Identifying Influential Agents In Social Systems

This dissertation addresses the problem of influence maximization in social networks. In- fluence maximization is applicable to many types of real-world problems, including modeling contagion, technology adoption, and viral marketing. Here we examine an advertisement domain in which the overarching goal is to find the influential nodes in a social network, based on the network structure and the interactions, as targets of advertisement. The assumption is that advertisement budget limits prevent us from sending the advertisement to everybody in the network. Therefore, a wise selection of the people can be beneficial in increasing the product adoption. To model these social systems, agent-based modeling, a powerful tool for the study of phenomena that are difficult to observe within the confines of the laboratory, is used. To analyze marketing scenarios, this dissertation proposes a new method for propagating information through a social system and demonstrates how it can be used to develop a product advertisement strategy in a simulated market. We consider the desire of agents toward purchasing an item as a random variable and solve the influence maximization problem in steady state using an optimization method to assign the advertisement of available products to appropriate messenger agents. Our market simulation 1) accounts for the effects of group membership on agent attitudes 2) has a network structure that is similar to realistic human systems 3) models inter-product preference correlations that can be learned from market data. The results on synthetic data show that this method is significantly better than network analysis methods based on centrality measures. The optimized influence maximization (OIM) described above, has some limitations. For instance, it relies on a global estimation of the interaction among agents in the network, rendering it incapable of handling large networks. Although OIM is capable of finding the influential nodes in the social network in an optimized way and targeting them for advertising, in large networks, performing the matrix operations required to find the optimized solution is intractable. To overcome this limitation, we then propose a hierarchical influence maximization (HIM) iii algorithm for scaling influence maximization to larger networks. In the hierarchical method the network is partitioned into multiple smaller networks that can be solved exactly with optimization techniques, assuming a generalized IC model, to identify a candidate set of seed nodes. The candidate nodes are used to create a distance-preserving abstract version of the network that maintains an aggregate influence model between partitions. The budget limitation for the advertising dictates the algorithm’s stopping point. On synthetic datasets, we show that our method comes close to the optimal node selection, at substantially lower runtime costs. We present results from applying the HIM algorithm to real-world datasets collected from social media sites with large numbers of users (Epinions, SlashDot, and WikiVote) and compare it with two benchmarks, PMIA and DegreeDiscount, to examine the scalability and performance. Our experimental results reveal that HIM scales to larger networks but is outperformed by degreebased algorithms in highly-connected networks. However, HIM performs well in modular networks where the communities are clearly separable with small number of cross-community edges. This finding suggests that for practical applications it is useful to account for network properties when selecting an influence maximization method

Can Network Theory-based Targeting Increase Technology Adoption?

In order to induce farmers to adopt a productive new agricultural technology, we apply simple and complex contagion diffusion models on rich social network data from 200 villages in Malawi to identify seed farmers to target and train on the new technology. A randomized controlled trial compares these theory-driven network targeting approaches to simpler strategies that either rely on a government extension worker or an easily measurable proxy for the social network (geographic distance between households) to identify seed farmers. Our results indicate that technology diffusion is characterized by a complex contagion learning environment in which most farmers need to learn from multiple people before they adopt themselves. Network theory based targeting can out-perform traditional approaches to extension, and we identify methods to realize these gains at low cost to policymakers. Keywords: Social Learning, Agricultural Technology Adoption, Complex Contagion, Malawi JEL Classification Codes: O16, O13Comment: 61 page

Effects of Time Horizons on Influence Maximization in the Voter Dynamics

In this paper we analyze influence maximization in the voter model with an active strategic and a passive influencing party in non-stationary settings. We thus explore the dependence of optimal influence allocation on the time horizons of the strategic influencer. We find that on undirected heterogeneous networks, for short time horizons, influence is maximized when targeting low-degree nodes, while for long time horizons influence maximization is achieved when controlling hub nodes. Furthermore, we show that for short and intermediate time scales influence maximization can exploit knowledge of (transient) opinion configurations. More in detail, we find two rules. First, nodes with states differing from the strategic influencer's goal should be targeted. Second, if only few nodes are initially aligned with the strategic influencer, nodes subject to opposing influence should be avoided, but when many nodes are aligned, an optimal influencer should shadow opposing influence.Comment: 22 page

Identifying influencers in a social network : the value of real referral data

Individuals influence each other through social interactions and marketers aim to leverage this interpersonal influence to attract new customers. It still remains a challenge to identify those customers in a social network that have the most influence on their social connections. A common approach to the influence maximization problem is to simulate influence cascades through the network based on the existence of links in the network using diffusion models. Our study contributes to the literature by evaluating these principles using real-life referral behaviour data. A new ranking metric, called Referral Rank, is introduced that builds on the game theoretic concept of the Shapley value for assigning each individual in the network a value that reflects the likelihood of referring new customers. We also explore whether these methods can be further improved by looking beyond the one-hop neighbourhood of the influencers. Experiments on a large telecommunication data set and referral data set demonstrate that using traditional simulation based methods to identify influencers in a social network can lead to suboptimal decisions as the results overestimate actual referral cascades. We also find that looking at the influence of the two-hop neighbours of the customers improves the influence spread and product adoption. Our findings suggest that companies can take two actions to improve their decision support system for identifying influential customers: (1) improve the data by incorporating data that reflects the actual referral behaviour of the customers or (2) extend the method by looking at the influence of the connections in the two-hop neighbourhood of the customers

Seeding with Costly Network Information

We study the task of selecting $k$ nodes in a social network of size $n$, to seed a diffusion with maximum expected spread size, under the independent cascade model with cascade probability $p$. Most of the previous work on this problem (known as influence maximization) focuses on efficient algorithms to approximate the optimal seed set with provable guarantees, given the knowledge of the entire network. However, in practice, obtaining full knowledge of the network is very costly. To address this gap, we first study the achievable guarantees using $o(n)$ influence samples. We provide an approximation algorithm with a tight (1-1/e){\mbox{OPT}}-\epsilon n guarantee, using $O_{\epsilon}(k^2\log n)$ influence samples and show that this dependence on $k$ is asymptotically optimal. We then propose a probing algorithm that queries ${O}_{\epsilon}(p n^2\log^4 n + \sqrt{k p} n^{1.5}\log^{5.5} n + k n\log^{3.5}{n})$ edges from the graph and use them to find a seed set with the same almost tight approximation guarantee. We also provide a matching (up to logarithmic factors) lower-bound on the required number of edges. To address the dependence of our probing algorithm on the independent cascade probability $p$, we show that it is impossible to maintain the same approximation guarantees by controlling the discrepancy between the probing and seeding cascade probabilities. Instead, we propose to down-sample the probed edges to match the seeding cascade probability, provided that it does not exceed that of probing. Finally, we test our algorithms on real world data to quantify the trade-off between the cost of obtaining more refined network information and the benefit of the added information for guiding improved seeding strategies

MOBILE MARKETING FUTURE TRENDS

The present article proposes an introspection into the field of a new marketing specialization – mobile marketing. The concept mainly refers to all marketing activities related to the new communication channel – Short Message Service, Multimedia Messaging Service, and internet access from mobile phone. The article provides, at the same time, a marketing perspective about future trends of mobile marketing and mobile media, and also a technical perspective related to the future mobile communication technologies in the field – the LTE (Long Term Evolution) – cellular communication system optimized to support packet-switched data services to enable mobile broadband. The conclusions of the article focus on the relevance of mobile marketing, techniques efficiency related to brand promotion, changing consumers attitude and the development of such techniques imposed by the new mobile communication systemmobile marketing; long term evolution; broadband; brand awareness; consumer attitude