Multi-criteria group decision making with a partialranking-based ordinal consensus reaching process for automotive development management

The consensus reaching process (CRP) aims at reconciling the conflicts between individual preferences when eliciting collective preferences. The ordinal CRP based on the positional orders of alternatives in linear rankings is straightforward and robust; however, for partial rankings involving preference, indifference and incomparability relations, there is no explicit positional order but are binary relations. This study focuses on partial rankings that may occur when using the ORESTE (organısation, rangement et Synthese de donnees relarionnelles, in French) method for making decisions, and designs an ordinal CRP pertaining to the binary relations of alternatives. Concretely, we propose an enhanced ordinal consensus measure with two hierarchies to measure the agreement levels between individual partial rankings. Consensus degrees are calculated based on the frequency distribution of binary relation types, which can avoid subjective axiomatic assumptions on the relations themselves. Besides, a consensus threshold determination method close to cognitive expression is developed. A feedback mechanism is designed to aid experts to modify preferences towards group consensus. An example about the evaluation of automotive design schemes is presented to validate the proposed ordinal CRP. A ranking result that allows the incomparability relations of design schemes is obtained after the information exchange among experts

Signs of universality in the structure of culture

Understanding the dynamics of opinions, preferences and of culture as whole requires more use of empirical data than has been done so far. It is clear that an important role in driving this dynamics is played by social influence, which is the essential ingredient of many quantitative models. Such models require that all traits are fixed when specifying the "initial cultural state". Typically, this initial state is randomly generated, from a uniform distribution over the set of possible combinations of traits. However, recent work has shown that the outcome of social influence dynamics strongly depends on the nature of the initial state. If the latter is sampled from empirical data instead of being generated in a uniformly random way, a higher level of cultural diversity is found after long-term dynamics, for the same level of propensity towards collective behavior in the short-term. Moreover, if the initial state is randomized by shuffling the empirical traits among people, the level of long-term cultural diversity is in-between those obtained for the empirical and uniformly random counterparts. The current study repeats the analysis for multiple empirical data sets, showing that the results are remarkably similar, although the matrix of correlations between cultural variables clearly differs across data sets. This points towards robust structural properties inherent in empirical cultural states, possibly due to universal laws governing the dynamics of culture in the real world. The results also suggest that this dynamics might be characterized by criticality and involve mechanisms beyond social influence.Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures; the same results as in version 3, but a shorter Introduction, Discussion and Conclusio

Development of a multi-criteria collaborative decision model for performance management in networks of organisations

Páginas numeradas; I-XIII, 14-117Tese de mestrado. Gestão de Informação. Faculdade de Engenharia. Universidade do Porto. 200

A Trust Risk Dynamic Management Mechanism Based on Third-Party Monitoring for the Conflict-Eliminating Process of Social Network Group Decision Making

This work was supported in part by the Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province under Grant KYCX20_0507; in part by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under Grant B200203165 and Grant B220203013; in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) under Grant 71871085; in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province under Grant BK20210634; in part by the Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST under Grant 1521182101004; and in part by the China Scholarship Council under Grant 202106710123.Every decision may involve risks. Real-world risk issues are usually supervised by third parties. Decision-making may be affected by the absence of sufficient or reasonable trust or to the opposite, an unconditional, excessive, or blind trust, which is called trust risks. The conflict-eliminating process (CEP) aims to facilitate satisfactory consensus by decision makers (DMs) through continuous reconciliation between their opinion differences on the subject matter. This article addresses trust risks in CEP of social network group decision making (SNGDM) through third-party monitoring. A trust risk analysis-based conflict-eliminating model for SNGDM is developed. It is assumed that a third-party agency monitors the DMs’ credibility and performance, which is recorded in an objective evaluation matrix and multi-attribute trust assessment matrix (MTAM). A trust risk measurement methodology is proposed to classify the DMs’ different trust risk types and to measure the trust risk index (TRI) of a group of DMs. When TRI is unacceptable, a trust risk management mechanism that controls TRI is activated. Different management policies are applicable to DMs’ different trust risk types. There are two main methods: 1) dynamically update the MTAM based on DMs’ performance and 2) provide suggestions for modifying the DM’s information with high TRI. Besides, as part of the integrated CEP, this model includes an optimization approach to dynamically derive DMs’ reliable aggregation weights from their MTAM. Simulation experiments and an illustrative example support the feasibility and validity of the proposed model for managing trust risks in CEP of SNGDM.Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province KYCX20_0507Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities B200203165 B220203013National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) 71871085Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province BK20210634Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST 1521182101004China Scholarship Council 20210671012

Introducing disruption on stagnated Group Decision Making processes using Fuzzy Ontologies

In Group Decision Making processes, experts debate about how to rank a set of alternatives. It is usual that, at a certain point of the discussion, the debate gets stuck. In this paper, a novel Group Decision Making method for environments with a high number of alternatives is presented. Fuzzy Ontologies are used in order to represent the alternatives and their characteristics. Moreover, a novel stagnation analysis is used in order to determine if the debate gets stuck. If it does, the method modifies the alternatives set in order to introduce new options and remove the least popular ones. This way, the debate can revive since that the new alternatives provide different points of view. The presented method helps experts to conduct long and thorough debates in order for them to be able to make effective and reliable decisions.MCIN/AEI PID2019-103880RB-I00FEDER/Junta de Andalucia-Consejeria de Transformacion Economica, Industria, Conocimiento y Universidades B-TIC-590-UGR20Andalusian government P20_00673Ministry of Education and King Abdulaziz University, DSR, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia IFPHI-049-135-2020Universidad de Granada/CBU

An overview on managing additive consistency of reciprocal preference relations for consistency-driven decision making and Fusion: Taxonomy and future directions

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.The reciprocal preference relation (RPR) is a powerful tool to represent decision makers’ preferences in decision making problems. In recent years, various types of RPRs have been reported and investigated, some of them being the ‘classical’ RPRs, interval-valued RPRs and hesitant RPRs. Additive consistency is one of the most commonly used property to measure the consistency of RPRs, with many methods developed to manage additive consistency of RPRs. To provide a clear perspective on additive consistency issues of RPRs, this paper reviews the consistency measurements of the different types of RPRs. Then, consistency-driven decision making and information fusion methods are also reviewed and classified into four main types: consistency improving methods; consistency-based methods to manage incomplete RPRs; consistency control in consensus decision making methods; and consistency-driven linguistic decision making methods. Finally, with respect to insights gained from prior researches, further directions for the research are proposed

Expanding Credit Access: Using Randomized Supply Decisions to Estimate the Impacts

Expanding credit access is a key ingredient of development strategies worldwide. Microfinance practitioners, policymakers, and donors have ambitious goals for expanding access, and seek efficient methods for implementing and evaluating expansion. There is less consensus on the role of consumer credit in expansion initiatives. Some microfinance institutions are moving beyond entrepreneurial credit and offering consumer loans. But many practitioners and policymakers are skeptical about “unproductive” lending. These concerns are fueled by academic work highlighting behavioral biases that may induce consumers to over borrow. We estimate the impacts of a consumer credit supply expansion using a field experiment and follow-up data collection. A South African lender relaxed its risk assessment criteria by encouraging its loan officers to approve randomly selected marginal rejected applications. We estimate the resulting impacts using new survey data on applicant households and administrative data on loan repayment, as well as public credit reports one and two years later. We find that the marginal loans produced significant benefits for borrowers across a wide range economic and well-being outcomes. We also find some evidence that the marginal loans were profitable for the Lender. The results suggest that consumer credit expansions can be welfare-improving.Microfinance, credit impact, consumer credit