Smooth it Like the “Joneses?” Estimating Peer-Group Effects in Intertemporal Consumption Choice

Recent theoretical contributions have suggested peer-group effects as a potential explanation for several puzzles in macroeconomics, but their empirical relevance for intertemporal consumption choice is an open question. We derive an extension of the standard life-cycle model that allows for consumption externalities. In this framework, we propose a social multiplier approach to distinguish true externalities from merely correlated effects. Estimating our model using US panel data, we find strong predictable co-movement of household consumption within peer groups. Although much of this co-movement reflects correlated effects only, there is statistically significant evidence for moderate consumption externalities across several plausible peer-group specifications.

Do the "Joneses" really matter? Peer-group versus correlated effects in intertemporal consumption choice

Recent theoretical contributions have suggested consumption externalities, or peergroup effects, as a potential explanation for some of the puzzles in macroeconomics and finance. However, the empirical relevance of peer effects for intertemporal consumption choice is a completely open question. To shed some light on the issue, we derive an extension of the standard life-cycle model that allows for consumption externalities. The analysis is complicated by the challenge of disentangling actual peer effects from merely correlated effects operating through common features or shocks within peer groups. We show how to conduct reliable inference under these circumstances based on within-group equilibrium conditions that give rise to a social multiplier. This approach can be understood as an adaptation of Manski's "reflection problem framework" to the case of dynamic models with endogenous regressors. We estimate our model using US panel data from the PSID. While there is strong predictable consumption co-movement within peer groups, the evidence for true consumption externalities vanishes once correlated effects are adequately accounted for.Consumption, Life-Cycle Model, Peer Effects, Reflection Problem

Congestion management with aggregated delivery of flexibility using distributed energy resources

Increasing penetrations of small scale electricity generation and storage technologies are making an important contribution to the decentralisation and decarbonisation of power system control and operation. Although not currently realised, coordination of local distributed energy resources (DERs) and a greater degree of demand flexibility through digital aggregation, offer the potential to lower the cost of energy at source and to enable remuneration for consumer participation, addressing the rising costs of energy supply, which impacts strongly on all consumers. Methods are required to manage potential distribution network constraints caused by flexible DERs, as well as for determining the risk to delivery of flexibility from these DERs for aggregators. A heuristic network flexibility dispatch methodology is proposed, which can be used to calculate the probability of constraints, and any required adjustments of flexible agent positions to resolve them, at half hourly resolution. The aggregator can use this methodology to manage their portfolio risk, while a distribution system operator can estimate required flexibility to manage constraints down to low voltage level

Wide-Area Time-Synchronized Closed-Loop Control of Power Systems And Decentralized Active Distribution Networks

The rapidly expanding power system grid infrastructure and the need to reduce the occurrence of major blackouts and prevention or hardening of systems against cyber-attacks, have led to increased interest in the improved resilience of the electrical grid. Distributed and decentralized control have been widely applied to computer science research. However, for power system applications, the real-time application of decentralized and distributed control algorithms introduce several challenges. In this dissertation, new algorithms and methods for decentralized control, protection and energy management of Wide Area Monitoring, Protection and Control (WAMPAC) and the Active Distribution Network (ADN) are developed to improve the resiliency of the power system. To evaluate the findings of this dissertation, a laboratory-scale integrated Wide WAMPAC and ADN control platform was designed and implemented. The developed platform consists of phasor measurement units (PMU), intelligent electronic devices (IED) and programmable logic controllers (PLC). On top of the designed hardware control platform, a multi-agent cyber-physical interoperability viii framework was developed for real-time verification of the developed decentralized and distributed algorithms using local wireless and Internet-based cloud communication. A novel real-time multiagent system interoperability testbed was developed to enable utility independent private microgrids standardized interoperability framework and define behavioral models for expandability and plug-and-play operation. The state-of-theart power system multiagent framework is improved by providing specific attributes and a deliberative behavior modeling capability. The proposed multi-agent framework is validated in a laboratory based testbed involving developed intelligent electronic device prototypes and actual microgrid setups. Experimental results are demonstrated for both decentralized and distributed control approaches. A new adaptive real-time protection and remedial action scheme (RAS) method using agent-based distributed communication was developed for autonomous hybrid AC/DC microgrids to increase resiliency and continuous operability after fault conditions. Unlike the conventional consecutive time delay-based overcurrent protection schemes, the developed technique defines a selectivity mechanism considering the RAS of the microgrid after fault instant based on feeder characteristics and the location of the IEDs. The experimental results showed a significant improvement in terms of resiliency of microgrids through protection using agent-based distributed communication

Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies: Taking Stock of the Issues

In this paper we present an overview of a number of issues relating to the equilibrium exchange rates of transition economies of the former soviet bloc. In particular, we present a critical overview of the various methods available for calculating equilibrium exchange rates and discuss how useful they are likely to be for the transition economies. Amongst our findings is the result that the trend appreciation usually observed for the exchange rates of these economies is affected by factors other than the usual Balassa-Samuelson effect, such as the behaviour of the real exchange rate of the open sector and regulated prices. We then consider three main sources of uncertainty relating to the implementation of an equilibrium exchange rate model, namely: differences in the theoretical underpinnings; differences in the econometric estimation techniques; and differences relating to the time series and cross-sectional dimensions of the data. The ensuing three-dimensional space of real misalignments is probably a useful tool in determining the direction of a possible misalignment rather than its precise size.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40179/3/wp793.pd

Elastic Business Process Management: State of the Art and Open Challenges for BPM in the Cloud

With the advent of cloud computing, organizations are nowadays able to react rapidly to changing demands for computational resources. Not only individual applications can be hosted on virtual cloud infrastructures, but also complete business processes. This allows the realization of so-called elastic processes, i.e., processes which are carried out using elastic cloud resources. Despite the manifold benefits of elastic processes, there is still a lack of solutions supporting them. In this paper, we identify the state of the art of elastic Business Process Management with a focus on infrastructural challenges. We conceptualize an architecture for an elastic Business Process Management System and discuss existing work on scheduling, resource allocation, monitoring, decentralized coordination, and state management for elastic processes. Furthermore, we present two representative elastic Business Process Management Systems which are intended to counter these challenges. Based on our findings, we identify open issues and outline possible research directions for the realization of elastic processes and elastic Business Process Management.Comment: Please cite as: S. Schulte, C. Janiesch, S. Venugopal, I. Weber, and P. Hoenisch (2015). Elastic Business Process Management: State of the Art and Open Challenges for BPM in the Cloud. Future Generation Computer Systems, Volume NN, Number N, NN-NN., http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.future.2014.09.00

Energy patterns for business model innovation

Several transformations are occurring in the energy sector, from new emerging technologies, governmental pressure for decarbonisation and clean energy targets, to new market regulations. This changes impact on how the energy is produced and distributed to consumers, increasing the urge for energy utilities to innovate their traditional established business models, to remain competitive in the energy landscape. Business model innovation is essential to organizational performance, and it has the power to change the logic of entire industries. Business model patterns are a promising tool to support business model innovation, which can be described as solutions to recurrent problems in a business model context. Although there are several published collections of business model patterns, a structured overview on energy patterns in order to support business model innovation in the energy field is missing. In the interest of filling the gap between business models and the energy sector, an energy pattern taxonomy for business model innovation was created. Applying the modified-Delphi card sorting methodology by Paul (2008), in an iterative way, 1 expert in business models and in the energy field was asked to perform a card sorting activity in a model revised and validated by 2 other experts in a previous phase, resulting in a taxonomy with 51 energy patterns organized in 10 meaningful groups. This pattern taxonomy is useful to help energy utilities to innovate and reform their business models, and it can be used from academics and scholars to managers to innovate the business models of their firms.O sector da energia está a sofrer diversas transformações, desde novas tecnologias emergentes, pressões governamentais face a metas de descarbonização e energia limpa, a novas regulações do mercado. Estas mudanças impactam na forma como a energia é produzida e distribuída aos consumidores, aumentado a urgência de inovação das modelos de negócio estabelecidos das utilities energéticas, de forma a manter a sua competitividade no sector. A inovação de modelos de negócio é essencial ao desempenho das organizações, tendo o poder de afectar a lógica de negócio de todo o sector. Padrões de modelos de negócio são uma ferramenta promissora para apoiar a inovação, sendo descritos como soluções já comprovadas para problemas recorrentes. Apesar de existiram diversas colecções de padrões de modelos de negócio na literatura, está em falta uma visão global e estruturada sobre padrões de energia. No interesse de preencher a lacuna entre modelos de negócio e o sector energético, foi criada uma taxonomia de padrões de energia para apoiar inovação no sector. Aplicando a metodologia Delphi modificada (Paul, 2008), de uma forma iterativa, 1 especialista em modelos de negócio e em energia realizou uma actividade de card sortig num modelo revisto e validado por 2 outros especialistas, numa fase anterior, resultando numa taxonomia com 51 padrões organizados em 10 grupos significativos. A taxonomia final resultante será útil para apoiar as utilities energéticas a inovar e reformar os seus modelos de negócio, podendo ser usada desde académicos a gestores com o objectivo de inovar os seus modelos de negócio