Cognitive and mood assessment tools for use in stroke

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Clinical trial metadata:Defining and extracting metadata on the design, conduct, results and costs of 125 randomised clinical trials funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

Background:  By 2011, the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) programme had published the results of over 100 trials with another 220 in progress. The aim of the project was to develop and pilot ‘metadata’ on clinical trials funded by the HTA programme.   Objectives: The aim of the project was to develop and pilot questions describing clinical trials funded by the HTA programme in terms of it meeting the needs of the NHS with scientifically robust studies. The objectives were to develop relevant classification systems and definitions for use in answering relevant questions and to assess their utility.   Data sources: Published monographs and internal HTA documents.   Review methods: A database was developed, ‘populated’ using retrospective data and used to answer questions under six prespecified themes. Questions were screened for feasibility in terms of data availability and/or ease of extraction. Answers were assessed by the authors in terms of completeness, success of the classification system used and resources required. Each question was scored to be retained, amended or dropped.    Results: One hundred and twenty-five randomised trials were included in the database from 109 monographs. Neither the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number nor the term ‘randomised trial’ in the title proved a reliable way of identifying randomised trials. Only limited data were available on how the trials aimed to meet the needs of the NHS. Most trials were shown to follow their protocols but updates were often necessary as hardly any trials recruited as planned. Details were often lacking on planned statistical analyses, but we did not have access to the relevant statistical plans. Almost all the trials reported on cost-effectiveness, often in terms of both the primary outcome and quality-adjusted life-years. The cost of trials was shown to depend on the number of centres and the duration of the trial. Of the 78 questions explored, 61 were well answered, 33 fully with 28 requiring amendment were the analysis updated. The other 17 could not be answered with readily available data.   Limitations: The study was limited by being confined to 125 randomised trials by one funder.   Conclusions: Metadata on randomised controlled trials can be expanded to include aspects of design, performance, results and costs. The HTA programme should continue and extend the work reported here

Exploiting the potential of large databases of electronic health records for research using rapid search algorithms and an intuitive query interface.

Objective: UK primary care databases, which contain diagnostic, demographic and prescribing information for millions of patients geographically representative of the UK, represent a significant resource for health services and clinical research. They can be used to identify patients with a specified disease or condition (phenotyping) and to investigate patterns of diagnosis and symptoms. Currently, extracting such information manually is time-consuming and requires considerable expertise. In order to exploit more fully the potential of these large and complex databases, our interdisciplinary team developed generic methods allowing access to different types of user. Materials and methods: Using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink database, we have developed an online user-focused system (TrialViz), which enables users interactively to select suitable medical general practices based on two criteria: suitability of the patient base for the intended study (phenotyping) and measures of data quality. Results: An end-to-end system, underpinned by an innovative search algorithm, allows the user to extract information in near real-time via an intuitive query interface and to explore this information using interactive visualization tools. A usability evaluation of this system produced positive results. Discussion: We present the challenges and results in the development of TrialViz and our plans for its extension for wider applications of clinical research. Conclusions: Our fast search algorithms and simple query algorithms represent a significant advance for users of clinical research databases

The relative clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of three contrasting approaches to partner notification for curable sexually transmitted infections: a cluster randomised trial in primary care

Since 1998 there has been a substantial increase in reported cases of sexually transmitted infection (STI), most strikingly in the 16–24 years age group.1 Across genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics in the UK in 2007, young people accounted for 65% of chlamydia cases, 50% of cases of genital warts and 50% of gonorrhoea infections.1 Chlamydia is the most common STI in under-25s. Since 1998, the rate of diagnosed chlamydia has more than doubled in the 16–24 years age group (from 447 per 100,000 in 1998 to 1102 per 100,000 in 2007). This may be because of a combination of a higher proportion of young people testing, improved diagnostic methods and increased risk behaviour.1 Chlamydia infection can frequently go undetected, particularly in women, as it is often asymptomatic.1 If left untreated, chlamydia can lead to pelvic inflammatory disease and infertility in women. This highlights the importance of testing this higher-risk age group to ensure prompt diagnosis and treatment. It is estimated that 11–12% of 16- to 19-year-olds presenting at a GUM clinic with an acute STI will become reinfected within a year.2 In order to minimise reinfection, preventative measures are required, including effective methods of notifying partners to ensure rapid diagnosis and treatment and reduce the likelihood of index patients being reinfected from the same source

Electronic health records to facilitate clinical research

Electronic health records (EHRs) provide opportunities to enhance patient care, embed performance measures in clinical practice, and facilitate clinical research. Concerns have been raised about the increasing recruitment challenges in trials, burdensome and obtrusive data collection, and uncertain generalizability of the results. Leveraging electronic health records to counterbalance these trends is an area of intense interest. The initial applications of electronic health records, as the primary data source is envisioned for observational studies, embedded pragmatic or post-marketing registry-based randomized studies, or comparative effectiveness studies. Advancing this approach to randomized clinical trials, electronic health records may potentially be used to assess study feasibility, to facilitate patient recruitment, and streamline data collection at baseline and follow-up. Ensuring data security and privacy, overcoming the challenges associated with linking diverse systems and maintaining infrastructure for repeat use of high quality data, are some of the challenges associated with using electronic health records in clinical research. Collaboration between academia, industry, regulatory bodies, policy makers, patients, and electronic health record vendors is critical for the greater use of electronic health records in clinical research. This manuscript identifies the key steps required to advance the role of electronic health records in cardiovascular clinical research

Undiagnosed dementia in primary care: A record linkage study

BackgroundThe number of people living with dementia is greater than the number with a diagnosis of dementia recorded in primary care. This suggests that a significant number are living with dementia that is undiagnosed. Little is known about this group and there is little quantitative evidence regarding the consequences of diagnosis for people with dementia.ObjectivesThe aims of this study were to (1) describe the population meeting the criteria for dementia but without diagnosis, (2) identify predictors of being diagnosed and (3) estimate the effect of diagnosis on mortality, move to residential care, social participation and well-being.DesignA record linkage study of a subsample of participants (n = 598) from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study II (CFAS II) (n = 7796), an existing cohort study of the population of England aged ≥ 65 years, with standardised validated assessment of dementia and consent to access medical records.Data sourcesData on dementia diagnoses from each participant’s primary care record and covariate and outcome data from CFAS II.SettingA population-representative cohort of people aged ≥ 65 years from three regions of England between 2008 and 2011.ParticipantsA total of 598 CFAS II participants, which included all those with dementia who consented to medical record linkage (n = 449) and a stratified sample without dementia (n = 149).Main outcome measuresThe main outcome was presence of a diagnosis of dementia in each participant’s primary care record at the time of their CFAS II assessment(s). Other outcomes were date of death, cognitive performance scores, move to residential care, hospital stays and social participation.ResultsAmong people with dementia, the proportion with a diagnosis in primary care was 34% in 2008–11 and 44% in 2011–13. In both periods, a further 21% had a record of a concern or a referral but no diagnosis. The likelihood of having a recorded diagnosis increased with severity of impairment in memory and orientation, but not with other cognitive impairment. In multivariable analysis, those aged ≥ 90 years and those age

Randomised controlled trials of complex interventions and large-scale transformation of services

Complex interventions and large-scale transformations of services are necessary to meet the health-care challenges of the 21st century. However, the evaluation of these types of interventions is challenging and requires methodological development. Innovations such as cluster randomised controlled trials, stepped-wedge designs, and non-randomised evaluations provide options to meet the needs of decision-makers. Adoption of theory and logic models can help clarify causal assumptions, and process evaluation can assist in understanding delivery in context. Issues of implementation must also be considered throughout intervention design and evaluation to ensure that results can be scaled for population benefit. Relevance requires evaluations conducted under real-world conditions, which in turn requires a pragmatic attitude to design. The increasing complexity of interventions and evaluations threatens the ability of researchers to meet the needs of decision-makers for rapid results. Improvements in efficiency are thus crucial, with electronic health records offering significant potential

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the growth and rupture rates of small abdominal aortic aneurysms: implications for surveillance intervals and their cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Small abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs; 3.0-5.4 cm in diameter) are usually asymptomatic and managed by regular ultrasound surveillance until they grow to a diameter threshold (commonly 5.5 cm) at which surgical intervention is considered. The choice of appropriate surveillance intervals is governed by the growth and rupture rates of small AAAs, as well as their relative cost-effectiveness. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this series of studies was to inform the evidence base for small AAA surveillance strategies. This was achieved by literature review, collation and analysis of individual patient data, a focus group and health economic modelling. DATA SOURCES: We undertook systematic literature reviews of growth rates and rupture rates of small AAAs. The databases MEDLINE, EMBASE on OvidSP, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials 2009 Issue 4, ClinicalTrials.gov, and controlled-trials.com were searched from inception up until the end of 2009. We also obtained individual data on 15,475 patients from 18 surveillance studies. REVIEW METHODS: Systematic reviews of publications identified 15 studies providing small AAA growth rates, and 14 studies with small AAA rupture rates, up to December 2009 (later updated to September 2012). We developed statistical methods to analyse individual surveillance data, including the effects of patient characteristics, to inform the choice of surveillance intervals and provide inputs for health economic modelling. We updated an existing health economic model of AAA screening to address the cost-effectiveness of different surveillance intervals. RESULTS: In the literature reviews, the mean growth rate was 2.3 mm/year and the reported rupture rates varied between 0 and 1.6 ruptures per 100 person-years. Growth rates increased markedly with aneurysm diameter, but insufficient detail was available to guide surveillance intervals. Based on individual surveillance data, for each 0.5-cm increase in AAA diameter, growth rates increased by about 0.5 mm/year and rupture rates doubled. To control the risk of exceeding 5.5 cm to below 10% in men, on average a 7-year surveillance interval is sufficient for a 3.0-cm aneurysm, whereas an 8-month interval is necessary for a 5.0-cm aneurysm. To control the risk of rupture to below 1%, the corresponding estimated surveillance intervals are 9 years and 17 months. Average growth rates were higher in smokers (by 0.35 mm/year) and lower in patients with diabetes (by 0.51 mm/year). Rupture rates were almost fourfold higher in women than men, doubled in current smokers and increased with higher blood pressure. Increasing the surveillance interval from 1 to 2 years for the smallest aneurysms (3.0-4.4 cm) decreased costs and led to a positive net benefit. For the larger aneurysms (4.5-5.4 cm), increasing surveillance intervals from 3 to 6 months led to equivalent cost-effectiveness. LIMITATIONS: There were no clear reasons why the growth rates varied substantially between studies. Uniform diagnostic criteria for rupture were not available. The long-term cost-effectiveness results may be susceptible to the modelling assumptions made. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance intervals of several years are clinically acceptable for men with AAAs in the range 3.0-4.0 cm. Intervals of around 1 year are suitable for 4.0-4.9-cm AAAs, whereas intervals of 6 months would be acceptable for 5.0-5.4-cm AAAs. These intervals are longer than those currently employed in the UK AAA screening programmes. Lengthening surveillance intervals for the smallest aneurysms was also shown to be cost-effective. Future work should focus on optimising surveillance intervals for women, studying whether or not the threshold for surgery should depend on patient characteristics, evaluating the usefulness of surveillance for those with aortic diameters of 2.5-2.9 cm, and developing interventions that may reduce the growth or rupture rates of small AAAs. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme

Simulated Clinical Trias: some design issues

Simulation is widely used to investigate real-world systems in a large number of fields, including clinical trials for drug development, since real trials are costly, frequently fail and may lead to serious side effects. This paper is a survey of the statistical issues arising in these simulated trials. We illustrate the broad applicability of this investigation tool by means of examples selected from the literature. We discuss the aims and the peculiarities of the simulation models used in this context, including a brief mention of the use of metamodels. Of special interest is the topic of the design of the virtual experiments, stressing similarities and differences with the design of real life trials. Since it is important for a computerized model to possess a satisfactory range of accuracy consistent with its intended application, real data provided by physical experiments are used to confirm the simulator : we illustrate validating techniques through a number of examples. We end the paper with some challenging questions on the scientificity, ethics and effectiveness of simulation in the clinical research, and the interesting research problem of how to integrate simulated and physical experiments in a clinical context.Simulation models; pharmacokinetics; pharmacodynamics; model validation; experimental design, ethics. Modelli di simulazione; farmacocinetica; farmacodinamica; validazione; disegno degli esperimenti; etica.