The Need for Transparency in Commodity and Commodity Derivatives Markets. ECMI Research Report No. 3, 15 December 2008

This paper argues that transparency-boosting measures specifically tailored to commodity and commodity derivatives markets are much needed. In particular, encouraging the creation of a clearing infrastructure for OTC commodity and commodity derivatives markets would be desirable. Moreover, EU regulators should consider setting up a new, more effective market abuse regime aimed at preventing manipulation in both the physical and financial commodities markets. Finally, in cooperation with the G20, EU authorities should consider the creation of an International Commodity Agency to increase transparency and restore confidence in international physical markets for commodities. The paper is structured as follows: Section 2 briefly discusses the fundamentals of commodity spot and futures markets. Section 3 presents both physical commodity markets and commodity derivative markets in their usual breakdown categories: agriculture, metals and energy. Section 4 discusses the regulations in the EU and the US concerning commodity derivatives. Section 5 advances certain policy proposals and the last section draws the conclusions

E-COMMERCE IN AGRICULTURE: DEVELOPMENT, STRATEGY, AND MARKET IMPLICATIONS

Marketing,

Optimal Agricultural Production and Trade: Implications on International Competitiveness

International Relations/Trade,

Tariffs, Transport Costs and the WTO Doha Round: The Case of Developing Countries

The WTO Doha Round of multinational trade negotiations is labelled the “development round” to highlight the fact that progress could be achieved through the enhanced integration of the poor countries into the world economy. Since the trade agenda focuses to a large extent on the levels of direct and indirect trade barriers as well as other aspects of trade and competition policy, an important aspect of the relative trade performance of developing countries has been neglected somewhat. This paper argues that, in addition to trade barriers, other trade costs, such as communications and transport costs, have to be taken into account. These other costs can be significantly higher in developing countries, which impedes their successful integration into world markets.developing countries, transport costs, WTO Doha Round, International Relations/Trade,

A capacitated commodity trading model with market power

In this paper we consider the problem of a trader who purchases a commodity in one market and resells it in another. The trader is capacitated: the trading volume is limited by operational constraints, e.g., logistics. The two markets quote different prices, but the spread is reduced when trading takes place. We are interested in finding the optimal trading policy across the markets so as to obtain the maximum profit in the long-term, taking into account that the trading activity influences the price processes, i.e., market power. As in the no-market-power case, we find that the optimal policy is determined by three regions, where 1) move as much as possible from one market to the other; 2) the same in the opposite direction; or 3) do nothing. Finally, we use the model to analyze kerosene price differences between New York and Los Angeles.commodity trading; price processes; inventory management;

MARKETING INSTITUTIONS IN INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY MARKETS

Marketing,

MARKET POWER AND ASYMMETRY IN FARM-RETAIL PRICE TRANSMISSION

A finite mixture model is used to examine whether price asymmetries exist in U.S. fresh strawberry markets. Two distinct pricing regimes are identified. Results show that price asymmetries exist only at 34 percent of the cases and market power has played an important role in generating such asymmetric price relationships.Marketing,

Price Dynamics & Trading Strategies in the Commodities Market

This thesis makes new observations of market phenomena for various commodities and trading strategies centered around these observations. In particular, our results imply that many aspects of the commodities markets, from delivery markets to producers and consumer derivative based ETFs can be modeled eectively using nancial engineering techniques. Chapter 2 examines what drives the returns of gold miner stocks and ETFs. Inspired by our real options model, we construct a method to dynamically replicate gold miner stocks using two factors: a spot gold ETF and a market equity portfolio. We find that our real options approach can explain a significant portion of the drivers of firm implied gold leverage. Chapter 3 studies commodity exchange-traded funds (ETFs). From empirical data, we find that many commodity leveraged ETFs underperform significantly against our constructed dynamic benchmark, and we quantify such a discrepancy via the novel idea of realized effective fee. Finally, we consider a number of trading strategies and examine their performance by backtesting with historical price data. Chapter 4 studies the phenomenon of non-convergence between futures and spot prices in the grains market. In our proposed approach, we incorporate stochastic spot price and storage cost, and solve an optimal double stopping problem to understand shipping certificate prices. Our new models for stochastic storage rates explain the spot-futures premium

Shipping markets and freight rates: an analysis of the Baltic Dry Index

Shipping, although a crucial component of the transportation of commodities worldwide, is hardly present in the finance literature at this point. The first and foremost goal of this paper is to describe and explain from an economic perspective the key features of shipping markets; the second one is to analyze the behavior of freight rates, which define the final cost of an imported commodity. We focus on the major index, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) and propose some diffusion models able to capture the unique features of its trajectories, namely large swings and continuity. Their performance is exhibited on a database covering the period 1988-2010. Such spot models should facilitate the growth of the market of freight rates options, a safe hedging instrument for farmers and cooperatives that ship their grains to distant destinations