Option Effectiveness in the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution

The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) is expanded by designing a novel approach for the evaluation of the effectiveness of actions or options controlled by the decision makers (DMs) in a dispute with respect to the potential resolutions or equilibria. This new procedure, called Option Effectiveness, determines the relative importance of each option based on its selection within each resolution contained in the set of equilibria, as well as the types of solution concepts, or behavior under conflict, that form the equilibria. The solution concepts, or stability definitions, used in this method consist of Nash, Sequential Stability (SEQ), Symmetric Metarationality (SMR), and General Metarationality (GMR). More specifically, the strength of an equilibrium type from strongest to weakest is Nash, SEQ, SMR, and GMR. Based on this, the effectiveness or impact of a given option is calculated according to its presence in an equilibrium. This permits the options to be ranked according to their importance or effectiveness in resolving the dispute under consideration. By better understanding which options are crucial, a given DM can focus his effort on choosing strategies which will have a bigger impact on what occurs as the conflict evolves over time to a final resolution. The Option Effectiveness approach was tested and refined by applying it to four different real-world conflicts. In particular, the ongoing trade dispute between the United States (US) and China over a number of different trade agreements and financial institutions is modeled and analyzed at three points in time using the GMCR methodology in combination with the Option Effectiveness advancement given in this thesis. In fact, it was this particular conflict which motivated the author to develop the Option Effectiveness approach. This trade dispute is divided into three phases in time. The first phase starts when China leads the initiative to establish the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the US considers levying countermeasures. The second phase is when the US attempts to launch the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and offers China terms regarding the AIIB. In the case of China accepting the US conditions, the US will withdraw its opposition to the AIIB and announce a truce over it. The third phase is subsequent to the inauguration of Mr. Donald Trump as the President of the US in early 2017 and his withdrawal of the US from the TPP while China considers the launching of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade agreement. The Option Effectiveness approach is further illustrated by applying it to three other conflicts: the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 and two environmental conflicts called the Elmira Groundwater Contamination conflict and the Garrison Diversion Unit irrigation dispute. The insights revealed by applying the Option Effectiveness approach to these conflicts, confirm the advantages of utilizing the Option Effectiveness method in conflict analysis

Putting the Pieces Together for Good Governance of REDD+: An Analysis of 32 REDD+ Country Readiness Proposals

Developing countries are receiving new financial and technical support to design and implement programs that reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (referred to as REDD+). Reducing emissions from forest cover change requires transparent, accountable, inclusive, and coordinated systems and institutions to govern REDD+ programs. Two multilateral initiatives -- the World Bank-administered Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) and the United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in developing countries (UN-REDD Programme) -- are supporting REDD+ countries to become "ready" for REDD+ by preparing initial strategy proposals, developing institutions to manage REDD+ programs, and building capacity to implement REDD+ activities. This paper reviews 32 REDD+ readiness proposals submitted to these initiatives to understand overall trends in how eight elements of readiness (referred to in this paper as readiness needs) are being understood and prioritized globally. Specifically, we assess whether the readiness proposals (i) identify the eight readiness needs as relevant for REDD+, (ii) discuss challenges and options for addressing each need, and (iii) identify next steps to be implemented in relation to each need. Our analysis found that the readiness proposals make important commitments to developing effective, equitable, and well-governed REDD+ programs. However, in many of the proposals these general statements have not yet been translated into clear next steps

Designing Integrated Conflict Management Systems: Guidelines for Practitioners and Decision Makers in Organizations

A committee of the ADR (alternative dispute resolution) in the Workplace Initiative of the Society of Professionals in Dispute Resolution (SPIDR) prepared this document for employers, managers, labor representatives, employees, civil and human rights organizations, and others who interact with organizations. In this document we explain why organizations should consider developing integrated conflict management systems to prevent and resolve conflict, and we provide practical guidelines for designing and implementing such systems. The principles identified in this document can also be used to manage external conflict with customers, clients, and the public. Indeed, we recommend that organizations focus simultaneously on preventing and managing both internal and external conflict. SPIDR recognizes that an integrated conflict management system will work only if designed with input from users and decision makers at all levels of the organization. Each system must be tailored to fit the organization\u27s needs, circumstances, and culture. In developing these systems, experimentation is both necessary and healthy. We hope that this document will provide guidance, encourage experimentation, and contribute to the evolving understanding of how best to design and implement these systems

Background and Characteristics of our Dispute Resolution Program

Report submitted to the Commission on the Future of Worker-Management Relations.Report_Stevens_092894.pdf: 2336 downloads, before Oct. 1, 2020

Managing Ethnic Conflict in Darfur: An Analysis of Third-Party Interventions

Persistent ethnic conflict in Darfur has been met by third-party interventions with varying degrees of success. This paper seeks to isolate different methods of intervention in order to understand what types are effective in reducing the number of people affected by violence caused by ethnic conflict. Each intervention is separated into three categories based on their nature: humanitarian, militaristic, and diplomatic. These actions are then juxtaposed with data from medical journals that describe the effects of violence, including death by violence, death by disease, and child mortality rates. The success of an intervention is measured by its ability to reduce the number of people negatively affected by the violence. This analysis suggests that diplomatic intervention has a positive effect on reducing the death toll in Darfur, while humanitarian and diplomatic interventions produce ambiguous results. The results are significant in their ability to shed light on effective methods by which to alleviate one of the worst humanitarian crises of the 21st century

The UN Secretary-General's High Level Panel: Biolobical Weapons Related Issues

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The European Union, Conflict Transformation and Civil Society: A Conceptual Framework

The European Union considers conflict resolution as a cardinal objective of its foreign policy. It makes use of a number of policy instruments to promote conflict transformation through ‘constructive engagement’, which cover a range of sectors affecting conditions and incentives at the micro level. The EU has recognised the importance of engaging with civil society in situations of violent conflict, but needs to engage more with local civil society to make its policies more effective. This paper provides a conceptual framework and discussion to analyse which local civil society actors play a role in conflict and conflict transformation, through which activities they impact on conflicts and how, what determines their effectiveness, and finally how EU neighbourhood policies can enhance their constructive impact in peacefully transforming conflicts in its near abroad by engaging with civil society.Civil society, European Union, European Neighbourhood Policy, violent conflict, conflict transformation