Pattern classification with mixtures of weighted least-squares support vector machine experts

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers are high-performance classification models devised to comply with the structural risk minimization principle and to properly exploit the kernel artifice of nonlinearly mapping input data into high-dimensional feature spaces toward the automatic construction of better discriminating linear decision boundaries. Among several SVM variants, Least-Squares SVMs (LS-SVMs) have gained increased attention recently due mainly to their computationally attractive properties coming as the direct result of applying a modified formulation that makes use of a sum-squared-error cost function jointly with equality, instead of inequality, constraints. In this work, we present a flexible hybrid approach aimed at augmenting the proficiency of LS-SVM classifiers with regard to accuracy/generalization as well as to hyperparameter calibration issues. Such approach, named as Mixtures of Weighted Least-Squares Support Vector Machine Experts, centers around the fusion of the weighted variant of LS-SVMs with Mixtures of Experts models. After the formal characterization of the novel learning framework, simulation results obtained with respect to both binary and multiclass pattern classification problems are reported, ratifying the suitability of the novel hybrid approach in improving the performance issues considered.187843860Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)FAPESP [04/09597-0]CNPq [23661-04]CNPq [303214/2007-0

Automating Large-Scale Simulation Calibration to Real-World Sensor Data

Many key decisions and design policies are made using sophisticated computer simulations. However, these sophisticated computer simulations have several major problems. The two main issues are 1) gaps between the simulation model and the actual structure, and 2) limitations of the modeling engine\u27s capabilities. This dissertation\u27s goal is to address these simulation deficiencies by presenting a general automated process for tuning simulation inputs such that simulation output matches real world measured data. The automated process involves the following key components -- 1) Identify a model that accurately estimates the real world simulation calibration target from measured sensor data; 2) Identify the key real world measurements that best estimate the simulation calibration target; 3) Construct a mapping from the most useful real world measurements to actual simulation outputs; 4) Build fast and effective simulation approximation models that predict simulation output using simulation input; 5) Build a relational model that captures inter variable dependencies between simulation inputs and outputs; and finally 6) Use the relational model to estimate the simulation input variables from the mapped sensor data, and use either the simulation model or approximate simulation model to fine tune input simulation parameter estimates towards the calibration system. The work in this dissertation individually validates and completes five out of the six calibration components with respect to the residential energy domain. Step 1 is satisfied by identifying the best model for predicting next hour residential electrical consumption, the calibration target. Step 2 is completed by identifying the most important sensors for predicting residential electrical consumption, the real world measurements. While step 3 is completed by domain experts, step 4 is addressed by using techniques from the Big Data machine learning domain to build approximations for the EnergyPlus (E+) simulator. Step 5\u27s solution leverages the same Big Data machine learning techniques to build a relational model that describes how the simulator\u27s variables are probabilistically related. Finally, step 6 is partially demonstrated by using the relational model to estimate simulation parameters for E+ simulations with known ground truth simulation inputs