71,046 research outputs found
Joint segmentation of multivariate astronomical time series : bayesian sampling with a hierarchical model
Astronomy and other sciences often face the problem of detecting and characterizing structure in two or more related time series. This paper approaches such problems using Bayesian priors to represent relationships between signals with various degrees of certainty, and not just rigid constraints. The segmentation is conducted by using a hierarchical Bayesian approach to a piecewise constant Poisson rate model. A Gibbs sampling strategy allows joint estimation of the unknown parameters and hyperparameters. Results obtained with synthetic and real photon counting data illustrate the performance of the proposed algorithm
Search for astro-gravity correlations
A new approach in the gravitational wave experiment is considered. In
addition to the old method of searching for coincident reactions of two
separated gravitational antennae it was proposed to seek perturbations of the
gravitational detector noise background correlated with astrophysical events
such as neutrino and gamma ray bursts which can be relaibly registered by
correspondent sensors. A general algorithm for this approach is developed. Its
efficiency is demonstrated in reanalysis of the old data concerning the
phenomenon of neutrino-gravity correlation registered during of SN1987A
explosion.Comment: 29 pages (LaTeX), 4 figures (EPS
Asymptotic Properties of Bayes Risk of a General Class of Shrinkage Priors in Multiple Hypothesis Testing Under Sparsity
Consider the problem of simultaneous testing for the means of independent
normal observations. In this paper, we study some asymptotic optimality
properties of certain multiple testing rules induced by a general class of
one-group shrinkage priors in a Bayesian decision theoretic framework, where
the overall loss is taken as the number of misclassified hypotheses. We assume
a two-groups normal mixture model for the data and consider the asymptotic
framework adopted in Bogdan et al. (2011) who introduced the notion of
asymptotic Bayes optimality under sparsity in the context of multiple testing.
The general class of one-group priors under study is rich enough to include,
among others, the families of three parameter beta, generalized double Pareto
priors, and in particular the horseshoe, the normal-exponential-gamma and the
Strawderman-Berger priors. We establish that within our chosen asymptotic
framework, the multiple testing rules under study asymptotically attain the
risk of the Bayes Oracle up to a multiplicative factor, with the constant in
the risk close to the constant in the Oracle risk. This is similar to a result
obtained in Datta and Ghosh (2013) for the multiple testing rule based on the
horseshoe estimator introduced in Carvalho et al. (2009, 2010). We further show
that under very mild assumption on the underlying sparsity parameter, the
induced decision rules based on an empirical Bayes estimate of the
corresponding global shrinkage parameter proposed by van der Pas et al. (2014),
attain the optimal Bayes risk up to the same multiplicative factor
asymptotically. We provide a unifying argument applicable for the general class
of priors under study. In the process, we settle a conjecture regarding
optimality property of the generalized double Pareto priors made in Datta and
Ghosh (2013). Our work also shows that the result in Datta and Ghosh (2013) can
be improved further
Probabilistic expert systems for handling artifacts in complex DNA mixtures
This paper presents a coherent probabilistic framework for taking account of allelic dropout, stutter bands and silent alleles when interpreting STR DNA profiles from a mixture sample using peak size information arising from a PCR analysis. This information can be exploited for evaluating the evidential strength for a hypothesis that DNA from a particular person is present in the mixture. It extends an earlier Bayesian network approach that ignored such artifacts. We illustrate the use of the extended network on a published casework example
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