Recursive Bayesian inference on stochastic differential equations

This thesis is concerned with recursive Bayesian estimation of non-linear dynamical systems, which can be modeled as discretely observed stochastic differential equations. The recursive real-time estimation algorithms for these continuous-discrete filtering problems are traditionally called optimal filters and the algorithms for recursively computing the estimates based on batches of observations are called optimal smoothers. In this thesis, new practical algorithms for approximate and asymptotically optimal continuous-discrete filtering and smoothing are presented. The mathematical approach of this thesis is probabilistic and the estimation algorithms are formulated in terms of Bayesian inference. This means that the unknown parameters, the unknown functions and the physical noise processes are treated as random processes in the same joint probability space. The Bayesian approach provides a consistent way of computing the optimal filtering and smoothing estimates, which are optimal given the model assumptions and a consistent way of analyzing their uncertainties. The formal equations of the optimal Bayesian continuous-discrete filtering and smoothing solutions are well known, but the exact analytical solutions are available only for linear Gaussian models and for a few other restricted special cases. The main contributions of this thesis are to show how the recently developed discrete-time unscented Kalman filter, particle filter, and the corresponding smoothers can be applied in the continuous-discrete setting. The equations for the continuous-time unscented Kalman-Bucy filter are also derived. The estimation performance of the new filters and smoothers is tested using simulated data. Continuous-discrete filtering based solutions are also presented to the problems of tracking an unknown number of targets, estimating the spread of an infectious disease and to prediction of an unknown time series.reviewe

Robust filtering for bilinear uncertain stochastic discrete-time systems

Copyright [2002] IEEE. This material is posted here with permission of the IEEE. Such permission of the IEEE does not in any way imply IEEE endorsement of any of Brunel University's products or services. Internal or personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution must be obtained from the IEEE by writing to [email protected]. By choosing to view this document, you agree to all provisions of the copyright laws protecting it.This paper deals with the robust filtering problem for uncertain bilinear stochastic discrete-time systems with estimation error variance constraints. The uncertainties are allowed to be norm-bounded and enter into both the state and measurement matrices. We focus on the design of linear filters, such that for all admissible parameter uncertainties, the error state of the bilinear stochastic system is mean square bounded, and the steady-state variance of the estimation error of each state is not more than the individual prespecified value. It is shown that the design of the robust filters can be carried out by solving some algebraic quadratic matrix inequalities. In particular, we establish both the existence conditions and the explicit expression of desired robust filters. A numerical example is included to show the applicability of the present method

Robust filtering with randomly varying sensor delay: The finite-horizon case

Copyright [2009] IEEE. This material is posted here with permission of the IEEE. Such permission of the IEEE does not in any way imply IEEE endorsement of any of Brunel University's products or services. Internal or personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution must be obtained from the IEEE by writing to [email protected]. By choosing to view this document, you agree to all provisions of the copyright laws protecting it.In this paper, we consider the robust filtering problem for discrete time-varying systems with delayed sensor measurement subject to norm-bounded parameter uncertainties. The delayed sensor measurement is assumed to be a linear function of a stochastic variable that satisfies the Bernoulli random binary distribution law. An upper bound for the actual covariance of the uncertain stochastic parameter system is derived and used for estimation variance constraints. Such an upper bound is then minimized over the filter parameters for all stochastic sensor delays and admissible deterministic uncertainties. It is shown that the desired filter can be obtained in terms of solutions to two discrete Riccati difference equations of a form suitable for recursive computation in online applications. An illustrative example is presented to show the applicability of the proposed method

Recent advances on recursive filtering and sliding mode design for networked nonlinear stochastic systems: A survey

Copyright © 2013 Jun Hu et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Some recent advances on the recursive filtering and sliding mode design problems for nonlinear stochastic systems with network-induced phenomena are surveyed. The network-induced phenomena under consideration mainly include missing measurements, fading measurements, signal quantization, probabilistic sensor delays, sensor saturations, randomly occurring nonlinearities, and randomly occurring uncertainties. With respect to these network-induced phenomena, the developments on filtering and sliding mode design problems are systematically reviewed. In particular, concerning the network-induced phenomena, some recent results on the recursive filtering for time-varying nonlinear stochastic systems and sliding mode design for time-invariant nonlinear stochastic systems are given, respectively. Finally, conclusions are proposed and some potential future research works are pointed out.This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant nos. 61134009, 61329301, 61333012, 61374127 and 11301118, the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) of the UK under Grant no. GR/S27658/01, the Royal Society of the UK, and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation of Germany

Variance-constrained filtering for uncertain stochastic systems with missing measurements

Copyright [2003] IEEE. This material is posted here with permission of the IEEE. Such permission of the IEEE does not in any way imply IEEE endorsement of any of Brunel University's products or services. Internal or personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution must be obtained from the IEEE by writing to [email protected]. By choosing to view this document, you agree to all provisions of the copyright laws protecting it.In this note, we consider a new filtering problem for linear uncertain discrete-time stochastic systems with missing measurements. The parameter uncertainties are allowed to be norm-bounded and enter into the state matrix. The system measurements may be unavailable (i.e., missing data) at any sample time, and the probability of the occurrence of missing data is assumed to be known. The purpose of this problem is to design a linear filter such that, for all admissible parameter uncertainties and all possible incomplete observations, the error state of the filtering process is mean square bounded, and the steady-state variance of the estimation error of each state is not more than the individual prescribed upper bound. It is shown that, the addressed filtering problem can effectively be solved in terms of the solutions of a couple of algebraic Riccati-like inequalities or linear matrix inequalities. The explicit expression of the desired robust filters is parameterized, and an illustrative numerical example is provided to demonstrate the usefulness and flexibility of the proposed design approach

Recent advances on filtering and control for nonlinear stochastic complex systems with incomplete information: A survey

This Article is provided by the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund - Copyright @ 2012 Hindawi PublishingSome recent advances on the filtering and control problems for nonlinear stochastic complex systems with incomplete information are surveyed. The incomplete information under consideration mainly includes missing measurements, randomly varying sensor delays, signal quantization, sensor saturations, and signal sampling. With such incomplete information, the developments on various filtering and control issues are reviewed in great detail. In particular, the addressed nonlinear stochastic complex systems are so comprehensive that they include conventional nonlinear stochastic systems, different kinds of complex networks, and a large class of sensor networks. The corresponding filtering and control technologies for such nonlinear stochastic complex systems are then discussed. Subsequently, some latest results on the filtering and control problems for the complex systems with incomplete information are given. Finally, conclusions are drawn and several possible future research directions are pointed out.This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant nos. 61134009, 61104125, 61028008, 61174136, 60974030, and 61074129, the Qing Lan Project of Jiangsu Province of China, the Project sponsored by SRF for ROCS of SEM of China, the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council EPSRC of the UK under Grant GR/S27658/01, the Royal Society of the UK, and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation of Germany

A non-autonomous stochastic discrete time system with uniform disturbances

The main objective of this article is to present Bayesian optimal control over a class of non-autonomous linear stochastic discrete time systems with disturbances belonging to a family of the one parameter uniform distributions. It is proved that the Bayes control for the Pareto priors is the solution of a linear system of algebraic equations. For the case that this linear system is singular, we apply optimization techniques to gain the Bayesian optimal control. These results are extended to generalized linear stochastic systems of difference equations and provide the Bayesian optimal control for the case where the coefficients of these type of systems are non-square matrices. The paper extends the results of the authors developed for system with disturbances belonging to the exponential family

Robust filtering under randomly varying sensor delay with variance constraints

Copyright [2004] IEEE. This material is posted here with permission of the IEEE. Such permission of the IEEE does not in any way imply IEEE endorsement of any of Brunel University's products or services. Internal or personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution must be obtained from the IEEE by writing to [email protected]. By choosing to view this document, you agree to all provisions of the copyright laws protecting it.This paper deals with a new filtering problem for linear uncertain discrete-time stochastic systems with randomly varying sensor delay. The norm-bounded parameter uncertainties enter into the system matrix of the state space model. The system measurements are subject to randomly varying sensor delays, which often occur in information transmissions through networks. The problem addressed is the design of a linear filter such that, for all admissible parameter uncertainties and all probabilistic sensor delays, the error state of the filtering process is mean square bounded, and the steady-state variance of the estimation error for each state is not more than the individual prescribed upper bound. We show that the filtering problem under consideration can effectively be solved if there are positive definite solutions to a couple of algebraic Riccati-like inequalities or linear matrix inequalities. We also characterize the set of desired robust filters in terms of some free parameters. An illustrative numerical example is used to demonstrate the usefulness and flexibility of the proposed design approach

Variance-constrained H∞ filtering for a class of nonlinear time-varying systems with multiple missing measurements: The finite-horizon case

Copyright [2010] IEEE. This material is posted here with permission of the IEEE. Such permission of the IEEE does not in any way imply IEEE endorsement of any of Brunel University's products or services. Internal or personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution must be obtained from the IEEE by writing to [email protected]. By choosing to view this document, you agree to all provisions of the copyright laws protecting it.This paper is concerned with the robust H ∞ finite-horizon filtering problem for a class of uncertain nonlinear discrete time-varying stochastic systems with multiple missing measurements and error variance constraints. All the system parameters are time-varying and the uncertainty enters into the state matrix. The measurement missing phenomenon occurs in a random way, and the missing probability for each sensor is governed by an individual random variable satisfying a certain probabilistic distribution in the interval . The stochastic nonlinearities under consideration here are described by statistical means which can cover several classes of well-studied nonlinearities. Sufficient conditions are derived for a finite-horizon filter to satisfy both the estimation error variance constraints and the prescribed H ∞ performance requirement. These conditions are expressed in terms of the feasibility of a series of recursive linear matrix inequalities (RLMIs). Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed filter design scheme.This work was supported in part by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) of the U.K. by Grant GR/S27658/01, the Royal Society of the U.K., National Natural Science Foundation of China by Grants 60825303 and 60834003, National 973 Project of China by Grant 2009CB320600, Fok Ying Tung Education Foundation by Grant 111064, the Youth Science Fund of Heilongjiang Province of China by Grant QC2009C63, and by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation of Germany

Linear theory for filtering nonlinear multiscale systems with model error

We study filtering of multiscale dynamical systems with model error arising from unresolved smaller scale processes. The analysis assumes continuous-time noisy observations of all components of the slow variables alone. For a linear model with Gaussian noise, we prove existence of a unique choice of parameters in a linear reduced model for the slow variables. The linear theory extends to to a non-Gaussian, nonlinear test problem, where we assume we know the optimal stochastic parameterization and the correct observation model. We show that when the parameterization is inappropriate, parameters chosen for good filter performance may give poor equilibrium statistical estimates and vice versa. Given the correct parameterization, it is imperative to estimate the parameters simultaneously and to account for the nonlinear feedback of the stochastic parameters into the reduced filter estimates. In numerical experiments on the two-layer Lorenz-96 model, we find that parameters estimated online, as part of a filtering procedure, produce accurate filtering and equilibrium statistical prediction. In contrast, a linear regression based offline method, which fits the parameters to a given training data set independently from the filter, yields filter estimates which are worse than the observations or even divergent when the slow variables are not fully observed