensemble of incomplete disturbance trees and aggregating their first stage decisions has been shown as a promising approach to (model-based) planning under uncertainty in large continuous action spaces and in small discrete ones. The present paper extends this approach and deals with large but highly structured action spaces, through a kernel-based aggregation scheme. The technique is applied to a test problem with a discrete action space of 6561 elements adapted from the NIPS 2005 SensorNetwork benchmark

    Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence: Proceedings of the Thirty-Fourth Conference

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    Full Proceedings, 2018

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    Full conference proceedings for the 2018 International Building Physics Association Conference hosted at Syracuse University

    An Initial Framework Assessing the Safety of Complex Systems

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    Trabajo presentado en la Conference on Complex Systems, celebrada online del 7 al 11 de diciembre de 2020.Atmospheric blocking events, that is large-scale nearly stationary atmospheric pressure patterns, are often associated with extreme weather in the mid-latitudes, such as heat waves and cold spells which have significant consequences on ecosystems, human health and economy. The high impact of blocking events has motivated numerous studies. However, there is not yet a comprehensive theory explaining their onset, maintenance and decay and their numerical prediction remains a challenge. In recent years, a number of studies have successfully employed complex network descriptions of fluid transport to characterize dynamical patterns in geophysical flows. The aim of the current work is to investigate the potential of so called Lagrangian flow networks for the detection and perhaps forecasting of atmospheric blocking events. The network is constructed by associating nodes to regions of the atmosphere and establishing links based on the flux of material between these nodes during a given time interval. One can then use effective tools and metrics developed in the context of graph theory to explore the atmospheric flow properties. In particular, Ser-Giacomi et al. [1] showed how optimal paths in a Lagrangian flow network highlight distinctive circulation patterns associated with atmospheric blocking events. We extend these results by studying the behavior of selected network measures (such as degree, entropy and harmonic closeness centrality)at the onset of and during blocking situations, demonstrating their ability to trace the spatio-temporal characteristics of these events.This research was conducted as part of the CAFE (Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes) Innovative Training Network which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 813844
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