Portfolio optimisation models and properties of return distributions

Mean-risk models have been widely used in portfolio optimisation. However, such models may produce portfolios that are dominated with respect to second order stochastic dominance and therefore not optimal for rational and risk-averse investors. This paper considers the problem of constructing a portfolio which is nondominated with respect to second order stochastic dominance and whose return distribution has specified desirable properties. The problem is multi-objective and is transformed into a single objective problem by using the reference point method, in which target levels, known as aspiration points, are specified for the objective function values. A model is proposed in which the aspiration points relate to ordered return outcomes of the portfolio return. The model is extended by additionally specifying reservation points, which act pre-emptively in the optimisation. The theoretical properties of the models are studied. The performance of the models on real data drawn from the Hang Seng index is also investigated

MULTI CRITERIA DECISION MAKING MODELS: AN OVERVIEW ON ELECTRE METHODS

In portfolio analysis, there are a few models that can be used. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to make an overview on multi criteria decision making models, in particular, on ELECTRE methods. We discuss the different versions of ELECTRE, which exist and why they exist. So, when speaking about ELECTRE methods structure, we have to consider two main procedures: construction of one or several outranking relation(s) procedure, and exploitation procedure. In the exploitation procedure, recommendations are elaborated from the results obtained in the first phase. The nature of the recommendation depends on the problematic: choosing, ranking or sorting. Each method is characterized by its construction and exploitation procedure. For choice problem, we can apply ELECTRE I, ELECTRE Iv, and ELECTRE IS; for ranking problem, we can apply ELECTRE II, ELECTRE III, ELECTRE IV and ELECTRE-SS; and for sorting problem we can apply ELECTRE TRI. Finally, some failings on ELECTRE methods assumptions are discussed, for instance, rank reversals. So, when analyzing portfolio management decision problem, the literature suggests AHP method and PROMETHEE family.CAPM; decision problem; multi criteria decision making models; ELECTRE family; ELECTRE rank reversals

Multicriteria Analysis of Neural Network Forecasting Models: An Application to German Regional Labour Markets

This paper develops a flexible multi-dimensional assessment method for the comparison of different statistical-econometric techniques based on learning mechanisms with a view to analysing and forecasting regional labour markets. The aim of this paper is twofold. A first major objective is to explore the use of a standard choice tool, namely Multicriteria Analysis (MCA), in order to cope with the intrinsic methodological uncertainty on the choice of a suitable statistical-econometric learning technique for regional labour market analysis. MCA is applied here to support choices on the performance of various models -based on classes of Neural Network (NN) techniques-that serve to generate employment forecasts in West Germany at a regional/district level. A second objective of the paper is to analyse the methodological potential of a blend of approaches (NN-MCA) in order to extend the analysis framework to other economic research domains, where formal models are not available, but where a variety of statistical data is present. The paper offers a basis for a more balanced judgement of the performance of rival statistical tests

A comparative study of multiple-criteria decision-making methods under stochastic inputs

This paper presents an application and extension of multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods to account for stochastic input variables. More in particular, a comparative study is carried out among well-known and widely-applied methods in MCDM, when applied to the reference problem of the selection of wind turbine support structures for a given deployment location. Along with data from industrial experts, six deterministic MCDM methods are studied, so as to determine the best alternative among the available options, assessed against selected criteria with a view toward assigning confidence levels to each option. Following an overview of the literature around MCDM problems, the best practice implementation of each method is presented aiming to assist stakeholders and decision-makers to support decisions in real-world applications, where many and often conflicting criteria are present within uncertain environments. The outcomes of this research highlight that more sophisticated methods, such as technique for the order of preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) and Preference Ranking Organization method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE), better predict the optimum design alternative

Adaptation of domestic state governance to international governance models

The purpose of the article is to provide the evolving international trends of modern management models and authorial vision of model of state governance system in Ukraine, its subsystems, in particular, the system of provision of administrative services that is appropriate for the contemporary times. Methodology. On the basis of scientific and theoretical approaches to the definitions of terms “state governance” and “public governance”, there was an explanation of considerable difference between them and, taking into consideration, the mentality of Ukrainian society and peculiar weak side in self-organization, the authors offered to form authorial model of governance on the basis of historically traditional for Ukraine model of state governance and to add some elements of management concepts that proved their significance, efficiency and priority in practice. Results. The authors emphasized the following two prevailing modern management models in the international practice: “new state management” and “good governance”. The first concept offered for consideration served as a basis for the semantic content of state activity that reflects more the state of administrative reformation. Practical meaning. A practical introduction of management to the domestic model of governance creates the range of contradictions that do not allow implementing herein concept. Pursuant to authors, the second one allows in considerable measure to reform state governance, considering historically developed peculiarities of this model. Moreover, the involvement of concept herein into introduction of informational and communicational technologies in the process of governance eliminates the necessity of power decentralization, it allows to form real net structure and, at the same, to keep vertical power structure, to involve citizens for formation and taking of management decisions, to form electronic communicational channel of feedback, to provide citizens with electronic administrative services. All indicated advantages of the concept certify about the necessity to reform state governance exactly in this field. Meaning/ Distinction. This article raises a question about the significance of formation and sequence of state policy in Ukraine aimed at creating an information-oriented society, space, as well as informational and technological infrastructure