Multi-time-horizon Solar Forecasting Using Recurrent Neural Network

The non-stationarity characteristic of the solar power renders traditional point forecasting methods to be less useful due to large prediction errors. This results in increased uncertainties in the grid operation, thereby negatively affecting the reliability and increased cost of operation. This research paper proposes a unified architecture for multi-time-horizon predictions for short and long-term solar forecasting using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN). The paper describes an end-to-end pipeline to implement the architecture along with the methods to test and validate the performance of the prediction model. The results demonstrate that the proposed method based on the unified architecture is effective for multi-horizon solar forecasting and achieves a lower root-mean-squared prediction error compared to the previous best-performing methods which use one model for each time-horizon. The proposed method enables multi-horizon forecasts with real-time inputs, which have a high potential for practical applications in the evolving smart grid.Comment: Accepted at: IEEE Energy Conversion Congress and Exposition (ECCE 2018), 7 pages, 5 figures, code available: sakshi-mishra.github.i

Computation of core losses in electrical machines using improved models for laminated steel

Two new models for specific power losses in cold-rolled motor lamination steel are described together with procedures for coefficient identification from standard multifrequency Epstein or single sheet tests. The eddy-current and hysteresis loss coefficients of the improved models are dependent on induction (flux density) and/or frequency, and the errors are substantially lower than those of conventional models over a very wide range of sinusoidal excitation, from 20 Hz to 2 kHz and from 0.05 up to 2 T. The model that considers the coefficients to be variable, with the exception of the hysteresis loss power coefficient that has a constant value of 2, is superior in terms of applicability and phenomenological support. Also included are a comparative study of the material models on three samples of typical steel, mathematical formulations for the extension from the frequency to the time domain, and examples of validation from electrical machine studies

Quantifying Mechanical Properties of Automotive Steels with Deep Learning Based Computer Vision Algorithms

This paper demonstrates that the instrumented indentation test (IIT), together with a trained artificial neural network (ANN), has the capability to characterize the mechanical properties of the local parts of a welded steel structure such as a weld nugget or heat affected zone. Aside from force-indentation depth curves generated from the IIT, the profile of the indented surface deformed after the indentation test also has a strong correlation with the materials’ plastic behavior. The profile of the indented surface was used as the training dataset to design an ANN to determine the material parameters of the welded zones. The deformation of the indented surface in three dimensions shown in images were analyzed with the computer vision algorithms and the obtained data were employed to train the ANN for the characterization of the mechanical properties. Moreover, this method was applied to the images taken with a simple light microscope from the surface of a specimen. Therefore, it is possible to quantify the mechanical properties of the automotive steels with the four independent methods: (1) force-indentation depth curve; (2) profile of the indented surface; (3) analyzing of the 3D-measurement image; and (4) evaluation of the images taken by a simple light microscope. The results show that there is a very good agreement between the material parameters obtained from the trained ANN and the experimental uniaxial tensile test. The results present that the mechanical properties of an unknown steel can be determined by only analyzing the images taken from its surface after pushing a simple indenter into its surface

Aeronautical Engineering. A continuing bibliography, supplement 115

This bibliography lists 273 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in October 1979

Power System Parameters Forecasting Using Hilbert-Huang Transform and Machine Learning

A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis function neural network and support vector regression. Apart from introduction and references the paper is organized as follows. The section 2 presents the background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learning-based algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six the experimental results in the following electric power problems are presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for the wind speed and direction forecasting