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Uncertainty quantification (UQ)
This paper was presented at the 3rd Micro and Nano Flows Conference (MNF2011), which was held at the Makedonia Palace Hotel, Thessaloniki in Greece. The conference was organised by Brunel University and supported by the Italian Union of Thermofluiddynamics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, University of Thessaly, IPEM, the Process Intensification Network, the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, the Heat Transfer Society, HEXAG - the Heat Exchange Action Group, and the Energy Institute.Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is an emerging field in computational engineering that can provide certificates of fidelity in a simulation beyond the standard numerical error, and it includes uncertainty in boundary conditions, constitutive laws, materials properties and geometries. UQ is particularly impornat at microscales where geometric roughness and material properties cannot be readily quantified experimentally.
Here we present a general framework for UQ based on the generalized polynomial chaos approach and various extensions that do not require modification of existing codes and are particularly effective in Microsystems with many uncertain parameters (e.g. high dimensionality)
Stochastic collocation on unstructured multivariate meshes
Collocation has become a standard tool for approximation of parameterized
systems in the uncertainty quantification (UQ) community. Techniques for
least-squares regularization, compressive sampling recovery, and interpolatory
reconstruction are becoming standard tools used in a variety of applications.
Selection of a collocation mesh is frequently a challenge, but methods that
construct geometrically "unstructured" collocation meshes have shown great
potential due to attractive theoretical properties and direct, simple
generation and implementation. We investigate properties of these meshes,
presenting stability and accuracy results that can be used as guides for
generating stochastic collocation grids in multiple dimensions.Comment: 29 pages, 6 figure
Level Set Methods for Stochastic Discontinuity Detection in Nonlinear Problems
Stochastic physical problems governed by nonlinear conservation laws are
challenging due to solution discontinuities in stochastic and physical space.
In this paper, we present a level set method to track discontinuities in
stochastic space by solving a Hamilton-Jacobi equation. By introducing a speed
function that vanishes at discontinuities, the iso-zero of the level set
problem coincide with the discontinuities of the conservation law. The level
set problem is solved on a sequence of successively finer grids in stochastic
space. The method is adaptive in the sense that costly evaluations of the
conservation law of interest are only performed in the vicinity of the
discontinuities during the refinement stage. In regions of stochastic space
where the solution is smooth, a surrogate method replaces expensive evaluations
of the conservation law. The proposed method is tested in conjunction with
different sets of localized orthogonal basis functions on simplex elements, as
well as frames based on piecewise polynomials conforming to the level set
function. The performance of the proposed method is compared to existing
adaptive multi-element generalized polynomial chaos methods
Comparison of data-driven uncertainty quantification methods for a carbon dioxide storage benchmark scenario
A variety of methods is available to quantify uncertainties arising with\-in
the modeling of flow and transport in carbon dioxide storage, but there is a
lack of thorough comparisons. Usually, raw data from such storage sites can
hardly be described by theoretical statistical distributions since only very
limited data is available. Hence, exact information on distribution shapes for
all uncertain parameters is very rare in realistic applications. We discuss and
compare four different methods tested for data-driven uncertainty
quantification based on a benchmark scenario of carbon dioxide storage. In the
benchmark, for which we provide data and code, carbon dioxide is injected into
a saline aquifer modeled by the nonlinear capillarity-free fractional flow
formulation for two incompressible fluid phases, namely carbon dioxide and
brine. To cover different aspects of uncertainty quantification, we incorporate
various sources of uncertainty such as uncertainty of boundary conditions, of
conceptual model definitions and of material properties. We consider recent
versions of the following non-intrusive and intrusive uncertainty
quantification methods: arbitary polynomial chaos, spatially adaptive sparse
grids, kernel-based greedy interpolation and hybrid stochastic Galerkin. The
performance of each approach is demonstrated assessing expectation value and
standard deviation of the carbon dioxide saturation against a reference
statistic based on Monte Carlo sampling. We compare the convergence of all
methods reporting on accuracy with respect to the number of model runs and
resolution. Finally we offer suggestions about the methods' advantages and
disadvantages that can guide the modeler for uncertainty quantification in
carbon dioxide storage and beyond
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