Unexpected Management Choices When Accounting for Uncertainty in Ecosystem Service Tradeoff Analyses

Resource management and conservation increasingly focus on ecosystem service provisioning and potential tradeoffs among services under different management actions. Application of bioeconomic approaches to tradeoffs assessment is touted as a way to find win-win outcomes or avoid unnecessary stakeholder conflict. Yet, nearly all assessments to date have ignored inherent uncertainties in the provision and valuation of services. We incorporate uncertainty into the ecosystem services analytical framework and show how such inclusion improves optimal decision making. In particular, we show: (1) “suboptimal” solutions can become optimal when uncertainties are accounted for; (2) uncertainty paradoxically makes stakeholders value conservation despite their lack of preference for it; and (3) substantial losses or missed gains in ecosystem service provisioning can be incurred when uncertainty is ignored. Our results highlight the urgency of accounting for uncertainties in ecosystem services in tradeoff assessments given the widespread use of this approach by government agencies and conservation organizations

Aid Selectivity According to Augmented Criteria

A dominant trend in the literature maintains that donor assistance should be targeted to poor countries with sound institutions and policies. In this context, donor selectivity refers to what extent aid is allocated according to the principles of this "canonical" model. This paper shows that it is legitimate for donors to simultaneously use other selectivity criteria corresponding either to expected factors of aid effectiveness or to handicaps to development. It is notably argued that vulnerability to exogenous shocks and low level of human capital should be considered as selectivity criteria. Taking these other criteria into account dramatically changes the assessment of donor selectivity.Aid selectivity, aid effectiveness, vulnerability, handicaps, least developed

Aid Selectivity According to Augmented Criteria

A dominant trend in the literature maintains that donor assistance should be targeted to poor countries with sound institutions and policies. In this context, donor selectivity refers to what extent aid is allocated according to the principles of this "canonical" model. This paper shows that it is legitimate for donors to simultaneously use other selectivity criteria corresponding either to expected factors of aid effectiveness or to handicaps to development. It is notably argued that vulnerability to exogenous shocks and low level of human capital should be considered as selectivity criteria. Taking these other criteria into account dramatically changes the assessment of donor selectivity.Aid selectivity, aid effectiveness, vulnerability, handicaps, least developed countries.

Integrating multiple criteria decision analysis in participatory forest planning

Forest planning in a participatory context often involves multiple stakeholders with conflicting interests. A promising approach for handling these complex situations is to integrate participatory planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The objective of this paper is to analyze strengths and weaknesses of such an integrated approach, focusing on how the use of MCDA has influenced the participatory process. The paper outlines a model for a participatory MCDA process with five steps: stakeholder analysis, structuring of the decision problem, generation of alternatives, elicitation of preferences, and ranking of alternatives. This model was applied in a case study of a planning process for the urban forest in Lycksele, Sweden. In interviews with stakeholders, criteria for four different social groups were identified. Stakeholders also identified specific areas important to them and explained what activities the areas were used for and the forest management they wished for there. Existing forest data were combined with information from interviews to create a map in which the urban forest was divided into zones of different management classes. Three alternative strategic forest plans were produced based on the zonal map. The stakeholders stated their preferences individually by the Analytic Hierarchy Process in inquiry forms and a ranking of alternatives and consistency ratios were determined for each stakeholder. Rankings of alternatives were aggregated; first, for each social group using the arithmetic mean, and then an overall aggregated ranking was calculated from the group rankings using the weighted arithmetic mean. The participatory MCDA process in Lycksele is assessed against five social goals: incorporating public values into decisions, improving the substantive quality of decisions, resolving conflict among competing interests, building trust in institutions, and educating and informing the public. The results and assessment of the case study support the integration of participatory planning and MCDA as a viable option for handling complex forest-management situations. Key issues related to the MCDA methodology that need to be explored further were identified: 1) The handling of place-specific criteria, 2) development of alternatives, 3) the aggregation of individual preferences into a common preference, and 4) application and evaluation of the integrated approach in real case studies

Aid Selectivity According to Augmented Criteria

A dominant trend in the literature maintains that donor assistance should be targeted to poor countries with sound institutions and policies. In this context, donor selectivity refers to what extent aid is allocated according to the principles of this "canonical" model. This paper shows that it is legitimate for donors to simultaneously use other selectivity criteria corresponding either to expected factors of aid effectiveness or to handicaps to development. It is notably argued that vulnerability to exogenous shocks and low level of human capital should be considered as selectivity criteria. Taking these other criteria into account dramatically changes the assessment of donor selectivity.Aid selectivity;aid effectiveness;vulnerability;handicaps;least developed

Social preferences, accountability, and wage bargaining

We assess the extent of preferences for employment in a collective wage bargaining situation with heterogeneous workers. We vary the size of the union and introduce a treatment mechanism transforming the voting game into an individual allocation task. Our results show that highly productive workers do not take employment of low productive workers into account when making wage proposals, regardless of whether insiders determine the wage or all workers. The level of pro-social preferences is small in the voting game, while it increases as the game is transformed into an individual allocation task. We interpret this as an accountability effect

Intertemporal accounting of climate change - Harmonizing economic efficiency and climate stewardship

Continuing a discussion on the intertemporal accounting of climate-change damages initiated by Nordhaus, Heal and Brown in response to the recent demonstration of Hasselmann et al. that standard exponential discounting applied uniformly to all goods and services invariably leads to a `climate catastrophe' in cost-benefit analyses, it is argued that (1) there exists no economically satisfactory alternative to cost-benefit analysis for the determination of optimal climate protection strategies, and (2) it is essential to allow for the different long-term evolution of climate damage costs relative to mitigation costs in determining the optimal cost-benefit solution. A climate catastrophe can be avoided only if it is assumed that climate damage costs increase significantly in the long term relative to mitigation costs. Cost-benefit analysis is regarded here in the generalized sense of optimizing a social welfare function that incorporates all relevant `quality-of-life' factors, including not only consumption and the value of the environment, but also the ethical values of equitable intertemporal and intrasocietal distribution. Thus, economic efficiency and climate stewardship are not regarded as conflicting goals, but as synonyms for a single encompassing economic optimization exercise. The same reasoning applies generally to the problem of sustainable development. To quantify the concept of sustainable development in cost-benefit analyses, the projected time evolution of the future values of natural resources and the environment (judged by the present generation, acting as representative agents of future generations) must be related to the time-evolution of all other relevant quality-of-life factors. Different ethical interpretations of the concept of sustainable development can be readily operationalized by incorporation in a generalized cost-benefit analysis in which the evolution paths of all relevant material and ethical values are explicitly specified

Spectacular pehnomena and limits to rationality in genetic and cultural evolution

In studies of both animal and human behaviour, game theory is used as a tool for understanding strategies that appear in interactions between individuals. Game theory focuses on adaptive behaviour, which can be attained only at evolutionary equilibrium. Here we suggest that behaviour appearing during interactions is often outside the scope of such analysis. In many types of interaction, conflicts of interest exist between players, fueling the evolution of manipulative strategies. Such strategies evolve out of equilibrium, commonly appearing as spectacular morphology or behaviour with obscure meaning, to which other players may react in non-adaptive, irrational way approach, and outline the conditions in which evolutionary equilibria cannot be maintained. Evidence from studies of biological interactions seems to support the view that behaviour is often not at equilibrium. This also appears to be the case for many human cultural traits, which have spread rapidly despite the fact that they have a negative influence on reproduction