Asymptotically Optimal Sampling Policy for Quickest Change Detection with Observation-Switching Cost

We consider the problem of quickest change detection (QCD) in a signal where its observations are obtained using a set of actions, and switching from one action to another comes with a cost. The objective is to design a stopping rule consisting of a sampling policy to determine the sequence of actions used to observe the signal and a stopping time to quickly detect for the change, subject to a constraint on the average observation-switching cost. We propose an open-loop sampling policy of finite window size and a generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) Cumulative Sum (CuSum) stopping time for the QCD problem. We show that the GLR CuSum stopping time is asymptotically optimal with a properly designed sampling policy and formulate the design of this sampling policy as a quadratic programming problem. We prove that it is sufficient to consider policies of window size not more than one when designing policies of finite window size and propose several algorithms that solve this optimization problem with theoretical guarantees. For observation-dependent policies, we propose a $2$-threshold stopping time and an observation-dependent sampling policy. We present a method to design the observation-dependent sampling policy based on open-loop sampling policies. Finally, we apply our approach to the problem of QCD of a partially observed graph signal and empirically demonstrate the performance of our proposed stopping times

Data-efficient quickest change detection

In the classical problem of quickest change detection, a decision maker observes a sequence of random variables. At some point of time, the distribution of the random variables changes abruptly. The objective is to detect this change in distribution with minimum possible delay, subject to a constraint on the false alarm rate. In many applications of quickest change detection, changes are rare and there is a cost associated with taking observations or acquiring data. For such applications, the classical quickest change detection model is no longer applicable. In this dissertation we extend the classical formulations by adding an additional penalty on the cost of observations used before the change point. The objective is to find a causal on-off observation control policy and a stopping time, to minimize the detection delay, subject to constraints on the false alarm rate and the cost of observations used before the change point. We show that two-threshold generalizations of the classical single-threshold tests are asymptotically optimal for the proposed formulations. The nature of optimality is strong in the sense that the false alarm rates of the two-threshold tests are at least as good as the false alarm rates of their classical counterparts. Also, the delays of the two-threshold tests are within a constant of the delays of their classical counterparts. These results indicate that an arbitrary but fixed fraction of observations can be skipped before change without any loss in asymptotic performance. A detailed performance analysis of these algorithms is provided, and guidelines are given for the design of the proposed tests, on the basis of the performance analysis. An important result obtained through this analysis is that the two constraints, on the false alarm rate and the cost of observations used before the change, can be met independent of each other. Numerical studies of these two-threshold algorithms also reveal that they have good trade-off curves, and perform significantly better than the approach of fractional sampling, where classical single threshold tests are used and the constraint on the cost of observations is met by skipping observations randomly. We first study the problem in Bayesian and minimax settings and then extend the results to more general quickest change detection models, namely, model with unknown post-change distribution, a sensor network model, and a multi-channel model

Data-Efficient Quickest Outlying Sequence Detection in Sensor Networks

A sensor network is considered where at each sensor a sequence of random variables is observed. At each time step, a processed version of the observations is transmitted from the sensors to a common node called the fusion center. At some unknown point in time the distribution of observations at an unknown subset of the sensor nodes changes. The objective is to detect the outlying sequences as quickly as possible, subject to constraints on the false alarm rate, the cost of observations taken at each sensor, and the cost of communication between the sensors and the fusion center. Minimax formulations are proposed for the above problem and algorithms are proposed that are shown to be asymptotically optimal for the proposed formulations, as the false alarm rate goes to zero. It is also shown, via numerical studies, that the proposed algorithms perform significantly better than those based on fractional sampling, in which the classical algorithms from the literature are used and the constraint on the cost of observations is met by using the outcome of a sequence of biased coin tosses, independent of the observation process.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, Nov 2014. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1408.474

Data-Efficient Quickest Change Detection with On-Off Observation Control

In this paper we extend the Shiryaev's quickest change detection formulation by also accounting for the cost of observations used before the change point. The observation cost is captured through the average number of observations used in the detection process before the change occurs. The objective is to select an on-off observation control policy, that decides whether or not to take a given observation, along with the stopping time at which the change is declared, so as to minimize the average detection delay, subject to constraints on both the probability of false alarm and the observation cost. By considering a Lagrangian relaxation of the constraint problem, and using dynamic programming arguments, we obtain an \textit{a posteriori} probability based two-threshold algorithm that is a generalized version of the classical Shiryaev algorithm. We provide an asymptotic analysis of the two-threshold algorithm and show that the algorithm is asymptotically optimal, i.e., the performance of the two-threshold algorithm approaches that of the Shiryaev algorithm, for a fixed observation cost, as the probability of false alarm goes to zero. We also show, using simulations, that the two-threshold algorithm has good observation cost-delay trade-off curves, and provides significant reduction in observation cost as compared to the naive approach of fractional sampling, where samples are skipped randomly. Our analysis reveals that, for practical choices of constraints, the two thresholds can be set independent of each other: one based on the constraint of false alarm and another based on the observation cost constraint alone.Comment: Preliminary version of this paper has been presented at ITA Workshop UCSD 201

Non-Bayesian Quickest Detection with Stochastic Sample Right Constraints

In this paper, we study the design and analysis of optimal detection scheme for sensors that are deployed to monitor the change in the environment and are powered by the energy harvested from the environment. In this type of applications, detection delay is of paramount importance. We model this problem as quickest change detection problem with a stochastic energy constraint. In particular, a wireless sensor powered by renewable energy takes observations from a random sequence, whose distribution will change at a certain unknown time. Such a change implies events of interest. The energy in the sensor is consumed by taking observations and is replenished randomly. The sensor cannot take observations if there is no energy left in the battery. Our goal is to design a power allocation scheme and a detection strategy to minimize the worst case detection delay, which is the difference between the time when an alarm is raised and the time when the change occurs. Two types of average run length (ARL) constraint, namely an algorithm level ARL constraint and an system level ARL constraint, are considered. We propose a low complexity scheme in which the energy allocation rule is to spend energy to take observations as long as the battery is not empty and the detection scheme is the Cumulative Sum test. We show that this scheme is optimal for the formulation with the algorithm level ARL constraint and is asymptotically optimal for the formulations with the system level ARL constraint.Comment: 30 pages, 5 figure