Optimal treatment allocations in space and time for on-line control of an emerging infectious disease

A key component in controlling the spread of an epidemic is deciding where, whenand to whom to apply an intervention.We develop a framework for using data to informthese decisionsin realtime.We formalize a treatment allocation strategy as a sequence of functions, oneper treatment period, that map up-to-date information on the spread of an infectious diseaseto a subset of locations where treatment should be allocated. An optimal allocation strategyoptimizes some cumulative outcome, e.g. the number of uninfected locations, the geographicfootprint of the disease or the cost of the epidemic. Estimation of an optimal allocation strategyfor an emerging infectious disease is challenging because spatial proximity induces interferencebetween locations, the number of possible allocations is exponential in the number oflocations, and because disease dynamics and intervention effectiveness are unknown at outbreak.We derive a Bayesian on-line estimator of the optimal allocation strategy that combinessimulation–optimization with Thompson sampling.The estimator proposed performs favourablyin simulation experiments. This work is motivated by and illustrated using data on the spread ofwhite nose syndrome, which is a highly fatal infectious disease devastating bat populations inNorth America

Activity‑driven network modeling and control of the spread of two concurrent epidemic strains

The emergency generated by the current COVID-19 pandemic has claimed millions of lives worldwide. There have been multiple waves across the globe that emerged as a result of new variants, due to arising from unavoidable mutations. The existing network toolbox to study epidemic spreading cannot be readily adapted to the study of multiple, coexisting strains. In this context, particularly lacking are models that could elucidate re-infection with the same strain or a different strain—phenomena that we are seeing experiencing more and more with COVID-19. Here, we establish a novel mathematical model to study the simultaneous spreading of two strains over a class of temporal networks. We build on the classical susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed model, by incorporating additional states that account for infections and re-infections with multiple strains. The temporal network is based on the activity-driven network paradigm, which has emerged as a model of choice to study dynamic processes that unfold at a time scale comparable to the network evolution. We draw analytical insight from the dynamics of the stochastic network systems through a mean-field approach, which allows for characterizing the onset of different behavioral phenotypes (non-epidemic, epidemic, and endemic). To demonstrate the practical use of the model, we examine an intermittent stay-at-home containment strategy, in which a fraction of the population is randomly required to isolate for a fixed period of time

Discovery of a missing disease spreader

This study presents a method to discover an outbreak of an infectious disease in a region for which data are missing, but which is at work as a disease spreader. Node discovery for the spread of an infectious disease is defined as discriminating between the nodes which are neighboring to a missing disease spreader node, and the rest, given a dataset on the number of cases. The spread is described by stochastic differential equations. A perturbation theory quantifies the impact of the missing spreader on the moments of the number of cases. Statistical discriminators examine the mid-body or tail-ends of the probability density function, and search for the disturbance from the missing spreader. They are tested with computationally synthesized datasets, and applied to the SARS outbreak and flu pandemic.Comment: in pres

Applications Of Operations Research/Statistics In Infection Outbreak Management

Operations Research (OR) can be identified as the discipline that uses statistics, mathematics, computer-modelling and similar science methodology for decision making (Luss, Rosenwein, 1997). OR, powered with statistics and models, is a high potential engine for use in many areas that require evidence-based or model-based decision making. One of the most promising areas is specifically the infection outbreak management. Surprisingly, very little OR/statistics research has been aimed at infection outbreak management; usually, other general epidemiology issues were tackled in models. However, OR/statistics models for use in the infection outbreak management exist and can be effectively used in public policy and outbreak management practice. Probably, key reasons for that little involvement of OR/statistics in the infection outbreaks management is low awareness among the specialist community of OR/statistics use and benefits for their decision making. Up to the moment, there is lack of contemporary review of OR/statistics-applied models used for the infection outbreak management decision making. The present paper aimed at filling that gap and providing two benefits to involved health care managers and academics: first, developing awareness on the use and benefits of OR/statistics models for the infection outbreak management decision making, and second, for plotting the current state of affairs to highlight research opportunities for developing the field by academics and epidemic control professionals

Challenges and Future Directions in Pandemic Control

In this letter, we describe some of the most important objectives and needs in pandemic control. We identify the main open problems in the different stages of the decision making process, as well as the most significant challenges to overcome them, leading to promising future research di rections. We provide a concise review of the most recent literature describing such challenges, highlighting the main results, achievements and methodologies that can be employed to address them. In particular, we discuss some promising recent techniques that have been successfully applied to the Covid-19 pandemic and could be very valuable in the design of novel methodologies to face future pandemic