Cardiovascular/stroke risk predictive calculators: a comparison between statistical and machine learning models

Background: Statistically derived cardiovascular risk calculators (CVRC) that use conventional risk factors, generally underestimate or overestimate the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) or stroke events primarily due to lack of integration of plaque burden. This study investigates the role of machine learning (ML)-based CVD/stroke risk calculators (CVRCML) and compares against statistically derived CVRC (CVRCStat) based on (I) conventional factors or (II) combined conventional with plaque burden (integrated factors). Methods: The proposed study is divided into 3 parts: (I) statistical calculator: initially, the 10-year CVD/stroke risk was computed using 13 types of CVRCStat (without and with plaque burden) and binary risk stratification of the patients was performed using the predefined thresholds and risk classes; (II) ML calculator: using the same risk factors (without and with plaque burden), as adopted in 13 different CVRCStat, the patients were again risk-stratified using CVRCML based on support vector machine (SVM) and finally; (III) both types of calculators were evaluated using AUC based on ROC analysis, which was computed using combination of predicted class and endpoint equivalent to CVD/stroke events. Results: An Institutional Review Board approved 202 patients (156 males and 46 females) of Japanese ethnicity were recruited for this study with a mean age of 69±11 years. The AUC for 13 different types of CVRCStat calculators were: AECRS2.0 (AUC 0.83, P<0.001), QRISK3 (AUC 0.72, P<0.001), WHO (AUC 0.70, P<0.001), ASCVD (AUC 0.67, P<0.001), FRScardio (AUC 0.67, P<0.01), FRSstroke (AUC 0.64, P<0.001), MSRC (AUC 0.63, P=0.03), UKPDS56 (AUC 0.63, P<0.001), NIPPON (AUC 0.63, P<0.001), PROCAM (AUC 0.59, P<0.001), RRS (AUC 0.57, P<0.001), UKPDS60 (AUC 0.53, P<0.001), and SCORE (AUC 0.45, P<0.001), while the AUC for the CVRCML with integrated risk factors (AUC 0.88, P<0.001), a 42% increase in performance. The overall risk-stratification accuracy for the CVRCML with integrated risk factors was 92.52% which was higher compared all the other CVRCStat. Conclusions: ML-based CVD/stroke risk calculator provided a higher predictive ability of 10-year CVD/ stroke compared to the 13 different types of statistically derived risk calculators including integrated model AECRS 2.0

Examination of unremitting kidney illness by utilizing machine learning classifiers

Chronic kidney disease is a rising health issue that affects millions of people worldwide. Early detection and characterization of this disease is essential for effective management and control. This disease is associated with several serious health risks, such as cardiovascular disease, increased risk of stroke, and end-stage renal disease, which can be effectively prevented by early detection and treatment. Medical scientists rely on machine learning algorithms to diagnose the disease accurately at its outset. Recently, adding value to healthcare is being accomplished through the integration of machine learning algorithms into mobile health solution. Considering this, this paper proposes a predictive model of three machine learning classifiers, including Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, and Multilayer Perceptron for chronic kidney disease prediction. The performance of the model was assessed using confusion matrix and executed in popular machine learning software tools such as WEKA and Rapid Minor. The study found that support vector machine yielded the highest accuracy rate of 98% in predicting chronic kidney disease in WEKA among other standard classifiers by using 10-fold cross validation. In addition, the proposed prediction model has been compared with existing models in terms of accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. The experimental results indicate that the proposed predictive model shows promising results. These findings could integrate with the development of mobile health solution and other innovative approaches to prevent and treat this debilitating condition.info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersio