68,045 research outputs found
Social Learning with Partial Information Sharing
This work addresses the problem of sharing partial information within social
learning strategies. In traditional social learning, agents solve a distributed
multiple hypothesis testing problem by performing two operations at each
instant: first, agents incorporate information from private observations to
form their beliefs over a set of hypotheses; second, agents combine the
entirety of their beliefs locally among neighbors. Within a sufficiently
informative environment and as long as the connectivity of the network allows
information to diffuse across agents, these algorithms enable agents to learn
the true hypothesis. Instead of sharing the entirety of their beliefs, this
work considers the case in which agents will only share their beliefs regarding
one hypothesis of interest, with the purpose of evaluating its validity, and
draws conditions under which this policy does not affect truth learning. We
propose two approaches for sharing partial information, depending on whether
agents behave in a self-aware manner or not. The results show how different
learning regimes arise, depending on the approach employed and on the inherent
characteristics of the inference problem. Furthermore, the analysis
interestingly points to the possibility of deceiving the network, as long as
the evaluated hypothesis of interest is close enough to the truth
PocketCare: Tracking the Flu with Mobile Phones using Partial Observations of Proximity and Symptoms
Mobile phones provide a powerful sensing platform that researchers may adopt
to understand proximity interactions among people and the diffusion, through
these interactions, of diseases, behaviors, and opinions. However, it remains a
challenge to track the proximity-based interactions of a whole community and
then model the social diffusion of diseases and behaviors starting from the
observations of a small fraction of the volunteer population. In this paper, we
propose a novel approach that tries to connect together these sparse
observations using a model of how individuals interact with each other and how
social interactions happen in terms of a sequence of proximity interactions. We
apply our approach to track the spreading of flu in the spatial-proximity
network of a 3000-people university campus by mobilizing 300 volunteers from
this population to monitor nearby mobile phones through Bluetooth scanning and
to daily report flu symptoms about and around them. Our aim is to predict the
likelihood for an individual to get flu based on how often her/his daily
routine intersects with those of the volunteers. Thus, we use the daily
routines of the volunteers to build a model of the volunteers as well as of the
non-volunteers. Our results show that we can predict flu infection two weeks
ahead of time with an average precision from 0.24 to 0.35 depending on the
amount of information. This precision is six to nine times higher than with a
random guess model. At the population level, we can predict infectious
population in a two-week window with an r-squared value of 0.95 (a random-guess
model obtains an r-squared value of 0.2). These results point to an innovative
approach for tracking individuals who have interacted with people showing
symptoms, allowing us to warn those in danger of infection and to inform health
researchers about the progression of contact-induced diseases
Learning from Neighbors about a Changing State
Agents learn about a changing state using private signals and past actions of
neighbors in a network. We characterize equilibrium learning and social
influence in this setting. We then examine when agents can aggregate
information well, responding quickly to recent changes. A key sufficient
condition for good aggregation is that each individual's neighbors have
sufficiently different types of private information. In contrast, when signals
are homogeneous, aggregation is suboptimal on any network. We also examine
behavioral versions of the model, and show that achieving good aggregation
requires a sophisticated understanding of correlations in neighbors' actions.
The model provides a Bayesian foundation for a tractable learning dynamic in
networks, closely related to the DeGroot model, and offers new tools for
counterfactual and welfare analyses.Comment: minor revision tweaking exposition relative to v5 - which added new
Section 3.2.2, new Theorem 2, new Section 7.1, many local revision
Distributed Learning from Interactions in Social Networks
We consider a network scenario in which agents can evaluate each other
according to a score graph that models some interactions. The goal is to design
a distributed protocol, run by the agents, that allows them to learn their
unknown state among a finite set of possible values. We propose a Bayesian
framework in which scores and states are associated to probabilistic events
with unknown parameters and hyperparameters, respectively. We show that each
agent can learn its state by means of a local Bayesian classifier and a
(centralized) Maximum-Likelihood (ML) estimator of parameter-hyperparameter
that combines plain ML and Empirical Bayes approaches. By using tools from
graphical models, which allow us to gain insight on conditional dependencies of
scores and states, we provide a relaxed probabilistic model that ultimately
leads to a parameter-hyperparameter estimator amenable to distributed
computation. To highlight the appropriateness of the proposed relaxation, we
demonstrate the distributed estimators on a social interaction set-up for user
profiling.Comment: This submission is a shorter work (for conference publication) of a
more comprehensive paper, already submitted as arXiv:1706.04081 (under review
for journal publication). In this short submission only one social set-up is
considered and only one of the relaxed estimators is proposed. Moreover, the
exhaustive analysis, carried out in the longer manuscript, is completely
missing in this versio
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